Underdog’s Best Ball Mania is an ever-evolving landscape. The ADPs of players can shift dramatically from week to week. As we sift through the Best Ball drafts and identify movement, we want to bring some trends to your attention:
Best Ball Trends:
Trey Lance, QB 49ers (ADP 88)
Trey Lance continues to see his ADP rise, but don’t expect this trend to end anytime soon. Drafters remain reluctant to push Trey Lance since Jimmy Garoppolo remains under contract. This statement is not an official report, but there is no way that Jimmy Garoppolo is a 49er come the start of the season. I would anticipate that Trey Lance continues to rise in ADP to the point that he is neck and neck with Jalen Hurts in the 6th round.
Dak Prescott, QB Cowboys (ADP 85.8) and Tom Brady, QB Bucs (ADP 79)
With every action comes an equal and opposite reaction. As Trey Lance continues to rise in ADP, we are seeing Dak Prescott and Tom Brady fall in ADP. What does that mean for Best Ball drafters in constructing our teams? Teams looking to stack Dak Prescott with CeeDee Lamb at the end of round seven/beginning of round eight, you still have that option. If teams want to stack Dak Prescott with Dalton Schultz, you have a shot of getting Dak Prescott at the end of round eight. Teams who wanted to stack Tom Brady with Mike Evans had to select Brady in the 7th round. You have a realistic shot of selecting Tom Brady in the late 8th-round range. Paying attention to the shift in ADP allows you to add value to your stacks and your teams.
Kyle Pitts, TE Falcons (ADP 32)
Many in the Best Ball field have prioritized selecting Kyle Pitts early in the 3rd round, identifying him as a potential difference-maker. Oddly enough, and this is clearly draft-dependent, I have seen Kyle Pitts slide into the early 4th-round range. Not all drafters are as enamored with the sophomore sensation at TE. If you can be patient, you could reap excellent value on Kyle Pitts in the 4th.
Nick Chubb, RB Browns (ADP 26.6)
The news of a potential Deshaun Watson suspension hangs in the balance. Depending on the day, you hear various reports of a possible season-long suspension. The current ADP on Nick Chubb reflects the uncertainty of the Brown’s quarterback situation. There have been drafts where Nick Chubb slips an entire round in ADP, I am assuming, based on the latest reports. Take advantage of a sliding Nick Chubb if he makes it to the latter portion of round three.
Ronald Jones Jr., RB Chiefs (ADP 129.8)
In the coming weeks, we will begin to receive camp reports. If we receive some positive news on Ronald Jones, that he is running with the first unit, his ADP will rise.
Alexander Mattison, RB Vikings (ADP 123)
Like Ronald Jones, expect to hear more news regarding the Vikings using Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison in the new offensive scheme. Don’t view Mattison as a pure hand-cuff. Mattison is capable of more if given the opportunity.
Joshua Palmer, WR Chargers (ADP 146.4)
Several Best Ball analysts have been hyping-up Joshua Palmer’s role in the Chargers offense as of late, sending his ADP upward. Recently, another report has surfaced suggesting that Jalen Guyton might be the third receiver to draft in this offense. I would expect a slide in Palmer’s ADP, which would allow him to be more affordable.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR Cardinals (ADP 75.4)
I wanted to discuss DeAndre Hopkins as one of the players who can tilt Best Ball leagues this year. Hopkins has received a six-game suspension causing his ADP to drop into the 7th round. I have seen drafts where Hopkins goes in the 80s. I understand the argument against it, but if you have a deep enough roster that can sustain the early-season hit, DeAndre Hopkins can be a difference-maker down the stretch.
Tyler Allgeier, RB Falcons (ADP 153.4)
Reports are beginning to surface regarding the Atlanta Falcons backfield situation, stating the Falcons won’t ride Cordarelle Patterson as a traditional running back. The team has spoken highly of Tyler Allgeier. I believe Allgeier is the type of player who plays more and more as the season continues.
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