Aaron Rodgers seems like the favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award next season. After all, he plays for the biggest market team and is one of the biggest names in American sports. Also, given his story of being traded from Green Bay, being praised as the savior of the Jets, and only getting to play four plays last year before getting injured, he seems like a shoo-in.
In the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friends.”
The Clear Frontrunner Didn’t Win Last Year
Last year, everyone thought that Damar Hamlin was going to be the unanimous winner of the award after his historic comeback from his cardiac arrest on the field the previous season. Yet it was Joe Flacco who came back at the end of the 2023 season, going 4-1 to finish the regular season and lead the Browns to their first playoff appearance since 2020.
The story of Damar Hamlin was still the best in recent NFL history, but when push came to shove, it was tough to justify giving the award to Hamlin, who only recorded two regular-season tackles, over Flacco, who literally took the Cleveland Browns from a 7-5 borderline Playoff team to an 11-5 solid playoff team before missing the final game of the regular season.
Even though nobody wanted to take away the award from Hamlin, there was just too much there for Flacco not to win the award.
Could the same happen in 2024?
If Aaron Rodgers Has a Great Year, He Will be Immoratalized
The New York Jets are dying to have a good season. They haven’t been to the Playoffs in over a decade, and when Aaron Rodgers got signed by the Jets, you would have thought they had already won the Super Bowl. Things haven’t worked out as planned to this point, but if Rodgers can even take the Jets to their first playoff game since pre-butt fumble Mark Sanchez, the New York media would be so influential that Rodgers would win the award.
Unless there is a player who wins the MVP.
Quietly in Cincinnati, another player is looking to win the award himself. After being injured in the 10th game of the season, Joe Burrow watched the team go from 5-4 (with a very winnable back end of the schedule) to a 9-8 overall finish, last in the division.
Burrow is the kind of player who can lead the Bengals to an AFC North Championship (in a loaded division) it would make Burrow a very strong candidate to win the award himself. It may be good enough to be a real NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate.
SI Writer Conor Orr Predicts Aaron Rodgers Will Not Win Award
SI writer Conor Orr released the ‘100 Predictions of the NFL Season’, and one of his predictions is that Joe Burrow will have a story similar to that of Joe Flacco and take the award from Rodgers. He writes the following:
“As of now, he (Rodgers) appears to be the favorite, with Joe Burrow considered a close second. However, Joe Flacco’s magic destroyed the heartwarming conclusion of the Damar Hamlin saga. So, truly, anything is possible.”
Unless both players play terribly, I don’t see any other player in the running for this award. Of course, nobody saw Joe Flacco coming either, but this isn’t a Damar Hamlin scenario with a good but not elite player. These are two potential Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks looking to return to their old ways.
Here are six of the most likely scenarios to play out this season, and who would win the award.
- Scenario 1 – Rodgers and Burrow both lead teams to Playoffs – 100% Rodgers
- Scernio 2 – Rodgers leads Jets to Playoffs, Burrow does not – 100% Rodgers
- Scenario 3 – Rodgers leads Jets to Playoffs, Burrow leads Bengals to AFC North Championship – Rodgers 75%
- Scenario 4 – Rodgers does not lead team to Playoffs, Burrow does – Burrow 80%
- Scenario 5 – Rodgers does not lead team to Playoffs, Burrow leads Bengals to AFC North Championship – Burrow 100%
- Scenario 6 – Both teams miss the Playoffs – Rodgers 50%, other player 50%
Orr believes that the Jets will likely miss out on the NFL Playoffs this year or that the Bengals will just be so dominant that Burrow will be undeniably the better candidate.
