In Part 1, I wrote about quarterbacks drafted between 2005 and 2015. In this article, I will focus on the years 2016 to 2018. As I said in the last article, drafting the right quarterback can turn your franchise into a contender for years. However, drafting the wrong quarterback will set your franchise back, and you still need one. General managers who draft the wrong QB don’t usually last long in their position.
SEC QB Falls in the draft
As expected, the 2016 draft saw Jared Goff (Rams) and Carson Wentz (Eagles) go first and second overall. After that, the next five quarterbacks taken were Paxton Lynch (Broncos), Christian Hackenburg (Jets), Jacoby Brissett (Patriots), Cody Kessler (Browns), and Connor Cook (Raiders). None of them worked out, and Brissett is the only one still in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys were on the clock at pick #135 and selected Dak Prescott from Mississippi St.
Many draft analysts had Prescott rated the fourth best QB and a likely top 50 pick. That is until March when Prescott was arrested for Driving Under the Influence. Prescott had never been in trouble before and was considered to have impeccable character. Prescott apologized, but he would fall all the way to the fourth round. It was an absolute draft steal by the Cowboys. Dak won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2016, and the Cowboys just made him the highest paid player in NFL history.
The Jets, Browns, and Raiders all passed on Prescott for players who were quickly out of football. All three of those teams are still looking for their franchise quarterback. Did the DUI scare these teams off? It’s impossible to know, but the lowest I saw Dak being selected in any mock draft was early in the third round. Dak has not been in trouble since, and the Cowboys found their franchise quarterback in the middle of the draft.
Bears Blunder
The Bears entered the 2017 draft with the third overall pick and, as usual, needed a quarterback. Jay Cutler had worn out his welcome, and it was time to move in a new direction. At the time, the Bears general manager was Ryan Pace. There were three quarterbacks expected to go in the first round. Pace decided the right move was to select Mitchell Trubisky from North Carolina. In fact, Pace even moved up to the second pick to ensure he landed his man.
Mitch Trubisky had athleticism and a big arm but had only started one season at UNC. Pace took a chance on him and completely whiffed on the selection. Trubisky put up decent numbers but struggled in the biggest games. It became clear that he wasn’t a franchise quarterback. After four seasons, the Bears moved on. Trubisky is the current backup in Buffalo.
You may wonder who the other two quarterbacks who went in the first round of the 2017 draft were. DeShaun Watson went 12th overall to Houston. After a terrific start, Watson had off-field issues. You can look it up if you don’t know the details. The Texans shipped Watson to the Cleveland Browns, and he has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL since. The other QB drafted was a player named Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs traded up to the 10th pick and selected one of the best players in the NFL. Mahomes and the Chiefs have won three Super Bowls since then and have been contenders every season since drafting him.
Strong QB Draft
The last draft I want to mention is the 2018 draft. Five quarterbacks were drafted in the first round that season. Let’s go over each one. Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield went first overall to the Cleveland Browns. The Browns haven’t had a franchise quarterback since Bernie Kosar in the 1980s. Mayfield had a strong third season in Cleveland. He looked like the answer at QB. But he struggled after that and bounced around the league before finding success last season for the Buccaneers.
The New York Jets (yes the Jets again) had the 3rd pick and took Sam Darnold from USC. The Jets moved up three spots and gave the Colts three second round picks to draft their guy. I remember watching Darnold at USC. He was terrific when he had a clean pocket. But when the play broke down, so did his accuracy. The Jets have struggled more than any team at finding their franchise QB. They had to nail this pick especially because they gave up so much to move up just three spots.
I like to call Sam Darnold Mr. September. He always seems to start the season well. But, as the weather changes he turns back into a pumpkin. He seems to struggle with accuracy and decision making as the season goes on. Darnold played for the Panthers and the 49ers after the Jets. The same issues occurred, but the Minnesota Vikings gave Darnold a fresh start. He is having his best season but, just like in previous seasons, Darnold has started to struggle as the year progresses.
Lucky #7
The Buffalo Bills needed to get this pick right. The last two quarterbacks they used a first round pick on were JP Losman in 2004 and EJ Manuel in 2013. Both were busts, and the Bills still needed a franchise QB. Bills fans can rejoice because the Bills drafted Josh Allen with the 7th overall pick. Allen likely fell to pick seven because he went to small school Wyoming and had some accuracy issues in college. Those issues are a thing of the past, and Allen is one of the best players in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals were also in desperate need of a quarterback. With the 10th pick, they drafted Josh Rosen from UCLA. This pick drew praise from many draft analysts. They could not have been more wrong. Rosen was the worst of these five quarterbacks by far. He played so poorly that the Cardinals picked first in the draft the next season. They were able to land their current franchise quarterback, Kyler Murray. Rosen played three seasons for three teams and is now out of football.
Ravens Trade Back Into the First Round
With the final selection in the first round of the 2018 draft, the Baltimore Ravens moved up to select 2016 Heisman Trophy Winner Lamar Jackson. Jackson had wide receiver athleticism and was dangerous as a scrambler. The question was could Jackson consistently make all the necessary throws in the NFL? The Ravens took a lot of heat for this pick, but they nailed the selection. Jackson is one of the best players in the NFL, has won two AP MVP awards, and may be the favorite again this year.
Final Thoughts
Drafting a franchise quarterback is not an exact science. The Bears, Raiders, Jets, and Browns have struggled for years to find their guy. All four teams currently have a losing record. They have seen general managers come and go because the quarterback did not pan out. When you draft the right quarterback, you instantly make your team a contender. The Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs drafted the right QB. It’s no coincidence that they are three of the best teams in the NFL.
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