The Kansas City Chiefs play the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, January 28, at 2:00 P.M. Central Time.
Which team is the favorite in the AFC Championship game?
Baltimore is favored by 4, and the over/under is 44.5.
How has the playoffs treated Kansas City?
Kansas City defeated Miami 26-7 in the Wild Card. Mahomes completed 23 out of 41 pass attempts for 262 yards and threw one touchdown, Pacheco had 89 yards on 24 attempts and one touchdown, and Rice had eight receptions for 130 yards and one touchdown.
Kansas City’s defense held Miami’s offense to 264 yards. Note: Miami lead the league in yards per game during the regular season.
Kansas City defeated Buffalo 27-24 in the Divisional Round. Mahomes completed 17 out of 23 pass attempts for 215 yards and threw two touchdowns, Pacheco had 97 yards on 15 carries and one touchdown, and Kelce had five receptions for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Pacheco’s 4-yard rushing touchdown with 14:20 left to go in the game allowed them to take the lead.
Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard field goal with 1:47 left. Kansas City needed one first down to ice the game, and they did just that.
How has the playoffs treated Baltimore?
Baltimore defeated Houston 34-10 in the Divisional Round. The game was tied 10-10 at halftime, but Baltimore outscored Houston 24-0 in the second half. Jackson completed 16 out of 22 pass attempts for 152 yards and threw two touchdowns. He also had 100 yards on 11 carries and two touchdowns. Flowers had four receptions for 41 yards.
Baltimore’s elite defense held Houston’s up-and-coming offense to 213 yards of total offense.
Kansas City’s offense and defensive rankings during the regular season
Their offense underperformed. They ranked 15th in points, 9th in total yards, 10th in turnovers, 6th in passing, 19th in rushing, and allow the 2nd-least sacks.
Their defense carried the team. They ranked 2nd in points, 2nd in total yards, 27th in takeaways, 4th in passing, 18th in rushing, and 2nd in sacks.
Baltimore’s offense and defensive rankings during the regular season
They had one of the best offenses. They ranked 4th in points, 6th in total yards, 20th in turnovers, 21st in passing, 1st in rushing, and 16th in sacks.
They had the best defense. They ranked 1st in points, 6th in total yards, 1st in takeaways, 6th in passing, 14th in rushing, and 1st in sacks.
1 Offensive and 1 Defensive Key to Victory-Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City’s biggest offensive key to victory is throwing the football. Their receiving corps cannot afford to make the mistake of dropping passes. Rice, MVS, Kelce, and Watson need to be on their A game.
Kansas City’s biggest defensive key to victory is stopping the run. Stopping the run is their biggest weakness, as they are ranked 18th in run defense. They will be tested against the number-one rushing offense. They have a better chance of winning if they can stop the run, forcing Jackson to throw because Kansas City is ranked 4th in pass defense, and Baltimore is ranked 21st in pass offense.
1 Offensive and 1 Defensive Key to Victory-Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s biggest offensive key to victory is running the ball effectively. As mentioned, Baltimore has the best-rushing offense in the league, and Kansas City’s defense is 18th against the run. They need a big game from either Jackson, Edwards, Hill, or Cook.
Baltimore’s biggest defensive key to victory is forcing turnovers. Baltimore has the most takeaways, and Kansas City has the 10th-most takeaways. Baltimore needs to rattle Mahomes, forcing him to throw errant passes that could result in interceptions.
AFC Championship prediction
I predict a Kansas City Chiefs victory by three points over the Baltimore Ravens because Kansas City is built for the playoffs. Many people wrote Kansas City off when they had their regular-season struggles. They exceeded expectations by shutting down Miami and defeating red-hot Buffalo. They could upset Baltimore as well.
Another reason why I predict a Kansas City victory is because Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and is one of the most clutch players in the NFL.
Steve Spagnuolo is one of the better defensive coordinators in the league and will have a better game plan for stopping the run than other coordinators.
Lamar Jackson is a very talented quarterback, but relies on running the ball. He is a good thrower of the football, but Kansas City has one of the best pass defenses in the league.
Finally, I am taking the over. It will (likely) be a close game, but not a shootout.
