Each week, GridIrion Heroics FCS writer Brian McLaughlin gives his FCS football postseason outlook heading into the next week’s action. BMac breaks down his projection on the seeding, who is just outside the seeding, who will get the at-large bids, and who will get an automatic bid after winning its conferences.
And last but not least? Which teams just missed the postseason outlook but could be in it soon?
By each Tuesday morning, this will publish, and it will be updated each week through FCS Selection Sunday on Nov. 20. The final FCS football postseason stab will come just after action wraps on Nov. 19 (late Saturday). The FCS playoffs and postseason will begin on Nov. 26.
The weekly FCS football postseason predictions will always be pinned at the top of my Twitter acct (@BrianMacWriter) by Tuesday mornings.
This week’s postseason explanation is below. Enjoy!
WEEK SEVEN FCS REACTION: How did this weekend affect the playoff picture?
FCS OVER FBS DATABASE: Looking back 20 years — How Often Does it Happen?
FCS PODCAST – BMAC AND THE NACH – ON APPLE PODCASTS
FCS FOOTBALL POSTSEASON EXPLANATION
At first glance, I can already hear people screaming: The Big Sky has five of the eight seeds. Well yes, as of this week. Now, does it really look like that’s the way the season will end up? Of course now, but as of the results we have today — the Big Sky is the best overall conference in the FCS nation and these five teams will figure prominently in the FCS playoff picture. While all five won’t make it into the seeding after cutting each up the next few weeks, I’d predict all five of these teams will get into the postseason.
The CAA is a true cluster, and trying to put them in order so far is impossible. It’s like a clear-cut top spot is a hot potato or something. The William & Mary, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Elon quartet should figure prominently in making the last month of play crazy. They’ve basically knocked each over — in one big circle.
They’re all pretty good, but W&M and Delaware’s FBS wins to give them the edge. And then there’s New Hampshire, a team that is actually leading the CAA at 4-0 (though none of the wins is over the above, and UNH’s 17-point home loss to North Carolina Central is not a good look).
The SoCon is also nutty. Chattanooga, Mercer, Samford, and even Furman figure into this picture. At least one if not two of these four teams will drop from the playoff picture in the next few weeks, but they are a combined 21-5 overall and 20-1 against the FCS. The SoCon needs a very strong leader and No. 2 team to emerge in this tough stretch ahead, and a nine-win SoCon team (and likely an 8-win team) are playoff locks.
But the circular-firing squad thing in the SoCon — which seems to happen just about every year — could doom the league to its automatic berth and maybe only one at-large team.
Questions? Debate ? Hit BMac up on Twitter (@BrianMacWriter) and let’s discuss.
REMEMBER: The FCS selection committee will ignore all FBS losses and all lower-division wins in its playoff consideration. So on the chart below, you’ll see the overall team record and the FCS record. Most of these teams have played FBS opponents this year — and seven have won against FBS teams (which is indicated). BEATING an FBS team is a big poker chip come playoff time, and could be the ultimate tiebreaker when it’s not obvious any other way.
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THE HBCU AND IVY LEAGUE PICTURES
MEAC CHAMPION: North Carolina Central
SWAC TITLE GAME (Dec. 3, site TBD): Jackson State (East) vs. Southern U. (West)
IVY LEAGUE CHAMPION: Princeton
CELEBRATION BOWL (Dec. 17, Atlanta): Jackson State (SWAC) vs. North Carolina Central (MEAC)
FCS FOOTBALL POSTSEASON PREDICTION – AFTER 7 WEEKS
THE VOTE: (note that FCS REC (record vs. FCS) is what the playoff committee will look at — unless the FCS school has an FBS win or a lower-division loss).
| SEED | AS OF OCT 18 | REC | FCS | STREAK | 2022 LOSSES |
| 1 | SDSU | 6-1 | 6-0 | W6 | P5 Iowa by 4 (AWAY) |
| 2 | Weber State | 6-0 | 4-0+ | W6 | NONE |
| 3 | Sac. State | 6-0 | 5-0+ | W6 | NONE |
| 4 | Montana State | 6-1 | 6-0 | W4 | P5 Oregon State by 40 |
| 5 | NDSU | 5-2 | 5-1 | L1 | P5 Arizona by 3, SDSU |
| 6 | Idaho | 4-2 | 4-0 | W4 | P5 Indiana by 13/P5 Wazzu by 8 |
| 7 | Montana | 5-1 | 5-1 | L1 | Idaho |
| 8 | Holy Cross | 6-0 | 5-0+ | W6 | NONE |
| NEAR SEED | ALMOST SEED | REC | FCS | STREAK | 2022 LOSSES |
| NEXT 3 | Incarnate Word | 6-1 | 5-1+ | W3 | SE Louisiana by 6 |
| NEXT 3 | SEMO | 5-1 | 5-0 | W5 | P5 Iowa St by 32 |
| NEXT 3 | Southern Illinois | 5-2 | 4-2& | W5 | UIW by 35 pts, SEMO by 3 |
| CONF | AUTOMATIC BID | REC | FCS | STREAK | 2022 LOSSES |
| ASUN-WAC | Austin Peay | 5-2 | 5-1 | W1 | FBS West. Ky by 11 |
| BIG SOUTH | Campbell | 4-2 | 4-1 | W3 | FBS East. Carolina, W&M |
| CAA | William & Mary | 5-1 | 4-1+ | W3 | Elon by 3 (home) |
| SOCON | Chattanooga | 5-1 | 5-0 | W2 | P5 Illinois by 31 |
| NEC | St. Francis (PA) | 4-2 | 4-1 | W4 | FBS Akron by 7, Richmond |
| PIONEER | Davidson | 5-2 | 3-2 | W1 | So. Utah by 31, St. Thomas |
| CATEGORY | TEAM | REC | FCS | STREAK | 2022 LOSSES |
| AT-LARGE | Delaware | 5-1 | 4-1+ | L1 | William & Mary by 6 (road) |
| AT-LARGE | Mercer | 6-1 | 6-0 | W5 | P5 Auburn by 31 |
| AT-LARGE | Samford | 5-1 | 5-0 | W4 | P5 Georgia by 33 |
| AT-LARGE | Rhode Island | 4-2 | 4-1 | W2 | P5 Pitt, Delaware |
| CATEGORY | LAST 3 IN | REC | FCS | STREAK | 2022 LOSSES |
| LAST 3 IN | Elon | 5-2 | 5-1 | L1 | P5 Vandy by 11, Rhody |
| LAST 3 IN | North Dakota | 4-2 | 4-1 | W2 | P5 Nebraska by 21, So. Illinois |
| LAST 3 IN | Furman | 5-2 | 4-1 | W2 | P5 Clemson by 23, Samford |
| CATEGORY | NEAR MISSES | REC | FCS | STREAK | 2022 LOSSES |
| JUST MISS 1 | New Hamp. | 5-2 | 5-1 | W2 | FBS West Mich, NC Central |
| JUST MISS 2 | Fordham | 6-1 | 6-0 | W3 | FBS Ohio U. by 7 |
| JUST MISS 3 | UT Martin | 4-2 | 4-1 | W3 | FBS Boise St., Mo. State by 5 |
| JUST MISS 4 | Monmouth | 5-2 | 5-2 | W5 | NewHamp, Fordham |
A (+) indicates the team has beaten a Group of Five Conference FBS team (EX: Weber State’s big win over Utah State), and a (&) indicates the team has beaten a Power Five Conference FBS team (EX: Southern Illinois’ win over the Big Ten’s Northwestern). FBS wins are key “poker chips” come postseason selection time.
Certain programs are ineligible for the FCS football postseason yet are playing in one of the playoff-bound conferences (EXAMPLES: Pioneer League and NEC leaders St. Thomas (MN) and Merrimack respectively, as well as FBS transitional teams like Sam Houston and Jacksonville State). Also, the ASUN-WAC combination will award one automatic bid on behalf of two conferences that are still in the forming stages.
NOTE: Brian McLaughlin has been a voter on the STATS/PERFORM FCS football poll since 2016, and has written FCS postseason predictions since the same year. He also votes on the FCS postseason awards — the Walter Payton Award (top offensive player), the Buck Buchanan Award (top defensive player), the Jerry Rice Award (the top freshman in FCS football), and the Eddie Robinson Award (top coach that year).
