Last night, the latest College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings were revealed. After Week 12, the most notable shift was the Washington Huskies moving ahead of the Florida State Seminoles. Now, there are just two weeks to go until we know who the four playoff teams will be.
However, this has been one of the most competitive years for the College Football Playoff in recent memory. The top eight teams have been the same since the first CFP rankings came out this year. Because of this, there is little room for error for the teams at the top of the list.
With each passing week, there is a greater chance of one particular “chaos scenario” for the College Football Playoff. What is that scenario? Let’s dive into it.
Top Eight College Football Playoff Teams
At this point, we have pretty much narrowed it down to the top eight schools as to who will end up in the College Football Playoff. While some of these schools have swapped spots, no other school has cracked the top eight these past four weeks. Here is the current list:
- Georgia Bulldogs (11-0)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
- Michigan Wolverines (11-0)
- Washington Huskies (11-0)
- Florida State Seminoles (11-0)
- Oregon Ducks (10-1)
- Texas Longhorns (10-1)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1)
Chaos Scenario
So, what chaos scenario can happen with these teams? Well, the first part of this can happen on Saturday. Due to their strength of schedule, the Michigan Wolverines pretty much have to win this upcoming game against the Ohio State Buckeyes. If Ohio State were to lose, there is a stronger argument for them to still make the College Football Playoff due to a big non-conference road win against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Florida State also has no room for error. They recently lost QB Jordan Travis for the season and are currently the lowest-ranked unbeaten team in a Power 5 conference. A loss against the Florida Gators or Louisville Cardinals almost certainly knocks them out of the College Football Playoff.
The same applies to Texas. They have no room for error due to their loss in the Red River Rivalry game against the Oklahoma Sooners. However, the best thing they have going for them is a statement road win early in the season against Alabama. If Texas wins out, they will have to be in the mix.
Then, we have Georgia and Washington. Right now, they are two undefeated teams in tough conferences. If they go undefeated, they are guaranteed to make the playoffs. However, if they both lose in their conference championships to Oregon and Alabama, it arguably opens up Pandora’s box.
The above scenario creates the biggest debate as to who makes the College Football Playoff. Michigan would arguably be the only lock here going undefeated. If Florida State ends up being one of the last unbeaten teams, they will be hard to ignore as well.
Does this mean the SEC Champion would miss out on the CFP entirely? Would Oregon’s strength of schedule hurt them? Would Ohio State miss out despite their only loss coming to the top-ranked team in the country? Or, would Texas still be left out of the CFP despite their notable road win over Alabama?
In this scenario, at least two of those things would come to fruition. Next year, the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams and if this happened in 2024, all eight of these teams would be virtual locks to get in. For now, they have created one of the most difficult debates since the inception of the CFP.
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