Predicting Each AFC South Team’s Most Likely Cap Casualty

Welcome to the third installment of the cap casualty series. This series will review each division’s most likely cap casualties. We will review the AFC South.

Note: All the information I used regarding contracts and cap savings was derived from Spotrac and Over The Cap.

Houston Texans cap casualty: WR Robert Woods

• Contract: 2-$15,250,000 (2025 Free Agent)
• Cap Number: $9,750,000
• Cap Savings: $5,000,000
• Why?:

First, Woods hasn’t been as productive since the ACL tear in 2021. Woods recorded 53 receptions for 527 yards and one touchdown with Tennessee in 2022 and recorded 40 receptions for 426 yards and one touchdown with Houston in 2023.

Second, Houston has a talented group of young receivers. They include Nico Collins, Tank Dell, John Metchie III, and Xavier Hutchinson.

Indianapolis Colts cap casualty: TE Mo Alie-Cox

• Contract: 3-$17,550,000 (2025 Free Agent)
• Cap Number: $5,920,000
• Cap Savings: $5,920,000
• Why?:

First, Alie-Cox isn’t productive in the passing game and is known for being a run-blocking tight end. He recorded 13 receptions for 161 yards and three touchdowns in 2023 and has 102 receptions for 1,286 yards and 14 touchdowns in his six-year NFL career.

Second, Indianapolis has a talented group of young tight ends. They include Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, and Will Mallory.

Jacksonville Jaguars cap casualty: WR Zay Jones

• Contract: 3-$24,000,000 (2025 Free Agent)
• Cap Number: $10,752,628
• Cap Savings (Pre June 1st): $4,183,294
• Cap Savings (Post June 1st): $7,735,294
• Why?:

First, Jones wasn’t as productive as he was in his first season. He recorded 82 receptions for 823 yards and five touchdowns in 2022 and recorded 34 receptions for 321 yards and two touchdowns in 2023. He missed eight games because of a nagging PCL injury and cartilage damage to his right femur.

Second, Jacksonville needs to clear up cap space for Calvin Ridley. Ridley is an unrestricted free agent, and Jacksonville is interested in re-signing him.

Third, $10 million is a lot of money for a number-three receiver.

Tennessee Titans cap casualty: LT Andre Dillard

• Contract: 3-$29,000,000 (2026 Free Agent)
• Cap Number: $10,678,000
• Cap Savings (Pre June 1st): $2,886,000
• Cap Savings (Post June 1st): $6,480,000
• Why?:

First, Dillard did not play well in his first season with Tennessee. Tennessee benched him in Week 6. He filled in for Hubbard when he suffered a concussion in Week 8 and started in Weeks 9 and 10. He suffered a concussion in Week 10 and missed Week 11. He did not play in Weeks 12-15. He filled in for Duncan when he got benched in Week 16 and started the last two games. Dillard finished the season with five penalties, 12 sacks allowed, and a 51 PFF Grade.

Second, they will likely find their left tackle of the future in the 2024 NFL Draft.

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