On Wednesday night, the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4-1) will visit the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4). Jacksonville State took down Sam Houston State 35-28 in overtime in their previous matchup. The Gamecocks finished the game on a 28-7 run, earning their second win in conference play. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee fell to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 31-10 last Thursday. The Blue Raiders lost a fumble and threw two picks in the defeat.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Odds and Match Details
Team | Spread | Total | MoneyLine |
Jacksonville State | +3 -110 |
O52
-110 |
+124 |
Middle Tennessee | -3 -110 |
U52
-110 |
-148 |
** Odds Subject to Change** |
Fixture: Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee
Date and Time: October 5, 2023, at 8:00 p.m. EST
Location: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium
Field Surface: Shaw Sports Legion 46 (Turf)
Weather: Sunny, 69 degrees
Key Stats
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State scores 27.6 points per game, the third-highest mark in the C-USA. However, they have struggled mightily to throw in 2023. Quarterbacks Logan Smothers and Zion Webb have completed less than 60% of their passes but have thrown five touchdowns against one pick in a run-heavy offense. The Gamecocks average a ludicrous 224 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per attempt. They also lead the C-USA in the fewest turnovers committed per game metric.
The Gamecocks have been excellent on defense in 2023. They allow just 15 points per game, the best mark in the C-USA. They hold opposing passers to under a 60% completion percentage and 200 passing yards per game. They are excellent against the rush, keeping opposing backfields to a C-USA-low 2.6 yards per attempt. They are in the top third in the conference in fewest yards allowed per game and turnovers forced.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are one of three teams in the C-USA to score under 20 points per game (18.8). The passing attack has been solid, with quarterback Nicholas Vattiato throwing for 1,168 yards and seven scores against four picks. He has completed 68% of his passes. However, the Blue Raiders have averaged just 4.2 yards per rush attempt. Additionally, they average nearly one fumble lost and one interception thrown per game.
Middle Tennessee State coughs up the most points per game in the conference (31). They allow more than two passing touchdowns per game on a 67% completion percentage. However, the rushing defense has been much better. They keep opponents to 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.
Game Prediction
I like the under in this Conference USA tilt. They must slow down their rushing attack if Middle Tennessee wants to keep it close against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. Fortunately for MTSU, they do well stopping the run, an absolute strength of the Gamecocks. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has struggled with offensive consistency all season, so they should have a relatively low ceiling for their offensive output. With both teams so good against the run, I like this game to go under the posted total.