Ownership Matters!
Hey all and welcome to my breakdown of the Week Three NFL Sunday DFS Slate. This is not going to be a typical breakdown of the players and what went right and what did not. The simple reason being I do not have the appropriate time to fully dissect why Marc Andrews was the best TE play on the slate or why Travis Kelce was the second best, sort of like I said he would. Today, we are focusing on ownership in GPP tournaments and why it matters. It’s THE most important thing in DFS GPP tournaments.
The Situation
This was a unique weekend for me in terms of my aspirations as a DFS analyst. It’s also one that I do not hope to repeat. I was doing a serious juggling act this weekend.
The three balls are:
- Following football news
- Participating in the family getaway
- Bracing for Hurricane Ian
Yep, that SOB is about to create some havoc.
Why Ownership Matters
Yesterday, David Montgomery’s ownership came into GPP tournaments anywhere from 31% to 45% depending on your tournament. I will fade ownership like this any time. Group think does not work. There are so many reasons why a play can fail. Injuries, coaching decisions, game plans, other team’s defensive schemes, and turnovers can make any player a miss. When someone comes in highly owned, and there are players around him who are similarly priced that have a path to success, then that is where I will move.
I pivoted to AJ Dillon, Jamaal Williams, or Chase Edmonds at David Montgomery’s price point to gain leverage on the field. The strategy was sound as Montgomery left the game early. I had an immediate 31% to 45% advantage on the field. Williams and Edmonds outscored him significantly. Dillon outscored him too but wasn’t great. There is no other quicker way to leverage the other DFS players.
For anyone who has ever bet on horse racing, the same idea applies. If 50% of the public is betting the favorite to win, just pick another horse. That’s why it pays better when the favorite fails to win.
All that being said, “Khalil Herbert stepping in to crush the slate with 30+ DK points after Montgomery went down” was not the square I had on my bingo card. It probably should have been as one possible reason for Monty to fail was an injury. Also, I wasn’t great about letting my readers know about Monty’s ownership. So…
We Need a Discord!
I don’t expect another weekend quite like this one, but despite those things, I was able to keep tabs on ownership and was able to make updates to my DFS GPP Week Three article in the comments section, but there is a better way. Because most people who play Daily Fantasy Sports do not actually put in lineups until the day in question, ownership numbers start becoming more apparent on the day of the sporting slate.
I have projections, trends, and data to make accurate guesses by the time I submit my article on Friday nights. However, much, much….much changes by Sunday morning. In order to be profitable in DFS GPP tournaments, I simply have to pay attention on Sunday mornings to news and things like ownership. I don’t mean to be insulting, but if you’re apple picking with the family, going to church, or recovering from a hangover on Sunday morning, you probably should stick to seasonal fantasy football.
To that end, I’ll be making a Discord chat soon. For those of you who plan on following my work and not just clicking my link on Twitter, Facebook, group chat or Instagram (BUT I VERY MUCH APPRECIATE THOSE OF YOU ARE), I’ll provide you with an avenue to get updates from me on Sunday morning. If you don’t currently have the Discord App on your phone, I encourage you to download it now in advance. Even if you are apple picking, you can wander off to another section of the orchard and hit our group up.
I hope to have more direction on this by next Sunday, but there is a real possibility I’ll be without power or WiFi for some time.
Monday Night Football
For the aforementioned reasons, I am not going to play the Monday Night Football DFS Showdown slate. I have not had ample time to properly dissect the game. For that reason I refuse to offer half-assed analysis for a game I haven’t properly looked at. I don’t want to do that disservice to my readers, but I also don’t want to be unreliable. In this unique circumstance, I hope you’ll forgive me.
I look forward to catching you all for the Thursday Night Slate between the Dolphins and Bengals!
For More Great Fantasy Content
You can follow me at @Borisnow00 and also visit our fantasy football page for more analysis.