In this edition of Lucas’ Locks, I’ll be combing through the Big Ten to find my favorite win total bets. As always, I will only recommend bets that I’d feel strongly enough about to bet my own money on and I will get my win total numbers from BetMGM. Now let’s go get these Big Ten win total locks!
Illinois: Over/Under 4.5 Wins
Bret Bielema had a solid debut campaign for the Fighting Illini in 2021. He took over a program in rough shape, and was able to string together a 5-7 season despite getting very little from the QB position. Illinois likes to run the ball and play solid defense to win games, and with Syracuse transfer QB Tommy Devito, I think they can have even more success this year. If Devito can just be an average Big Ten QB, this Illinois team can make it to a bowl game.
Illinois actually has a sneaky good defense led by up and coming Defensive Coordinator Ryan Walters. Walters put together a top 30 defense in his first year on the job, and should be able to replicate last year’s success as the players become more comfortable in their second year in his system.
The schedule sets up nicely for Illinois to start off strong, as they open with Wyoming at home followed by Indiana on the road. Then they host Virginia and Chattanooga, so it’s not out of the question they could start 4-0. Even if you say they starts 3-1, they only need to win 3 more games the rest of the year to reach a bowl game, which I think is within reach. They only need to win five games for me to cash this win total, so I’ll take the Over 4.5 for the fighting Bret Bielema’s.
The Pick: Over 4.5 Wins for Illinois
Michigan State: Over/Under 7.5 Wins
Mel Tucker has undoubtedly been a good hire for MSU after two consecutive years of beating preseason expectations. In 2021, MSU soared to an 11-2 record where they beat Pitt in the Peach Bowl. However; the Spartans also had some fortuitous bounces go their way to reach 11 wins. Nebraska had a last-minute special teams gaffe to blow one game, and in the Michigan game there was a highly questionable TD wiped off the board for the Wolverines. I’m not totaling hating on what the Spartans did in 2021, but even honest Michigan State fans would tell you they weren’t quite as impressive as their 11-2 record showed. Vegas seems to agree with me, and that’s why the win total is only at 7.5 despite them winning 11 last season.
The Spartan pass defense still has some serious questions as they were among the worst in the country in 2022, and while Kenneth Walker was a tremendous player for their offense, he masked a lot of the issues with the Spartan Offensive Line. I like Payton Thorne at QB but he loses a top target in Jalen Nailor to the NFL Draft. Without Walker in the backfield, the pressure will be on Thorne to take his game to the next level in 2022. Can he do that? Maybe, but without a dominant presence at RB, I think the MSU offense won’t be as balanced as it was last year.
In order to get to 8 wins, they’d have to win all the games they should including Western Michigan, Arkon, Washington, Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana. From there, they play Minnesota at home, travel to Maryland, then host Wisconsin and Ohio State in back to back games before traveling to Ann Arbor to play Michigan. That three game stretch against the Badgers, Buckeyes, and Wolverines could be tough for them as they’d likely to be underdogs in all three contests. They also close out the regular season with another tough matchup at Penn State. I got 6 “Should Wins,” and 4 “Likely Losses.” To get this over on the win total, they’d need to win in an upset somewhere, or go 2-0 in what I called toss-ups which I think is unlikely.
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins for Michigan State
Wisconsin: Over/Under 8.5 Wins
The Badgers were a disappointing team in 2021, as they finished 9-4 overall but only 6-3 in the Big Ten. They lost Penn State, Notre Dame, and Michigan all in the early going. then though, they quietly finished 7-1 to close the regular season, as stud Freshman RB Braelon Allen really came on strong midway through the season. Once they got Allen rolling, the Badgers looked like a completely different team. The defense is always nasty under one of the best Defensive Coordinators in the country in Jim Leonhard. With Allen back as a Sophomore, and returning QB Graham Mertz getting a fresh start in 2022, I think the Badgers will once again rule the Big Ten West.
The schedule isn’t great, as they have to travel to Ohio State, to Michigan State, and to Iowa. However I do think they can win on the road in East Lansing and/or at Iowa, and with the rest of their tougher games coming at home, there’s an easy path here to a 10-win season. I only need them to go 9-3 to cash this over, so I’ll take that and feel pretty good about doing so.
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins for Wisconsin
Penn State: Over/Under 8.5 Wins
Penn State finished as a massive disappointment in 2021 where they fell to a 7-6 record. A deeper look under the hood though shows that the Nittany Lions were playing like a Top 10 team before Sean Clifford got hurt, and the season derailed from there. I don’t actually think James Franklin is a good in-game coach, so while I’m not confident they can contend in the Big Ten East, I do think the roster is too good to have another subpar year.
The schedule isn’t overly difficult, but they do travel to Auburn in the non-conference schedule. I’m not high on Auburn, but winning that game on the road will be tough no matter what. They get their annual clash with the Buckeyes at home, but have to go to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines. The win total for me essentially comes down to the Auburn game. If they beat Auburn, this team could reach 10 wins. If they lose to Auburn, it’ll likely be 9-3 at best. I think they can get the early season win against the Tigers and finish off at 10-2 in a nice bounceback year in Happy Valley.
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins for Penn State
Michigan: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
With my last selection of the Big Ten, I’m looking at the Michigan Wolverines. Coming off a brilliant 2021, I can see how this team is a candidate to fall back into their usual range of 9-10 wins that they’ve been at for most of the Jim Harbaugh tenure. But, I think this team really found something in 2021 and can successfully replicate the game plan in future seasons that can lead this program to another tier in the college football pecking order. The roster is as good as it’s ever been under Jim Harbaugh for the 2022 Wolverines, and the schedule is Charmin soft as well.
They host the powerhouses of Colorado State, Hawaii, and Uconn in the non-conference schedule. They get both Michigan State and Penn State at home, which leaves their only real road tests coming at Iowa and at Ohio State. With that schedule, I genuinely don’t see how this team finishes with less than 10 wins, with 11-1 being the most likely outcome in my eyes. I wouldn’t even rule out 12-0 either, as the Buckeyes will need to get their defense back in order to reclaim their role as the top dawg in the Big Ten. Give me the over here for the Wolverines.
The Pick: Over 9.5 Wins for Michigan