With the 2024 NFL Draft just eleven days away, hot takes, mock drafts, and smokescreens are surfacing everywhere on the internet. With the draft just right around the corner, we are starting to see a clearer picture of what to expect on night one.
This draft is expected to be quarterback-heavy, and DraftKings put out odds on how many quarterbacks will be selected in the first round, with the over 4.5 being juiced to -200, expecting at least five gone on night one.
The top four quarterbacks, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and JJ McCarthy, are seemingly locked into the top ten. Who that fifth quarterback will be is up for discussion, but the two names with the most attention are Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix.
University of Oregon Quarterback Bo Nix
According to mock drafts all around the world Oregon quarterback Bo Nix seemingly is in the mix to be the fifth quarterback selected. At DraftKings, Nix is a +140 underdog to be selected in the first round.
Heisman finalist from a year ago, Bo Nix looks to bring his playmaking ability to the NFL. Nix had a sensational final season at Oregon posting 51 total touchdowns. He showed that he has the athleticism needed to play at the NFL level.
Due to his experience, Bo Nix brings in a great ability to diagnose the defense pre-snap and work through his progressions post-snap. Where Nix has struggled is with his accuracy, he unfortunately has put on tape an abundance of overthrows, and a tendency to leave throws short when being blitzed.
Nix’s combination of intelligence and athleticism makes him a desirable prospect for teams trying to land a quarterback late in the first round or early second round.
University of Washington Quarterback Michael Penix Jr
Another player who is in the mix to be the fifth quarterback selected is National Championship runner-up Michael Penix out of Washington. Penix is a +125 underdog on DraftKings to go in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Penix is coming off of the best year of his career throwing for 4,900 yards in 2023, a season in which he led the Washington Huskies to the national championship. Penix was a five-year starter in college and brings plenty of football experience to the table.
Michael Penix Jr brings an elite-level pocket presence to the NFL, only being sacked 31 times in his college career. Penix set the college football world on fire last year with his ability to throw the deep ball. However, the weakness that has plagued Penix throughout his career is being able to stay on the field. He has suffered multiple season-ending injuries which included two ACL tears. We have seen scouts recently be fearful of injury history as Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker fell to the third round in last year’s draft.
With the books juicing the over on 4.5 quarterbacks being selected in the first round, we see great value in taking either Nix or Penix Jr to be a first-round selection.
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