Not every schedule is created the same, yet that isn’t something discussed very often early in the season. Typically, teams believe that they have to go either 11-1 or 12-0 to be considered for the College Football Playoff, but all that will change in 2024.
Starting in 2024, the 12-team playoff will allow teams who go 10-2, 9-3, or even maybe 8-4 and find themeselves in the conversation to get an at-large playoff position. Bu tnot every team is equal. It’s much harder for a G5 team to get an at-large spot than an SEC team. It’s even tougher for an ACC or Big 12 team to get a spot over a Big 10 team. Why? There could be a few reasons why, but the main one is strength of schedule.
Kelley Ford, who is a well respected college sports projector has released his tiers of which teams need to win so many games to make the playoff (see tweet below). While most of it seems absoltuely correct, there are a few surprises that need to be addressed.
College Football Expanded Playoff Will Favor SEC/Big 10
![REACTION: How Many Wins Each College Football Team Needs to Be Considered for 2024 Playoff 1 Charlie Baker is president of NCAA including college football.](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/USATSI_21489039_168400517_lowres-1024x631.webp)
Before diving into the numbers, it is important to note that the SEC and Big 10 will have the most grace regarding wins and losses. For example, in the tiers, most SEC teams fall in the nine to ten-win category to be considered because of how many great teams they face.
Other teams may need to get 11 or 12 wins to be considered for an at-large spot. This is not taking into account conference championship games. The assumption is that none of these teams would go on to win their conference.
What Kelley Ford Got Right
![REACTION: How Many Wins Each College Football Team Needs to Be Considered for 2024 Playoff 2 notre dame jayden harrison](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/USATSI_22877397_168400545_lowres-1024x926.webp)
- Florida may be considered for an at-large spot if they go 8-4. Looking at their schedule, they face Miami, Texas A&M, UCF, Tennesse, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State for ten of their 12 games. If Florida somehow pulls off a 6-4 record against these opponents and wins their other two games, Florida should be considered for a spot, especially if multiple 9-3 teams are being considered.
- Only the SEC and Big 10 teams can be considered to have a 9-3 record. The interesting part about being 9-3 is that with this record, an SEC or BIG 10 team is unlikely to be in their conference championship. The same isn’t necessarily true about a Big 12 or ACC team. If a 9-3 Big 12/ACC team makes it to the conference championship game and loses, 9-4 won’t get them in.
- Notre Dame will need 11 wins to get playoff consideration. When you think of big brands in college football, Notre Dame is toward the top. However, the Irish depend on at-large births without a conference championship game. Also, their schedule is weak, as they are playing NIU, Purdue, Miami (OH), Navy, Virginia, and Army. They only have three big games all year, and going 1-2 in those games wouldn’t cut it. The exception would be if Notre Dame goes 2-1 in those games and drops an early season game to Purdue or Louisville.
How many regular season wins does your team need to be in conversation for a CFP at-large bid?
*Order within the tier matters. Georgia’s 9 wins would be more impressive than Vanderbilt’s, which would be more impressive than Arkansas’, etc. pic.twitter.com/wuXepya3oG
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) July 3, 2024
What Kelley Ford Got Wrong
![REACTION: How Many Wins Each College Football Team Needs to Be Considered for 2024 Playoff 3 espn fpi](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/USATSI_22206194_168400545_lowres-1024x683.webp)
- Few G5 schools would be in contention for an at-large spot, even with a 12-0 season. Again, these are at-large spots, meaning that they are not conference champions. Of course, the one exception would be that there are multiple 12-0 conference champions, so one would have to be an at-large, but those odds are very low. The only teams I believe that could make it as an at-large team include the following:
-
- UMass – Plays Missouri, Liberty, Toldeo, and Georgia, all teams that won 10+ games last year. If UMass made it even 11-1, they should be considered.
- Bowling Green – Plays Penn State and Texas A&M. The rest of the conference is nothing special, but a 2-0 stretch against these teams should be considered, even if losing the MAC Championship….maybe.
- Colorado State – The Mountain West is a good conference, and a 12-0 regular season should be enough to get in regardless of what happens. This is especially true with games against Texas and Colorado to start the season.
- South Florida—Like CSU, the Bulls face two great nonconference games against Alabama and Miami. Wins against them, plus an undefeated AAC slate, should be enough to get in.
-
- Utah doesn’t need 11 wins. Although their schedule isn’t great with a 10th Big 12 opponent (Baylor) and other games against SUU and Utah State in the non-conference, the Utes are coming in ranked high enough and regarded well enough to where the committee is unlikely to drop them out of the Top 12 if they go 10-2. With games against OK State, Arizona, Iowa State, and UCF, a 2-2 record, plus an 8-0 record elsewhere should be enough.
- Alabama WILL NOT make the Playoff with nine wins. Sure, Alabama has some big games, but they also have a lot of cupcakes, including Western Kentucky, South Florida, Vanderbilt, and Mercer. Those are four games already. Outside those games, they should take care of South Carolina and Auburn easily. That already puts them at six wins. They need to do better than 3-3 against Wisconsin, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, and Oklahoma to be considered.
– – – – – – – – – – –
What do you think? What did Kelley Ford get right, and what did he get wrong? Let us know in the comments!