As expansion talks heat up again (as if they ever cooled down), Big 12 fans are left wondering what and how the conferences will all end up lining up. For the Big 12, they have perhaps the most questions and least amount of answers. In fact, it isn’t even particularly close. The Big 10 and SEC can be pretty confident that they either will be expanding with some combination of Florida State, Miami, Clemson, and North Carolina, or they won’t be. Teams like NC State, Oregon State, or Pittsburgh aren’t on their radars.
The possibilities for the league are endless. Will they expand to 18? 20? Not at all? What if Super Conferences start to form? All of these questions and more will be answered in this article.
Possibility 1: ACC Dissolves, Big 4 ACC Schools to SEC and Big 10
If Clemson, Florida State, Miami and UNC all end up in those two conferences, the next logical step would be for the Big 12 to expand to 20 teams. This is where things get interesting. The next biggest brands would be NC State, Virginia, Stanford, and either Cal or Louisville.
Despite these being the biggest brands, they aren’t the ones the Big 12 should target.
There is no denying that the gap between the SEC/Big 10 and the Big 12 would be massive. Adding big brands would do very little to close any gap. Instead, they should focus on rivalries and markets.
For this reason, getting Pittsburgh (West Virginia rival), Georgia Tech (Georgia market), Virginia (market), and Cal/Stanford/SDSU (California market) would be the four schools I would go with.
Sure, this conference may get mocked at first, when it comes to rivalry weekend and recruiting markets, the Big 12 would be better positioned than the SEC and competitive with the Big 10.
Possibility 2: SEC and Big 10 Don’t Expand
In this scenario, the Big 12 should still go after Florida State and Clemson and then sit and wait. There is no reason to become the biggest conference in the country when there isn’t a clear third team to add. Yes, Miami is a huge name, but with UCF and Florida already in the conference, their added value wouldn’t make a ton of sense. North Carolina is the distant fourth biggest brand in the conference and wouldn’t make a ton of sense to bring on without a fourth addition.
Possibility 3: Florida State and Other ACC Schools Can’t Get of of Grant of Rights
If it is found that the ACC schools are indeed stuck until 2036 there is likely not going to be any major realignment in the Power Conferences. However, this doesn’t mean that the Big 12 should do nothing.
Rather than focusing on football, the Big 12 should go get Gonzaga and UConn and become an even more dominant force in basketball. Would UConn agree to come in all sports but football? Maybe not, but it’s worth trying.
As basketball continues to become more popular among a younger demographic, having a serious TV contract separate from football seems very plausible.
Big 12 is in Survival Mode, Not Wait and See
The ultimate reason for the downfall of the Pac 12 wasn’t issues with the markets, brands, rivalries, or interest. The issue was their hesitancy to act. Time after time, the Pac 12 had opportunities to land a blow to the Big 12 and to an extent Mountain West Conference, but hesitated and ultimately ended up being blindsided by the Big 10.
As of right now, the Big 12 being torn apart doesn’t seem likely, however if the SEC and Big 10 continue to grow their footprint and relevance, the Big 12 may find themselves too far behind to catch up or make up ground later.