At the most recent media conference, director Bill Hancock made it very clear what the priorities for the College Football Playoff are this year. In a year that does not have any clear-cut favorite, picking from what many consider a potential eight-team race, establishing the four playoff participants will come down to much scrutiny. While conference championship games are yet to be played, an insight into what the committee is valuing at the moment is easy to determine at the moment.
College Football Playoff Criteria Discussion
The advent of the College Football Playoff system replaced the BCS championship selection. What was intended to be less controversial has been anything but short of controversy and discussion. Since the inception of this playoff system, the question of two potential teams vying for the final spot has always remained. Who deserves to get the nod, the team that is “most deserving” or the team that is “the best”?
Most deserving has tended to mean teams that not only showed their ability on the field but also had winning results to show. Typically, a conference champion of a Power Five conference goes through their season, either undefeated or with only one loss. The issue arose as schedule strengths left some teams that were perceived to be better on paper with more losses.
This led to some saying that the four best teams should be the ones to compete in the playoffs. This means that even if you lost a close game and were unable to compete in the conference championship team, a high-caliber one-loss non-champion would deserve to be in over an undefeated non-power five winner.
The current state of the College Football Playoff selection
This year, a different story is unfolding. Winners of their respective conference championship games will help to provide clarity on a highly debatable decision. If undefeated conference champions take care of business, it could potentially be one of the quickest meetings held in the post-covid Zoom era.
Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State are all undefeated. The consensus is that an undefeated champion from the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 (rest in peace) will easily be in. The issue of an otherwise shoo-in ACC champion arises with this year’s FSU team.
So for those — including College Football Playoff Executive Director Bill Hancock — who believe that the committee selects "best" over "most deserving," here is what both Top 10s look like:
BEST (using combination of FPI/SP+/KFordRatings)
Michigan
Ohio State
Oregon
Georgia…— CFB Focus 🏈 (@cffmwachsman) November 29, 2023
Favored to beat Louisville, the Seminoles may win out. Since losing star Quarterback Jordan Travis, many believe that the committee will use this to justify putting in someone else in their place for a more exciting television product.
This sentiment was exemplified at the press conference when asked a direct question about the most recent FSU win over Florida.
They’re a different team. It’s pretty obvious with Jordan Travis not playing and Tate Rodemaker playing, they’re a different team.
This quote is particularly telling seeing that most heads of leadership in this position give vague, indirect answers, avoiding any hint of favoritism or bias at all costs. To single the quarterback situation, and personnel difference of one specific school is very unusual in these types of circumstances.
When then asked directly if the decision would be about deserving or best four, Hancock made his answer very clear for all fans.
It is best. Most deserving is not anything in the committee’s lexicon.
He went on to say that the best team is in terms of the totality of the season, and that the job of the committee is to try to eliminate any recency bias as best as possible while also maintaining that they were waiting for the final results from the upcoming weekend conference championship games.
Some could argue that the lack of recency bias could favor FSU. Hancock made it clear however that unless FSU wins by a large margin and with so-called style points, their bowl invitation could likely come from a non playoff game.
College Football Playoff inconsistent messaging
The recent clarification of what the committee is looking for, and stance on wanting to have the best teams has opened the door for teams like Alabama and Ohio State to sneak back into the conversation. If winners this week are unimpressive, or even worse, additional key injuries happen, the most healthy, and complete teams throughout the year will definitely be favored to be selected.
While stating that the totality of the season is what is most taken into account, as a team is being criticized for how it looks after losing their starting quarterback, it seems to be a set up for the most marketable team to win any close decision for this College Football Playoff committee decision.
In the final year of a four team playoff, it’s unlikely any decision will be viewed favorably by a majority of people in the world watching the College Football Playoff selection. While a system that was meant to get rid of controversy and provide a clear indisputable winner of the sport, the committee is set to accomplish everything else except that.