I hope you all enjoyed your NFL Week Two DFS slate. Some things I hit on, and some things I missed. Below is my review of Sunday afternoon’s action.
The Good
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is a star in this league. His $6500 price tag might not be something we see again for some time.
- Saquon Barkley was indeed massive chalk in the NFL Week Two DFS slate. He was over 40% owned in GPP contests. If I had known that, he would have been a full fade for me. I ended up being around 15%, which did not sink me….other things did that.
- The Bengals defense was massively owned as well, 40% to be exact. The Bengals reminded me to simply fully fade chalk in GPPs.
- My recommending players like Cooper Kupp (not that hard), and Drake London (more bold) worked out.
- After being deemed Questionable to return, Tyreek Hill came out of nowhere to become the highest scoring WR on the slate. This Dolphin group looks legit, and I can’t wait to see how they match up vs the Bills in Week Three.
- Christian Kirk is very much entrenched at WR1 for the Jaguars. I doubt he can be relied on for over 100 yards and/or two TDs every week, but they Jaguars are putting their money where their mouth is with Mr. Kirk.
- Marc Andrews and Darren Waller were TEs one and two on the day. To be honest, that call was not quite hard either.
- If you had to go dumpster diving for TE, Danny Carpenter made a great call with Ty Conklin who yielded double digit fantasy points. While he was not GPP winning, he didn’t sink you either.
The Neutral
- The Raider and Cardinals environment served us well in certain areas for the NFL Week Two DFS slate, but ultimately the output here was not enough for a GPP win.
- I recommended fading Jahan Dotson and Greg Dortch. While they were not terrible, neither was in the GPP opitmal lineup.
- Devin Duvernay kicked the day off with a kickoff return TD. He also was nowhere near the optimal lineup, despite his team’s offense going off.
- At .14% ownership, Mack Hollins had five catches for 66 yards in the first half, but ignored during the second half. The opportunity was there, but ultimately it didn’t work out.
- DJ Moore got in the endzone, but because of the high output of other WRs in his price range, it didn’t matter much.
- I was full fade on Carson Wentz. He was the third highest scoring QB of the week. The second highest owned QB was Wentz. He was not in the opitmal lineup. Game theory is real.
- I had like one lineup with Jonathan Taylor in it. A near 10K price tag is going to be tough to pay off, and even if it does, how much are we handicapping the rest of our lineups?
The Bad
Unfortunately, there is just a little too much here for it to have been a truly profitable day.
- Last week Lamar displayed a desire to be a pocket passing QB, but this week he came through with three passing TDs and one rushing score. He hit the bonus for over 300 passing yards and the bonus for over 100 rushing yards. Thanks for being one week late Lamar. He was the highest scoring QB of the week.
- If you won any sort of significant dollars during the NFL Week Two DFS Slate, it is because you invested in the Miami v Baltimore game. I had parts of it, but not a minimum of four parts of it, which the optimal lineup had, including the second highest scoring QB of the week, Tua Tagovailoa.
- Nick Chubb was nowhere on my radar because the Browns organization has given me no reason to trust them. That being said, I’m not shocked that one of the best offensive lines helped their RB score three TDs.
- I was heavy on James Conner, but injuries are tough to predict. I didn’t have Conner getting injured for a few more weeks.
- DeVante Adams. The highest owned WR on the NFL Week Two DFS slate was DeVante. Too bad I did not listen to myself about fading chalk.
- Brandin Cooks was ultimately not good enough considering others priced in his range.
- Trey Lance looks done for the season. While injuries are tough to predict, it was clear the 49ers were keeping Jimmy G around for a reason. Now they have a legit NFL QB to turn to and not Brock Purdy. Yeah, that’s right, you’ve never heard the name Brock Purdy before.
Final Thought
I am becoming obsessed with ownership projections, and more specifically getting them right. It is not an exact science, but they matter for NFL DFS. One of my immediate goals is to get better at them.
I’ll catch you for the NFL DFS Monday Night slate. We got two games!
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