The Green Bay Packers play the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round at Levi’s Stadium on Saturday at 7:15 P.M. Central Time.
Which team is the favorite in the Divisional Round?
San Francisco is favored by 9.5, and the over/under is 50.5.
The Green Bay Packers exceeded expectations
Green Bay exceed expectations in Jordan Love’s first year as the starting quarterback. Their offense ranks 12th in points, 11th in yards, 12th in passing, and 15th in rushing.
Jordan Love completed 372 out of 579 pass attempts for 4,159 yards and threw 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Their top three receivers are Jayden Reed with 64 receptions for 793 yards (8 TDS), Romeo Doubs with 59 receptions for 674 yards (8 TDS), and Dontayvion Wicks with 39 receptions for 581 yards (4 TDS).
Despite missing six games, Aaron Jones was their leading rusher with 656 yards on 142 attempts (2 TDS).
Their defense has been hit-and-miss. The defense ranks 10th in points, 17th in yards, 24th in takeaways, 9th in passing, 28th in rushing, and 16th in sacks.
Their leading sacker is Rashan Gary, who has 44 tackles, seven for a loss, 22 quarterback hits, and nine sacks.
Their leading tackler is Quay Walker, who has 118 tackles (59 solo+59 assists), seven for a loss, and 2.5 sacks.
Their most reliable cornerback is Jaire Alexander. Jaire has missed ten games this season. He allowed 22 receptions on 33 targets for 282 yards, two touchdowns, five pass deflections, and a 113.4 passer rating in coverage.
Jaire re-injured his ankle against Dallas and is questionable.
The San Francisco 49ers have been dominant
San Francisco has one of the best rosters in football.
Their offense ranks 3rd in points, 2nd in yards, 4th in passing, and 3rd in rushing.
Brock Purdy completed 308 out of 444 pass attempts for 4,280 yards and threw 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Their top three receivers are Brandon Aiyuk with 75 receptions for 1,342 yards (7 TDS), George Kittle with 65 receptions for 1,020 yards (6 TDS), and Deebo Samuel with 60 receptions for 892 yards (7 TDS).
Christian McCaffrey has been phenomenal, with 1,459 yards on 272 attempts (14 TDS).
They have one of the best defenses in the league. They rank 3rd in points, 8th in yards, 6th in takeaways, 14th in passing, 3rd in rushing, and 9th in sacks.
Their leading sacker is Nick Bosa, who has 53 tackles, 16 for a loss, 35 quarterback hits, and 10.5 sacks.
Their leading tackler is Fred Warner, who has 132 tackles (82 solo+50 assists), six for a loss, and 2.5 sacks.
Their most reliable cornerback is Charvarius Ward. Ward allowed 59 completions out of 109 pass attempts for 714 yards, three touchdowns, five interceptions, 23 pass deflections, and a 64.5 passer rating allowed in coverage.
1 Offensive and 1 Defensive Key to Victory-Green Bay Packers
The first key to victory is Aaron Jones. Jones is the focal point of their offense, and they play much better when they feed him the ball. Green Bay needs Jones to have the best game of his career against the 3rd-best run defense.
The second key to victory is to force turnovers. San Francisco doesn’t turn the ball often and has the 11th-fewest turnovers in the league. In their five losses, they had at least one turnover. They turned the ball over once against Cleveland, three times against Minnesota, three times against Cincinnati, five times against Baltimore, and once against Los Angeles.
1 Offensive and 1 Defensive Key to Victory-San Francisco 49ers
The first key to victory is Christian McCaffrey. If the 5th-worst run defense in the league cannot stop the league’s best running back, San Francisco has a better chance of winning.
The second key to victory is to disrupt Jordan Love. If San Francisco’s pass rush can consistently pressure Love, it may affect his accuracy and cause him to rush his throws or throw interceptions.
PREDICTION
I predict that the San Francisco 49ers will win by 7 points against the Green Bay Packers, and I am taking the over.
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