The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were active this off-season, providing Tom Brady a few additional wide receiver options. With Julio Jones recently joining this already seemingly stacked receiving core, what does that mean for the fantasy outlook for the TB wide receivers moving forward?
Tampa Bay’s Wide Receiver Core
Well first, let’s count ’em up! The Bucs signed Russel Gage, Julio Jones, and tight end Kyle Rudolph this off-season. They lost Rob Gronkowski, ‘supposedly’ forever, so right there is an additional 50+ receptions up for grabs. We know Chris Godwin will come back at some point this season, but it’s unclear exactly when that will happen. So that’s another 20%+ target share that is possibly going to be available. At least for the first few games, we assume. In addition, we all know what happened to Antonio Brown. He accounted for between 42, and 45 receptions with the Bucs over the past two years, with 4 touchdowns each year.
Target Share for New Wide Receiver Core
So how does this look to play out for the newcomers?Rudolph had 39 catches for 257 yards, with only 1 TD for the New York Giants last year. It’s quite possible that with Tom Brady throwing him the rock that those stats increase, but we can likely safely assume that Rudolph will not be the same Red-Zone threat that Gronk was. However, averaging 2+ catches a game does give him some plug-and-play tight end value, especially in leagues where depth is key.
So that leaves us with Gage and Jones. Jones currently holds the record for highest average yards per game, but did not showcase that same talent in Tennessee last year. Granted, Ryan Tannehill is no Tom Brady. It’s worth noting though, that Julio Jones could simply not stay healthy last year. Jones is 33 years old, which is typically after the ‘decline’ point of most receivers. In this case, we can safely assume that Jones will be a ‘boom or bust’ option for most fantasy teams. It’s without a doubt that he has a high ceiling, but could easily goose you as well. As we’ve come to know, we can’t rely on Jones for touchdowns.
Here’s where it gets juicy. Russell Gage. Gage ranked 43rd in receptions last year with 66, and 47th in yards with 770. He was tied for 57th with 4 touchdowns. On top of that, if you didn’t know, Brady personally recruited him. Gage is 26 years old and was drafted in 2018 in the 6th round.
Gage is one of the top sleeper picks this year, and it’s likely his ADP will drop due to the Jones signing. Right now, according to FantasyPros, Gage is being drafted at the overall 115 position, which ranges from the 8th to 9th round. For that current ADP, that’s a steal, especially if it drops due to the recent trade. Accounting for the loss of targets between Gronk, Brown, and partially Godwin, it’s safe to assume those targets have to go somewhere. Mike Evans always scores 1,000+ yards and typically is good for around 10 TD’s per season, so we know he’s the clear #1 target. With Godwin’s injury it’s unclear when and how he will return, and if he’ll be right back to the same caliber. This puts Gage in the perfect position to take advantage of the abandoned target share and red-zone availability.
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