The NFL is much less predictable than perhaps any other sport. Unlike college football, projecting the top four to five teams every season is almost impossible. Sure, most can project that the Chiefs will be back in the Playoffs and that the Carolina Panthers will miss out, but for the teams ranked 3-20, there is a lot of parody and injury or two could be a difference between winning a division and missing out the Playoffs completely.
This is perhaps the NFL’s biggest strength. In college football, for example, 13 of the 18 teams in the Big 10 know that they aren’t winning the Big 10 and will likely be out of the Playoff discussion. Of course, fans will still show up and watch, but if they lose two or more games, their season is over. In the NFL, a team can start 2-4 and still have a pathway to the Super Bowl.
Because of this parody, new NFL teams make the playoffs every year. For reference, last year, six teams made the 2023 Playoffs that didn’t make it in 2022. Considering that only 14 teams make the playoffs, that is a high percentage.
Connor Orr, Sports Illustrated writer, once again projects that the NFL will see six teams make the Playoffs in 2024 that didn’t this past year.
AFC Teams
New York Jets – Taking Miami Dolphins Spot (NFL)
The Jets are loaded on the defensive side of the ball, and if they have a quarterback who can play even a little better than what they got last year, they very easily could find themselves in the playoff picture. The obvious starter is Aaron Rodgers, but the question is whether the 41-year-old can play at a high enough level with his recent injury and age becoming a concern.
For Miami, the concern is that they have shown they struggle to play well late in the season, and with Tagovailoa getting his big pay raise, it likely means that depth will become an issue since backups, and even some starters, won’t be paid as much.
BIG year for Garrett Wilson coming with Aaron Rodgers back 💥#Jets pic.twitter.com/DVRxGtGWSk
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) June 28, 2024
Los Angeles Chargers – Taking Pittsburgh Steelers Spot
This one is odd, considering that Justin Herbert has not been able to lead the Chargers up to this point and that there is a new Head Coach in LA. The article points to the Chargers’ easy schedule at the start of the season and suggests that this may lead to confidence and momentum to do enough to take a playoff spot.
On the other hand, the Steelers play in a very deep division that will be tough to succeed in, even with an improved offense.
Indianapolis Colts – Taking Houston Texans Spot
This is perhaps Orr’s most interesting take in the article, but the argument is fair. He claims that although the Texans were good last year, they benefited from playing several backup quarterbacks and took advantage of some of the mediocre teams in the NFL, essentially not having bad losses.
On the other hand, the Colts looked good with Anthony Richardson in the short time they had him. The argument is that the Texans’ tougher schedule this year will just prevent them from making the Playoffs.
It is worth noting these two square off in the first game of the season.
Anthony Richardson appears to be back to throwing.
Why are the #Colts so bullish on Richardson as a thrower?https://t.co/2qsKr8Vx0G
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) June 28, 2024
Cincinnati Bengals – Taking Cleveland Browns Spot
This makes a ton of sense and doesn’t need a deep dive. Joe Burrow, considered one of the best quarterbacks in the game, was injured last season, which likely led to the team missing the playoffs. The Browns got into the playoffs off of luck, to some extent. Joe Flacco played surprisingly well, and the team ended their season playing three of their last four games against teams that missed the playoffs.
NFC Teams
New Orleans Saints – Taking Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spot
Orr doesn’t seem to think that the Saints will necessarily be a great team; rather, they will be the best team in a weak division. Most seem to think that the Falcons will be the best team in this division, but there is also some understanding that with a new QB and coach, there could be growing pains early in the season. With three teams that very likely could end up around .500, the Saints, with their experience, get the nod.
NFL analytics expert predicts New Orleans Saints win total for 2024 season https://t.co/n2wV5JMEz2
— New Orleans Saints 2.0 (@SAINTSpeeps) June 6, 2024
Chicago Bears – Taking Dallas Cowboys Spot
Orr’s argument to put the Bears over the Cowboys is very interesting and in-depth. Rather than summarizing it, here is the full reasoning:
“I think there’s a good deal of positivity in Chicago surrounding Caleb Williams. His early dealings with the organization have been overwhelmingly positive, the Bears upgraded the offense and Shane Waldron is a really skilled designer of offenses. Peppered throughout Chicago’s schedule are plenty of winnable games and what I’d like to consider “breaks,” though I know the mere mention of any NFL game as easy would cause a coach’s blood to boil. While the end of Williams’s first season will be brutal—with dates against Detroit (twice!), San Francisco and Green Bay—it will be the end of Williams’s first season. In theory, he’ll be better than in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans.
The Cowboys catch a stray bullet here, though I’ve thought all offseason that this team did not do enough to guarantee itself a playoff spot. Dallas isn’t markedly better than the Giants anymore. The team’s list of opponents includes the Browns, 49ers, Lions, Ravens, Bengals and Atlanta Falcons, among others. The Cowboys could be considered an underdog in almost every single one of them. They have a lame-duck coach, a taxed staff on uncertain footing and a decaying foundation on which to support a great quarterback, wide receiver and pass rusher. That worries me. “