Make no mistake about it, Tom Brady is the GOAT, the greatest quarterback of all time. Winning 7 super bowl rings, more than any franchise, and playing a remarkable 22 seasons, winning 3 MVPs, and going to 15 pro bowls. Although many rightly recognize Brady as the best quarterback to ever play the game, luck is a factor in both the highlights and lowlights of his career.
Much of the argument for Brady being the GOAT comes from his 7 super bowl rings and all time wins. While he deserves credit for those wins, it is somewhat questionable if wins should really count as a QB stat. There are 22 guys starting on a football team, and 11 of those are on defense. Brady has never played defense in his career, as well as never having blocked or lined up in the backfield.
Brady’s Early Legacy
Almost every super bowl game Tom Brady has participated in has been a nail biter. Nine of his 10 super bowl appearances were decided by 10 points or less. In his first ever super bowl and playoff run, Brady dropped back to pass against the Oakland Raiders down 13-10 late in the fourth quarter and appeared to have fumbled the ball. Instead the officials made a ruling that Brady tucked the ball into his arm which therefore meant it was not a fumble, allowing the Pats to keep the ball.
At the time, the rule had barely ever been used and most fans were unaware of the rule, raising great suspicion among Raiders fans and most NFL fans. In fact, Brady himself isn’t quite sure it wasn’t a fumble. Brady and the Patriots then upset the greatest show on turf Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI behind a strong defensive performance and a clutch drive by Brady to set up the game winning field goal.
Bad Luck Brady
The Patriots won two more super bowls in the next two years by three points each with Brady at the helm. After suffering the first postseason loss of his career in 2006 and blowing a lead to the Colts in the AFC Championship in 2007, the Patriots came into 2007 with a formidable roster. Fueled by the acquisition of Randy Moss, the Pats completed a perfect 16-0 regular season. Brady threw 50 touchdowns, a then NFL record, and won MVP. After two home playoff wins to reach the super bowl, Brady found himself one win against the 10-6 Giants away from immortality.
Super Bowl XLII ended up being a much more defensive game than many anticipated with the Patriots holding a slim 7-3 advantage at the half. After falling behind 10-7, Brady would deliver a clutch td pass to Randy Moss to give the Pats a 14-10 lead with just over two minutes to go. On third and five, Giants QB Eli Manning somehow scrambled away from three Patriots defenders and launched a throw downfield to David Tyree, who caught the ball on his helmet for a huge first down.
A few plays later Manning found Plaxico Burress alone in the endzone for a 17-14 lead. Brady failed to answer in the last 40 seconds, and the Giants pulled off one of the biggest upsets in super bowl history to deny the Patriots undefeated dream. This is where the bad luck part of Brady’s career comes in. Not only should the Patriots defense been able to sack Manning or force an incompletion, but Asante Samuel should have intercepted the pass before that play even happened.
Super Bowl Upset Hangover
Brady’s poor luck would continue, with him tearing his ACL in the first game of next season. The Patriots would miss the playoffs without Brady at QB. The next two seasons the Patriots would lose the first two playoff games at home despite impressive regular seasons. After finally making it back to the Super Bowl behind stellar offensive play from Brady and Rob Gronkowski, Brady’s bad luck would strike again. With the Patriots Leading 17-15 with just over two minutes left, all that was between Brady and his fourth super bowl ring was a defensive stop.
The Giants needed to go nearly the whole field to put up some points and do so in a hurry. Eli Manning found Mario Manningham in one of the greatest combinations in super bowl history to put the Giants in striking distance. A few plays later, Ahmad Bradshaw would easily run into the end zone to put the Giants up 21-17 with under a minute to go. Just like his last super bowl loss, Brady couldn’t answer and the Patriots once again fell to a wildcard Giants team.
The Patriots would fall in the AFC Championship game the next two seasons behind up and down performances from Brady and poor defensive effort. With Brady’s defense consistently faltering in the playoffs, it was fair to wonder if the Patriots and Brady for that matter would ever return to the top of the mountain again, being 10 years removed from their last super bowl title.
Brady’s dominance returns, and so does his Luck
Many questioned the 2014 Patriots after a 2-2 start and blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. They answered all of those questions by finishing 12-4 and being the first seed in the AFC. After dismantling the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC title game the Pats faced the defending champion Seahawks in Super Bowl 49. After falling behind 24-14, Brady led two touchdown drives to give the Patriots a 28-24 lead with two minutes to go. The Seahawks responded by getting down to the Patriots two yard line with 25 seconds left.
On 2nd and goal, Pete Carroll opted for a pass play with one of football’s best running backs in Marshawn Lynch in his backfield and only two yards to go. The Pass was intercepted by Malcolm Butler, sealing the win for the Patriots and earning Brady his fourth super bowl ring. While Brady certainly played well enough to win, it is worth wondering whether the Seahawks running the ball in for the win was a lucky outcome.
Last Three Rings and Luck
Tom Brady’s last three rings after his epic 28-24 win over Seattle all were eventful to say the least. An absolute collapse by the Falcons in which they squandered at least seven opportunities gave Brady his fifth super bowl win. The Falcons easily could have run out the ball, made one more play, but just couldn’t stop Brady in the second half after an abysmal first half performance by Brady. After Brady’s defense failed him in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles, he once again found a bit of good fortune the nest season.
Trailing, 28-24 in the AFC title game with under a minute to go, Brady forced a pass of Gronkowski’s hands that got intercepted and it looked like the Chiefs would be headed to the super bowl. However, due to defensive end Dee Ford lining up just inches offside the interception did not count, and Brady led the Patriots to an overtime win to advance to the super bowl. In Super Bowl LIII, the Patriots and Rams struggled throughout offensively, with the game tied at 3 heading into the fourth quarter. After the patriots scored a go ahead touchdown late in the fourth, they held on for a 13-3 victory. Lost in Brady’s 6th super bowl win was the fact that his defense just held the leagues number one offense to 27 points below their scoring average.
Ring on the Buccaneers
After an early playoff exit against the Titans, Brady opted for a new challenge and headed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After an up and down regular season, Brady led the Bucs to their first playoff appearance in over a decade via a wild card spot. The postseason run to Brady’s 7th ring involved great team defense and situational football more so than luck. This is especially highlighted by the Buccaneer’s 31-9 blowout win over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. The Buccaneers defense not only held the Chiefs to way below their scoring average, but also held Patrick Mahomes to below double digits for the first time in his career.
What Brady’s success should mean for how we evaluate QBs
If you’ve made it all the way to this point you may be wondering why I am even calling Tom Brady lucky if I think he’s the GOAT. The bigger point of this article is to show how silly it is for NFL media, fans, and other players to evaluate Quarterback’s legacy based on wins. This is not to say that winning doesn’t matter, but more to highlight how much of a factor a quarterback’s defense plays in a game as well as coaching and every other player on the field. Brady got incredibly lucky in a few of his most famous playoff wins but also incredibly unlucky in some of his super bowl losses. Tom Brady’s talent and knowledge of football and good fortune ultimately made him the GOAT, and it’s ok to acknowledge that when looking at his career, and when evaluating QBs in the future.
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