The Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) travel to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Gophers (7-3) on Saturday at 4:00 pm (EST) at Huntington Bank Stadium. Minnesota is a 2.5-point favorite and is given a 68.0% chance to win according to ESPN’s FPI.
The matchup is key as both teams still seek to claim the Big 10 west title. Since Illinois plays #3 Michigan this week (and will likely lose), it would mean that if Iowa wins, they control their own destiny. If Minnesota wins they would still need Purdue to lose, who would be in control of their own destiny. Regardless, the winner of this game is either in first or second place in the west. With that let’s take a look at Iowa vs. Minnesota.
Iowa
Iowa extended their win streak to three last week as they defeated Wisconsin 24-10. Iowa looks to continue their winning ways as they take on the Gophers. With the Fighting Illini taking on #3 Michigan on Saturday (in which they should lose) it will open the door for Iowa to claim the west if they can win out, starting with the Gophers. A win for them would put them in control of their own destiny and get them to 7-4. A loss would eliminate them from the Big 10 west race and drop them to 6-5.
What To Watch
What I will be watching is how quarterback Spencer Petras plays. Over the last three weeks it looks like Iowa found an offensive groove scoring more points and gaining more yards per game than on average this season. A lot of this was due to Petras’s play. During the last three games Petras has thrown for 506 yards, averaging 168.6 yards per game and three touchdowns. On the year Petras has thrown for 1,495 yards, five touchdowns, and five interceptions.
During the last three games he has thrown for around a third of his total passing yards and most of his touchdowns during the stretch. The Hawkeyes are going to need him to keep up this level of play if they not only want to beat the Gophers but likely win the Big 10 west.
Biggest Question
Can the Iowa offense move the ball on a very good Minnesota defense? As mentioned above, the play of Petras will be a huge factor in this game. While Northwestern, Purdue, and Wisconsin might not have the best defense, the Gophers have one of the best in the nation. Minnesota this year allows 13.1 points per game (5.3 over their last three games) and 274.0 yards of total offense (167.2 passing and 106.8 rushing).
Iowa will need to do what they do best, which is to allow the defense and special teams to put the offense in positions to score. If they can’t do that it could be problematic for the Hawkeyes. Their offense isn’t great averaging 251.1 yards of total offense with 152.7 passing and 98.4 rushing. They must find ways to move the ball and score. They cannot play into the Gophers hand and allow them to have prolonged drives where they score points, that’s how you lose this game.
Minnesota
The Minnesota Gophers come into this game having won their last three games after defeating Northwestern 31-3. The Gophers now look to snap their seven-game losing streak to Iowa this week. Iowa won last year’s meeting 27-22. A win for the Gophers puts them at 8-3 with a chance to win the Big 10 west pending losses by Illinois and Purdue. If they win, it will most likely put Purdue in the driver’s seat to win the division. A loss sends Minnesota to 7-4, extending their losing streak to Iowa to eight games and officially out of the Big 10 west race.
What To Watch
What I’ll be watching is the Gophers defense. Yes, Iowa’s offense has been looking a lot better since they lost to Ohio State. The Hawkeyes during their last three games are averaging 27 points per game with 306.6 yards of total offense. On the year the offense is averaging 17.9 points per game and 251.1 yards of total offense (152.7 passing and 98.4 rushing).
The Gophers on the other hand allow 13.1 points per game with 274.0 yards of total offense with 167.2 passing and 106.8 rushing. Iowa has struggled all year to move the ball on offense and has relied heavily on defense and special teams to aid their offense. If the Gophers can avoid turning the ball over and work the field position game, it will give them the best chance at winning the game. If the offense turns the ball over in bad positions and doesn’t do much to help their defense out, the Hawkeyes could be looking to extend their winning streak to nine in the series.
Biggest Question
If Iowa stops the run can the Gophers pass the ball effectively enough to win the game? Iowa this year allows 88.6 yards rushing per game. The Gophers on the other hand average 221.2 yards rushing per game (at least 100 of that being by Mohamed Ibrahim). Ibrahim is the heart of the offense and the Gophers have seen firsthand what happens when he doesn’t play or struggles. So far this year Ibrahim has rushed for 1,261 yards on 238 carries, with 18 touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
If the Hawkeyes can find ways to consistently slow him down and limit the Gophers rushing attack it could spell trouble for Minnesota. The Gophers average 182.5 yards passing per game this year and have struggled greatly when it comes to the passing game. If they can’t figure out how to make plays through the air (against a very good Iowa secondary) then they could see problems and stall out a lot.
Also, last week backup freshman quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis started for the Gophers. Right now, there is no information on who will start for the Gophers this week. Tanner Morgan’s injury has been a bit of a secret, but many suspect it was another concussion. If Morgan is healthy, we still don’t know if he has the starting job. Kaliakmanis has played well in the absence of Morgan. Keep an eye out on who will start this week as right now it is anyone’s guess.
Bold Prediction
My bold prediction for this game is that both teams don’t have more than 250 yards of total offense. Both teams’ offenses have struggled. While the Gophers can put up big numbers, they have struggled to score against good teams and defenses this year. Iowa on the other hand has struggled to generate any offense for a lot of the year. Both teams hold their opponents under 14-points and 275 yards of total offense. Saturday will be a defensive showdown between two of some of the best defenses in the country. In the end it will come down to which one can make a play to help out the offense.
Betting
The following betting lines are according to ESPN’s Pick Center.
Spread:
- Iowa: +2.5
- Minnesota: -2.5
Money Line:
- Iowa: +120
- Minnesota: -140
Over/Under: 32.5
Where To Watch
Iowa vs. Minnesota will air on Fox at 4:00 pm (EST) on Saturday. Commentating the game will be Joe Davis (play-by-play), Brock Huard (analyst), and Bruce Feldman (sideline). You can watch the game on the Fox Sports app or on FoxSports.com. The game will also be on NFL Sunday Ticket (Directv). Streaming services that have Fox are fubo TV, Hulu (with live TV), Sling TV, and Youtube TV.
Prediction
The battle for Floyd will be a defensive showcase. Each team is great on defense and doesn’t allow their opponents to score a lot. It’ll start out slow and ugly. Eventually each team will find some momentum and begin to move the ball, getting a pair of field goals each. In the second half Minnesota will make the needed adjustments and get a touchdown. It will be too late as Iowa scores in the wading minutes in the fourth. In the end P.J. Fleck will finally get the one win that has eluded him since coming to Minnesota and beat Iowa and bring Floyd home for the first time in seven years. Minnesota wins 19-13.
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