The College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams this year, which means that for the first time ever, all 134 FBS schools have a shot at making the playoff. In the past, to make it, one of two things had to happen: either go undefeated and hope everyone else loses a ton of games (Cincinnati), or be a big enough brand and go undefeated or have one excusable loss.
For teams like Appalachian State, UNLV, Boise State, and, in last year’s case, Florida State, nothing could be done to guarantee a spot in the Playoff. Now, if a team goes undefeated and wins their conference championship, they are in. Even in the crazy case of two G5 undefeated champions, one would imagine that an undefeated champion would at least crack the Top 12 and get an at-large spot.
With that, the next question becomes which team in each conference has the best shot at making the playoff. Sure, it would be easy to look at the best team in every conference, but it goes deeper than that. In some conferences, the best team may have the toughest schedule, so perhaps the second or third-best team has the best shot at being undefeated at the end of the season.
In fact, in this three-part series, most of the teams that have the easiest path to the CFP aren’t the best teams, at least on paper. With conferences getting so large, the strength of schedule disparity between teams within a conference is so large that they barely even resemble playing in the same conference.
Part Three Breakdown
This breakdown of which teams are the most likely to make the Playoffs will be divided into three articles.
Pac-12 (2) – Washington State
Washington State and Oregon State are the only Pac-12 teams left. Neither of these teams can qualify as an automatic qualifier since they won’t have a conference championship game to play in. Both teams are also being treated as G5 Independents now, even though both teams play a schedule that is harder than anything a G5 team will face.
Neither team has a clear path to the CFP this year outside of going 11-1 or better, and Washington State gets the nod, mostly because they don’t have Oregon State’s schedule.
Oregon State has to face Oregon, which will likely go down as a loss. With that assumed loss, the Beavers will be out of sight and out of mind for the rest of the year unless they pull off an 11-0 record outside of that loss. Washington State faces Washington, which will be a much more manageable game, considering UW lost everyone from last year’s roster.
Mountain West – Wyoming
Wyoming isn’t the best team in the Mountain West, but they may have the best chance of making the CFP. With games early in the season against Arizona State and BYU, the Cowboys could find themselves 3-0 and ranked very early. There is a lot more name-brand than actual talent in those three opponents, and the Cowboys could capitalize on that.
After that, the schedule is very manageable. Their toughest conference opponents are Boise State, Colorado State, and Utah State. They avoid UNLV, Fresno State, and Air Force, which are projected to be 2-4 in the conference. Of the three toughest conference games, only Colorado State is on the road.
This could be a perfect example of the fourth or fifth most talented team finding themselves in the conference championship not because of talent but because of a very lucky schedule. Don’t believe me? Boise State, who is probably the most talented team, has to face Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State, and UNLV.
SEC – Georgia
This was a really tough one to decide. Ultimately, the decision came down to Georgia or Missouri. The Tigers have BY FAR the most manageable schedule in the SEC however the talent and amount of grace that the Bulldogs will get is too much to overcome.
There is the question of whether Georgia could compete in the NFL, and while that is a ridiculous scenario to believe, they could probably compete well against some NFL preseason teams.
Even with a very difficult schedule that will have the Bulldogs face off against Clemson, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Ole Miss, unless Georgia goes 2-3 in these games, they will have no issue getting into the Playoff. They could probably go 2-3 in those games and still be in.
In other words, Georgia is the one team in these season previews that doesn’t have to do much other than show up to make the Playoff.
Sun Belt – Texas State
The Sun Belt is the last conference in college football to have divisions still, and wow, does it favor Texas State. The Bobcats could realistically be the fourth or fifth-best team in the Sun Belt West, but because they play in the East, they are projected to win the division.
In addition, their non-conference P4 opponent is Arizona State at home. If there was ever a time to get a P4 win, it is this year.
Finally, they avoided playing the four teams in the conference that were probably better than them. The Bobcats play two cross-divisional games, and they somehow managed to get Old Dominion and Georgia State while avoiding App State, Coastal Carolina, James Madison, and Georgia Southern.
Only one out of 64 G5 teams gets to make the College Football Playoff every year, and the football gods are giving Texas State every opportunity in the world to do so.
