Every year, college football seems to have the same cast of great teams of teams on the top. Everyone knows that Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and others will be at the top of the rankings all year. For those teams, playing the games is less about the joy of winning and more about the relief of not losing.
But what about the surprise teams?
Every year, it feels like a team or two comes out of nowhere and surprises the nation. Last year, Missouri rose from unranked in the preseason ranking to 8th to finish the year. The year before that, TCU went from unranked to the National Championship.
These teams are what make college football fun, but they are tough to predict, at least to the naked eye. But when looking at the schedules and determining which teams have carry-over momentum from last year, a few candidates stick out.
1. Wisconsin (Unranked)
Wisconsin is normally one of the teams ranked in the preseason for its name-brand. However, after a less-than-stellar season last year, the Badgers enter the season in the ‘receiving votes’ category.
The Badgers are the kind of team that, if they find a star running back, could be tough to stop. When you think of smash-mouth football, Wisconsin is often the first team that comes to mind. But what could help them is their schedule.
Different styles of football are traditionally played in different parts of the country. The West tends to play a more loose-and-score offense where the ball is thrown a lot. The South relies heavily on audibles and balance, while the Northeast/Midwest relies heavily on the run game and stellar defense.
Wisconsin plays four tough games in 2024: Alabama, USC, Oregon, and Penn State. They avoid Washington, Michigan, and Ohio State. The nice thing about the four tough games is that none of those teams play the same style of football that the traditional Big 10 plays aside from Penn State. This could be a good or bad thing for Wisconsin, but if it works out in their favor, it is very possible for the Badgers to go 2-2 or even 3-1 in these games and finish the season ranked in the Top 10 as long as they don’t drop any games against lesser competition in Big 10 play.
2 – Boise State (Unranked)
Boise State very quietly had a really good finish to their season in 2023. After a 3-4 start, the Broncos won five of their final six regular-season games, winning all but one by double digits.
The season actually sets up really nicely for Boise State, with enough tough games that they could potentially be an 11-2 MWC champ and have a higher ranking than an undefeated MAC or CUSA team or a one loss Sun Belt or AAC Champion. With games against Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington State, as well as tough tests against San Jose State and UNLV, the Broncos could build a strong resume to be ranked high at the end of the year.
It should also be mentioned that the Oregon game could be sneaky. Oregon clearly is the better team and should win, but with the Ducks playing rival Oregon State the following week and being the first year in the Big 10, the Ducks could get caught looking ahead. This feels like the recipe to be a trap game.
If the Broncos pull off the upset, watch out!
3 – Kansas (Ranked 24th Coaches)
Kansas is the lone-ranked team on this list. While people tend to think of a surprise team as one coming from outside the Top 25, Kansas is an exception. We are only a few seasons removed from the Jayhawks, who were the laughingstock of college football. However, after a few good seasons, they gained the respect of being ranked. However, they are still the 5th-ranked Big 12 team in the Coaches Poll.
So why are they on this list? They have a chance to be ranked in the Top 5.
Yes, being ranked in the Top 5 is a bold statement, but their schedule supports it, and I mean REALLY supports it.
Utah, Kansas State, Arizona, and Oklahoma State are expected to be the four best teams in the conference. Kansas only plays Kansas State out of those four. The bottom five teams are Baylor, Colorado, BYU, Houston, Arizona State, and Cincinnati. Kansas plays every single one of those teams except Cincinnati.
Throw that in with a nonconference that includes Lindenwood, Illinois, and UNLV, and you’re looking at a team that may be the 24th-best team in the country with an 11-1 record. Heck, they may go 12-0 and be ranked in the Top 3 by the end of the season despite not really facing any true competition besides Kansas State.
