Like a schoolteacher sending home mid-quarter progress reports, it is time for me to share my Virginia Tech Football 2023 report card with midseason grades. Half of the season is over, and it is a good time to look back at the first six games and evaluate the performance of this team so far.
The Hokies are 2-4 heading into their week seven homecoming contest against Wake Forest. Two weeks ago, they played their best game of the year against Pitt, but just last week they fell victim to their earlier season struggles and lost by 22 to Florida State. Although the Hokies’ record is exactly where I predicted it to be after six games, the general feel of the fanbase is skittish when it comes to the idea of salvaging a bowl bid.
As a fan, this is easily one of the most difficult articles to write. It almost seems blasphemous to say what I am about to say. However, like the aforementioned schoolteacher would do, I am going to impart a little life lesson into this particular piece: it is important to acknowledge our own flaws and failures, because if we don’t, we are bound to repeat them. And it is from these struggles that we can show the most growth.
When it comes to the season so far, my heart really wants to give somewhat decent grades and evaluations based on the hope that things can turn around, but my mind is winning this battle. The numbers do not lie. Right now, a lot of numbers are stacked against those emotions in my heart, and they paint a gloomy picture of what has transpired over the past six weeks.
To quote Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells, “You are what your record says you are.” Twisting this a little but keeping the message, I’d like to say that “You are what the numbers say you are.”
Even though there are some bright spots in the season so far, my evaluations are heavily based on the numbers. With that in mind here is the Virginia Tech football 2023 report card for midseason:
Offense
While the 2023 Virginia Tech offense is slightly better than last year’s unit, finding consistency is still difficult for the Hokies’ O.
In their two wins, Tech has scored 36 and 38 points respectively, which is very good – much better than last year when the Hokies never even reached 30 points in a game. However, in all of their four losses, Virginia Tech has failed to eclipse the 17-point mark, hitting exactly that three times and scoring 16 at Rutgers.
This is not just about poor line play or lack of execution. The players are not always put in position to exploit their strengths and that can be a problem if it remains inconsistent. Take last weekend for example. Coming off a thorough beating of Pitt where the Hokies ran the ball a whopping 59 times, the offensive scheme to start the Florida State game left fans scratching their heads:
- On their first possession, which followed a 13-play, 75-yard FSU touchdown drive, Tech went pass-pass-pass-punt. A three-and-out that took a minute and a half off the clock.
- On their second possession, which followed a 7-play, 66-yard FSU touchdown drive, Tech went run-pass-pass-punt. Another three-and-out, and this one took less time off the clock (54 seconds).
- On their third possession of the game, which followed a 7-play, 45-yard FSU touchdown drive, Tech went run-pass-pass-punt, taking a mere 1:24 off the clock.
After three possessions, Virginia Tech ran nine plays, seven of which were pass plays, for no first downs. They took less than four minutes off the clock.
Meanwhile, FSU ran 27 plays, keeping the Virginia Tech defense on the field for over 11 minutes. The Seminoles went up 22-0, a hole the Hokies could not climb out of (which is another recurring theme this year – digging big holes)
Who knows how this game plays out if the offense commits itself to the run like it did against Pitt? The offense needed to move the chains and sustain some drives. The defense was on the field for 11 of the 15 minutes of the first quarter. They needed help. Throwing the ball 5 of the first 6 plays and 7 of the first 9 is not a recipe to proved that help, especially when the quarterback’s strength is NOT the passing game.
Since being hired, head coach Brent Pry has said repeatedly that he wants to establish the run. Why did Virginia Tech not attempt to do that against the Seminoles? After deciding to commit to the run in the second quarter, the Hokies racked up 209 yards on the ground, mostly over three quarters. Why wasn’t that part of the game plan from the start?
This was a problem at Marshall, too, when Tech ran the ball 30 times but threw it 35 times. Keep in mind that Marshall registered five sacks, which show up as rushes but were designed pass plays. So really, Tech ran the ball 25 times and attempted to throw it 40!! Factor in any Kyron Drones scrambles that were pass-plays-turned-run-plays, and that number is even worse.
The bottom line is that Virginia Tech’s offense needs to establish a run-first identity and stick to it. It is their strength.
Bhayshul Tuten is a beast, and Malachi Thomas seems to be turning a corner. And Drones has proven to be a weapon in the run game. Virginia Tech should force opponents to defend the run first. The Hokies should embrace this identity like they did against Pitt.
In addition to struggling with establishing an identity, the Hokies are finding it difficult to score. In their four losses, Virginia Tech has only scored 17, 16, 17, and 17 points. Yes, that is consistency, but not the kind the Hokies need right now!
The offense has shown some bursts of promise – the 209 yards rushing against FSU was the most of the year, and they have made some valiant comeback efforts. There have been some adjustments in play-calling. (Two flea-flickers in two weeks? Has any Tech fan ever seen that before?) However, those small accolades are grossly overshadowed by this unit’s shortcomings. The statistics support this.
There are 130 FBS teams. The following stats show how much struggle and inconsistency the Hokies have had so far:
- VT is 89th nationally in rushing offense (140.2 ypg)
- They are tied for 75th in red zone offense (.818 pctg)
- They rank 117th in third down conversion percentage (.318) – and that includes 8 for 16 against Pitt!
- VT’s scoring offense ranks 94th (23.5 ppg) – and if we only calculate the four losses, they would drop to the bottom six in the country!
- They are 95th in team passing efficiency
- They rank 101st in total offense (342.8 ypg)
On top of all this, turnovers are an issue. Virginia Tech has lost four fumbles and thrown three interceptions. They have seven turnovers in six games, and their turnover margin is -1. That is not good!
GRADE: Because of these stats and the issues above, and because any form of a “C” implies a satisfactory rating, I have to give this offense a D for the first six games.
Defense
Defensively, the Hokies are a little Jekyll and Hyde. The pass defense is statistically tremendous: 8th in passing yards allowed (159.8 avg per game) – but the run defense is an Achilles heel (120th in the nation yielding an average of 195 ypg).
Because of the dichotomy between the run and pass defenses, a few important rankings average to the middle of the pack:
- VT is 54th in total defense (354.8 yards per game)
- They are 73rd in scoring defense (26.7 ppg)
Unfortunately, the woes of the explosive runs on the ground are catastrophic to the defensive efforts. Long runs of 50 or more yards are backbreaking, and in several cases, they squashed a Tech comeback effort and sealed the victory for the opponent. Nationally, Virginia Tech is second to last in giving up five of these long runs:
#Hokies have allowed five runs of 50-plus yards this year. Only Marshall has allowed more.
— Andy Bitter (@AndyBitterVT) October 7, 2023
Also, Virginia Tech is tied for dead last in red zone defense, allowing scores in all 14 opposing trips inside the twenty-yard line. They are one of only four teams to allow points in every red zone trip, with most of those coming as touchdowns (see tweets below)
Drilling down further: the #Hokies have given up a TD in the red zone 78.6% of the time (11 out of 14), 6th-worst in the country. Virginia Tech gives up 6.14 points per red zone trip, 4th-worst in the country.
(Assuming a TD=7 points including the PAT) https://t.co/xgh17kA6vs
— Will Stewart (@WillStewartTSL) October 11, 2023
The Hokies defense is not helping in the turnover battle either. Since the Old Dominion game, where Virginia Tech caused three fumbles in stymying the Monarchs’ comeback, Tech has only generated three more turnovers, all interceptions. Those three interceptions are in the bottom third nationally in that category.
The Tech cornerbacks are very good, but this unit has dropped a few sure interceptions. And they have not forced a fumble since the opener. If Tech is going to win four more game, yes it has to play more consistently and more complementary, but this defense is going to have to stop giving up long runs and start generating takeaways.
Credit is due to Chris Marve for making some in-game adjustments that have helped the Hokies claw back into games. However, the failure to develop the linebackers through the first six games in a growing concern. The FSU game saw multiple long runs, and at this point in the season, fans want to see improvement, especially in areas of weakness.
GRADE: So while some of the overall statistics put Tech’s defense in the middle of the pack, the sheer number of big plays yielded, the lack of turnovers generated, and struggles of the middle linebacker and safety play prevent me from saying that the defense is “satisfactory.” Thus, the mid-season grade for this unit is “D+.”
Special Teams
The Virginia Tech special teams have been fairly consistent so far. There have been very few special teams plays that have hurt Tech, but then again, outside of Tuten’s kickoff return against FSU, there have not been many explosive or game-changing plays either.
A look at the statistics shows that the Virginia Tech special teams are doing ok:
- Tech has not allowed any kicks or punts blocked against, but they also have not blocked any either
- They are tied for 7th in kickoff touchbacks with 26; however, on those that are returned, Tech is ranked 86th in average yards yielded
- The Hokies’ kick return average ranks 20th nationally – no doubt helped by Tuten’s 99-yard touchdown run
- VT is 18th in punt return average yards, but they have no punt returns for a TD
- Tech is 54th in net punting
- They are 69th in punt return defense
- Punter Peter Moore is 35th nationally with a 43.24 average
- Kicker John Love is tied for 20th in the nation with an .875 field goal percentage (7 for 8)
- Bhayshul Tuten is 23rd nationally in all-purpose yards per game with 123.33 ypg (yeah, I know, this isn’t really a special teams stat, but where else does this noteworthy stat fit in?
While there are some good numbers there and some good performers, there has not been enough consistency for this to be considered an outstanding unit. There have been a few costly slip-ups too: the missed field goal at Rutgers on the second drive, the shanked punt at Rutgers that led to an end-of-half touchdown, and the Florida State two-point conversion that caught this unit sleeping.
GRADE: This is a good unit. Yes it could be better, but it is not hurting the Hokies. It’s grade? B
Overall Grade
It is difficult to give a grade of C here because that implies a satisfactory evaluation. Let’s face it – there are many in Hokie Nation who are not okay with a 2-4 record right now, coaches and players included. So “satisfactory” is not appropriate.
And if the Hokies continue this trajectory – winning one of every three games – they will finish 4-8, which really isn’t any better than last year’s 3-8 record.
There are a lot of winnable games still remaining on this schedule, but this is not a forecast article. This is an assessment article. And right now, with a winning percentage of .333, offensive and defensive rankings in the bottom half (and some in the bottom quarter) of the national rankings, and few recurring issues that have caused significant struggle (explosive plays yielded, falling behind early), there is only one way to evaluate the team so far.
GRADE: It is not a failure – because there are glimmers of hope – but it is not satisfactory. So “D” is really the only grade to give here.
Final Thoughts on the Virginia Tech Football 2023 Report Card with Midseason Grades
The good news in all of this is that the season is only half over. There are still six more games to play, plenty of time to write the story that will be the 2023 Virginia Tech football season.
The remaining schedule is fair, and most rational Tech fans will say that the Hokies have a decent chance to win most if not all of the games if they play more complementary football for four quarters and stop giving up big plays.
(Wake and Syracuse are no pushovers, but they are hardly world-beaters either. Louisville on the road looks like a tough matchup, but then the Hokies end November at Boston College, home against North Carolina State, and away at Lane Stadium North, er, Scott Stadium in Hoo-ville. There are three to five wins in there. But there are three to five losses there too if things don’t change.)
There is fight and resilience in this group. There are weapons that are showing signs of spark. There have been adjustments in some of the play-calling. And as each game goes on, the players only gain more experience, so the hope is that they will get better by November.
However, that change has to happen now. If the Hokies still hope to reach a bowl game, they have to beat Wake Forest. 3-4 is much better than 2-5 when trying to reach six wins with only five to play. Plus, there is the mental component of a win. If Tech can beat Wake, this team should have more confidence the following week on a Thursday night home contest against Syracuse.
A must win? Yes. Wake Forest is a must-win game. The Demon Deacons are not what they were with Sam Hartman at the helm, and the Hokies must take advantage of that in front of yet another sold out Lane Stadium.
If Virginia Tech can get this victory, Hokie Nation will feel a whole heckuva lot better about the remaining games, and maybe, just maybe the Hokies can push six wins and my post season report card can show much-improved grades! After all, you are what your record says you are, and if Virginia Tech can make it to 6-6, they will be an improved bowl team!
Afterthoughts
The matchup between Wake Forest and Virginia Tech is very even on paper:
- Wake’s defense is giving up 338.4 yards per game while Tech is gaining 342.8 per game (pretty much even)
- Conversely…Tech’s defense is giving up 354.8 yards per game and Wake is gaining 391.8 per game (slight advantage Wake)
- Wake is averaging 25.6 points per game, Tech is giving up 26.67 (very slight advantage Wake)
- Conversely, Wake is giving up 21.6 points per game while Tech is scoring 23.5 ppg (very slight advantage Tech)
- Wake Forest runs for 161.8 yards per game while Tech runs for 140.2 (slight advantage Wake)
Looking at those numbers, this could easily be one of those games where a big turnover or a special teams play or a – gulp – long touchdown run could be the difference in the game.
Wake Forest does not have any running backs with glaring numbers (their top tailback has 371 total yards rushing after five games), but it is supposed to rain Saturday. Will that put more emphasis on Wake’s running attack? And with Tech’s struggles defending the run, will that be a difference maker?
Speaking of dynamic playmakers, Wake’s defense has six interceptions on the season, three of which are from DeShawn Jones (he has as many as the entire Hokie defense). Defensive lineman Jasheen Davis has seven tackles for loss and linebacker Jacob Roberts has 6.5. That ranks them third and fourth respectively in the ACC. The Hokies must account for these playmakers and protect the ball this weekend!
Virginia Tech safety Jalen Stroman, who has quietly been one of the most reliable players on the defense, will sit out the first half Saturday because of his second targeting penalty of the season. If Nasir Peoples cannot return to the starting lineup, this has to be a cause of great concern for Hokie Nation as linebacker and safety play has been highly suspect on those long runs this year. (This is even more reason to run the ball and chew clock – to keep the Tech defense off the field, at least until Stroman can return!)
There’s some odd history in the series…it dates back to 1916, when the Hokies beat the Deacs 52-0. They would play four more games without a Wake Forest score! (The combined score in those five games was 201-0, or 40-0 on average!) Tech leads the series 25-13-1, but the Hokies have lost two of the last three. This series includes a Bud Foster sendoff, a Dave Clawson water girl incident, and of course, the infamous 0-0 regulation game and Frank Beamer meme!
Frank Beamer celebrating 0-0
Greatest picture ever? pic.twitter.com/lS1TdbeLTU
— The Ford Faction (@TheFordFaction) November 1, 2017
Let’s hope this one is not memorable for the wrong reasons!
It is homecoming weekend for Virginia Tech. The football game kicks off at 3:30 pm and will be televised by the ACC Network. Let’s Gooooo….Ho-kieeeeees!
To read more of my articles on Virginia Tech football, click here.