With NFL Week 6 nearly in the books, we are learning more and more about every team in the NFL. As a bettor, you likely want to stay ahead of the curve and take advantage of this.
However, it is also important not to overreact to the latest results. What are some potential traps here? These are four potential overreactions from NFL Week 6 games.
1. Zach Wilson Has Life Left After NFL Week 6
In arguably the most stunning upset of the week, Zach Wilson and the New York Jets defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 20-14. This gave the Eagles their first loss of the season.
The Jets are hot lately, having won their last two games. Wilson has contributed to this, averaging 210 passing yards in each of his last three games. The Jets have also scored 20+ points in their last three games after scoring just 10 points in their prior two games.
However, Wilson still has issues with turnovers. He has an interception and three fumbles in his last three games.
While the Jets are surprisingly .500 right now with Zach Wilson and have about +400 odds to make the playoffs, you may want to think twice about making that bet.
2. Detroit Lions Are the Best NFC Team
One of the biggest winners of NFL Week 6 had to be the Detroit Lions. Not only did they take care of business in their 20-6 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they are also now tied for the NFC’s top seed. That is because the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers each suffered their first loss.
One of the most positive signs for the Lions is that they are a Top 10 team in points per game (28) and points allowed per game (18.8).
However, the NFC title odds still do not favor them. Right now, they still have about +600 odds to win the NFC Championship. This is fourth behind the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys.
While it may be tempting to jump on those odds, some bettors may overreact to losses by the Eagles and 49ers in the same week.
3. Cincinnati Bengals Will Win the AFC North
Having won the AFC North the last two seasons, the Cincinnati Bengals opened the 2023 NFL season as favorites to win the division once more. However, things deteriorated quickly when the Bengals got off to a 0-2 start.
It did not help that quarterback Joe Burrow had lingering health issues going into the season. He suffered a calf injury during training camp and even aggravated that calf against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2.
Despite this, the Bengals have gotten back on track, winning three of their last four games. Some bettors may believe their problems are over and they will go on to win the division.
However, they still have lower odds to win the AFC North than the Ravens or the Cleveland Browns.
A big reason for this is that they already have a disadvantage with tiebreakers. The Bengals are 0-2 against their division and 0-3 against AFC opponents this season. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 2-1 against divisional opponents. Even worse, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-0 against those opponents.
In other words, it is going to be an uphill battle for the Bengals to get back on top of this competitive division.
4. New England Patriots Are the Worst Team in the NFL
On the other end of the spectrum, there is already a competitive race for the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The New England Patriots are one of six teams in this mix with just a 1-5 record through six games.
Their performance during the last three weeks has not helped. They are 0-3 in this stretch and they have scored just 20 points combined in those three games. The Patriots now have the lowest-scoring offense in the AFC.
Quarterback Mac Jones has regressed during this losing streak. He has seven turnovers and zero touchdown passes. Plus, he has not thrown over 200 passing yards in any of these three games.
Right now, the Patriots’ over/under win total sits at around 4.5. Only the Carolina Panthers have a lower win total.
While this may be tempting, keep in mind that they still have games left against the New York Giants and Denver Broncos, plus a rematch vs. the Jets.
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