While there are still several weeks to go, the next key milestone in the 2024 Offseason for the Cincinnati Bengals is the NFL Draft. After the recent additions of offensive tackle Trent Brown and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, the roster doesn’t have any significant holes that require emergency service this April. That means that the jury is out on who this team will select as they will be in a completely reactionary position in the middle of the first round.
That means that since there is a suitable starter at every position, Cincinnati has the opportunity to look for any superstars that drop into the middle of the first round based on the requirements of other teams. After all, that is incredibly common: last season, defensive tackle Jalen Carter was widely considered the most talented player but fell all the way to the Philadelphia Eagles at ninth overall due to other positional needs. That should be the goal for the front office in the Queen City heading into the draft at least.
Who will the Cincinnati Bengals Select in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Quarterback: Not Likely
Our next step will be to rule out the positions that Cincinnati won’t select in the first round. The obvious reality is that with elite quarterback Joe Burrow, this team definitely won’t be selecting a quarterback except for maybe a potential backup on the third day of the draft. After that, the odds of this team selecting a pass rusher in the first round appear to be fairly slim given the crop of players available.
Defensive End: Not Likely
There are only two pass rushers ranked in the top 24 players by ESPN (Dallas Turner at 7th and Jared Verse at 11th) and neither of them exceeds 255 pounds. Both players translate positional to play as outside linebackers in a 3-4 defensive scheme where they could be on the field as pure pass rushers.
Defensive ends in a 4-3 scheme typically need to weigh more (Cincinnati’s current ends are arguably underweight at 265 and 270) since they are required to play on the line of scrimmage in a 3-point stance. Due to the lower weight, neither of these players fit into the defensive scheme and the next true defensive end available (Darius Robinson, ranked 25th) would be a slight reach for Cincinnati.
Defensive Back: Not Likely
It is also considered highly unlikely that the organization will select a defensive back in this draft. This offseason, the team brought in two starting caliber players in free agency (Geno Stone and Vonn Bell) on top of four starters in the secondary that were selected in the top three rounds over the past two offseasons. While it is possible if the team has a high opinion of a cornerback that early but the top of the defensive back class is fairly weak with only two players ranked in the top 20 players (Quinyon Mitchell at 12th and Terrion Arnold at 16th). It is unlikely the team would settle with those picks without a positional need.
Offensive Tackle: Best Bet on the Board
The best probability during the upcoming NFL Draft is that Cincinnati picks one of the seven offensive tackles ranked as first-round talents. Even after the bargain addition of Trent Brown last week, right tackle is arguably the greatest need still present on the team. Over the past few months, I have repeatedly boasted that this team should select JC Latham (ranked 17th overall) with the 18th overall pick due to his size but there is also a connection with Tyler Guyton (ranked 29th) overall and Cincinnati left tackle Orlando Brown Jr.
An argument can be made that Cincinnati should select any one of the seven offensive tackles projected to be selected in the first round. Regardless of which one you like, this is a position that Cincinnati really couldn’t go wrong with at the 18th overall pick.
Tight End: Rumors Overexaggerate the Probability
Throughout the offseason, there has been a rumor that Cincinnati would be selecting Georgia tight end Brock Bowers (ranked 10th) with the 18th overall pick. While Bowers is a talented player, there is a level of skepticism with tight ends selected in the first round as they have an even lower success rate than most other positions. On top of that, Cincinnati clearly doesn’t value the position much after signing three consecutive role-player tight ends (most recently Mike Gesicki) on extremely team-friendly deals.
There is a chance that Bowers is seen as one of the more talented offensive players available and if he is selected, he could fill the role that potentially departing wide receiver Tee Higgins fills on this team. That being said, it seems like a long shot for a team that clearly doesn’t put much significance on the tight end position to select one with a first-round pick.
Defensive Tackle: Possible but Unlikely
After the hole is addressed at the right tackle position, it is pretty apparent that the next biggest hole on this roster is at the defensive tackle position. Now you might be wondering how this team that is paying two defensive tackles north of $10 million apiece per season could possibly have a gap at that position but the reality is that even though there are two tackles available, there is a dichotomy present at defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense.
Both Sheldon Rankins and incumbent starter B.J. Hill fit the prototypical mold of the 3-technique defensive tackle at 305 and 311 pounds respectively. That means that this team is missing the 1-technique defensive tackle or what is more commonly called the nose tackle. D.J. Reader was an excellent nose tackle but left this offseason for the Detroit Lions. That means that while the team (notably finishing last season close to the bottom defensively against the run) has two starting quality defensive tackles, they don’t have a big-bodied player who can stuff the inside run.
Even though this is arguably the biggest positional need left on the roster, the dichotomy of 1-technique to 3-technique tackles puts a serious limit on availability. There are two defensive tackles projected as late first-round selections (Jer’Zhan Newton at 23rd and Byron Murphy at 24th) and they weigh in at 304 and 297 pounds respectively. That means neither of these players would actually fill the need for Cincinnati and are unlikely to be drafted.
Frankly, the only nose tackle that should even be selected in the first two days of the entire draft would be Texas Longhorn T’Vondre Sweat who weighs in at 366 pounds. Sweat is a monster of a man and is ranked by ESPN at 42nd overall. That means that while Cincinnati will likely be keying in on bringing Sweat in to solve the positional hole on the defense, it is far more likely that the team will trade up ten spots in the second round to land the tackle.
Wide Receiver: If, Maybe and But…
The real wild card of this set is going to be the wide receiver position. If Cincinnati does end up trading Higgins before the NFL Draft (which they have repeatedly said they aren’t going to do), the 18th overall pick would be an excellent place to draft his replacement. Three players have a realistic chance of being drafted at the 18th pick by Cincinnati: Rome Odunze (ranked 9th), Adonai Mitchell (ranked 20th) and Brian Thomas Jr. (ranked 21st).
The odds of Odunze making it through the first seventeen picks without getting selected aren’t high but if he falls to Cincinnati, he would be the perfect replacement. Mitchell and Thomas would be suitable options as well but both players are unlikely to be major upgrades over potential free agents still available at the position. Wide receiver is certainly in play but it requires Higgins to be traded before it gets legitimate viability.
Conclusion
While having a complete roster will allow Cincinnati to open up their draft to a wide range of possibilities, the odds are still far greater that the team will select either an offensive or defensive lineman in the first round of the NFL Draft.
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1 Comment
Great article — well written and informative!