The College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams this year which means for the first time ever, all 134 FBS schools have a shot at making the playoff. In the past, to make it, one of two things had to happen; either go undefeated and hope everyone else loses a ton of games (Cincinnati), or be a big enough brand and go undefeated or have one excusable loss.
For teams like Appalachian State, UNLV, Memphis, and, in last year’s case, Florida State, nothing could be done to guarantee a spot in the Playoff. Now, if a team goes undefeated and wins their conference championship, they are in. Even in the crazy case of two G5 undefeated champions, one would imagine that an undefeated champion would at least crack the Top 12 and get an at-large spot.
The next question becomes which team in each conference has the best shot at making the playoff. Sure, it would be easy to look at the best team in every conference, but it goes deeper than that. In some conferences, the best team may have the toughest schedule, so perhaps the second or third-best team has the best shot at being undefeated at the end of the season.
In fact, in this three-part series, most of the teams that have the easiest path to the CFP aren’t the best teams, at least on paper. With conferences getting so large, the strength of schedule disparity between teams within a conference is so large that they barely even resemble playing in the same conference.
Part Three Breakdown
This breakdown of which teams are the most likely to make the Playoffs will be divided into three articles.
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- Part 1 will be the AAC, ACC, Big 12, CAN BE SEEN HERE
- Part 2 will cover Big 10, Conference USA, Independents, MAC
- Part 3 will conclude with the Pac-12, Mountain West, SEC, and Sun Belt
Big 10 – Ohio State
While other teams have much easier schedules than Ohio State, the Buckeyes should still have no issue making the College Football Playoff. Their non-conference consists of Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall, making Ohio State one of the only teams in the country not playing a P4 in the non-conference.
Additionally, the Buckeyes avoid traveling. Considering that the Big 10 is now coast to coast, it is impressive that OSU only travels to play Oregon, Michigan State, Penn State, and Northwestern is relatively nothing compared to other teams. The other eight games are at home, including hosting Michigan, Iowa, and Washington.
Aside from likely being the favorite in every game, perhaps in their game against Oregon, Ohio State could likely go 9-3 and still make the playoff. Given their schedule, it would be a shock if they failed to do that.
Conference USA – Liberty
CUSA is by far the weakest conference in college football. The only decent name-brand teams are Liberty and maybe Western Kentucky. Besides that, the conference is filled with new FBS schools that are new to the level and aren’t well known, including newcomer Kennessaw State.
It will take some luck for the CUSA to make the CFP. For them to be the highest-rated champion, it would likely take the other G5 conference champions to all be 10-2 or worse and the CUSA champion to be 12-0. I just don’t see an 11-1 Mountain West school being ranked lower than a 12-0 CUSA team.
With that, Liberty has the best chance at a CUSA team going 12-0. Not only were the Flames the best team last year, but they also have a schedule that is favorable to an undefeated season. They don’t play a single P4 program, and their schedule is very easy, to be completely honest.
Independents – Notre Dame
When you think of Notre Dame, it’s easy to assume they are playing Michigan, Alabama, and USC every other week, but their schedule is manageable. In reality, they actually have a schedule that matches up closer to a lower-tiered ACC or Big 12 team. Below is their schedule:
- at Texas A&M
- Northern Illinois
- at Purdue
- Miami (OH)
- Stanford
- Georgia Tech (Neutral)
- Navy
- Florida State
- Virginia
- Army
- at USC
That is three true road games, four G5 schools, and only three teams projected to be anywhere in the Top 25 this year (Texas A&M, Florida State, USC). Every other game feels like it should be over by halftime. Of course, odd and weird games are part of the game, but if Notre Dame goes even 1-2 in their tough games, that should be enough to get into the Playoff.
It also helps that the other Independent teams are UMass and UConn, and neither will get anywhere near the CFP.
MAC – Toledo
Like the CUSA, the MAC will need its Conference Champion to have a better record than any other G5 champion (outside of the CUSA). That means an 11-1 MAC Champion will miss the playoff unless the other conference champions are all 10-2 or worse.
The MAC has five teams that seem like they could potentially be in contention to win the conference this year: Toledo, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Ohio, and Northern Illinois. The problem is that every team outside of Toldeo on this list plays a top P4 team, such as Notre Dame or Ohio State. Toledo is the only team with a P4 game they could realistically win (Mississippi State).
Toledo also hosts Ohio, Bowling Green, and Miami (OH). The only tough road game they face in MAC play is Northern Illinois. Every other game feels manageable.
With the favorable home schedule and a P4 nonconference game they could potentially win, Toledo is the clear choice for the best shot at making the CFP.
