Virginia Tech expansion rumors have been rampant, as the talk on Twitter over conference realignment has been blowing up lately. Florida State is fanning the fires with all their rhetoric, and the demise of the Pac-12 is throwing gas on the flames. However, the ACC’s media deal – and specifically the Grant of Rights – has a chokehold on its members, and staying in the conference until 2036 will be like dying a slow and painful death. So what is going to happen to the ACC?
Where There is Smoke, There is Fire
There is no question that ACC school officials have been and currently are exploring opportunities to leave the conference. In the spring meetings, it was revealed that seven schools admitted to investigating their options. These “Magnificent Seven,” as they were dubbed, examined the legalities of the current media contract, but found no way out. That does not mean it won’t happen though.
The “Magnificent Seven” have formed:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
NC State
Virginia
Virginia TechThey have met with lawyers recently to see how truly “unbreakable” the grant of rights with the ACC is. It currently goes through 2026.
via @Brett_McMurphy pic.twitter.com/zyYD1AuMph
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) May 15, 2023
Florida State in particular has been extremely vocal in voicing their dissatisfaction. If anyone is going to lead the charge out of the league, they are likely to be the standard bearers. And big names like Clemson and Miami are also rumored to be unhappy with the current contract. These schools will continue to find a way, any way, to get out of this deal and into one of the two soon-to-be mega conferences.
Another thought is that change comes next year. Both the Big Ten and SEC will expand to 16 teams next season. The college football playoff also expands to 12 teams. If Florida State – or any other ACC school – is going to leave the conference and play somewhere else in 2024, they have until August 15 to make that announcement. Is this timing right?
This expansion of the playoffs will serve those two power conferences best. The rest of the Power 5 schools are likely to earn 3-5 playoff bids each year. Do the math – that is a huge payout to the Big Ten and SEC if they dominate the seedings.
All Talk, No Action
Expansion talk surfaces every off season. This year has been particularly active, but until something actually happens, it is difficult for this Virginia Tech fan to be anything more than a Doubting Thomas and actually believe the rumors.
The ACC’s Grant of Rights is a ball and chain that will prevent any team from leaving unless at least eight member teams decide to leave. But those eight schools would need guaranteed landing spots in order to make that decision. For the top schools, that is a given. But what about Louisville? Georgia Tech? Pitt? Duke? If there were greener pastures for those schools, wouldn’t they just join the Magnificent Seven and dissolve the league, escaping this horribly painful death?
And the league has no reason to just capitulate now. They have a guarantee. If they are facing eventual obsolescence, why give in now? We know how bureaucracy can be – there is a lot of money going to the big suits, so why wouldn’t they hang on for as long as they can?
It is like the ACC schools are drowning because they are swimming with an anchor. And the League – and ESPN – has a foot the heads of those schools.
Good luck on getting out of that GOR deal and have fun paying the ACC all of your media revenue as well as a potential lawsuit to break the grant of rights. Funny this is the same song and dance every year and someone always claims they have some inside info that FSU is leaving. https://t.co/jJNkWfSGJF
— Yinzer King (@steelpanthers72) July 28, 2023
Another significant thought is that most of the recent realignments have been surprise announcements. When was the last time a conference realignment followed weeks or even months of public rumors? Texas and Oklahoma surprised everyone with their announcement to join the SEC, and USC and UCLA came out of absolutely nowhere last summer to announce they were heading to the Big Ten.
Florida State is making such a stink that it is hard to take them seriously anymore. If they are that hell-bent on leaving the conference, they would have done it already. That speaks volumes to the complexity of this issue.
Is This About Footprints and Media Markets? Or Money?
Other than the issue with the ACC, the idea of predicting who goes where in expansion is next to impossible. Is this about expanding footprints and adding media markets? Or is it about adding brands? Or is it about the almighty dollar?
In terms of expanding footprints and gaining media access, it would make sense for the Big Ten to dip into Atlanta (Georgia Tech), Miami, and Boston (Boston College). But does the conference want those schools? Georgia Tech has not been particularly good in a long time. And BC could – probably will – be another Rutgers, where the media market is monstrous but nobody in the region gives a rat’s you-know-what about college sports. Those are pro towns – do the Big Ten and SEC really want to go there?
What about branding? Duke is the best basketball name in the ACC and their brand is strong nationally. But not for football, and football is king in expansion talk. (Thus it is no surprise that Duke is not mentioned ANYWHERE in these talks). UVa has a pretty strong brand name, but the Big Ten already has the DC market with Maryland, so will they want schools in Virginia? Or is the SEC going to expand to the Mid-Atlantic?
Further complicating the mess is the Big Ten’s preference to academic prowess and AAU accreditation. Georgia Tech, UNC, UVa, and Pitt are all AAU accredited schools, but only two of them are mentioned as expansion targets. Conversely, Florida State is mentioned in numerous rumors. So is this really about money? (Of course it is…but the academic piece of the expansion puzzle is intriguing).
Big Ten rumored to be adding four prominent schools this week
"Barstool Sports' Jack McGuire is hearing a rumor that the Big Ten is adding four schools this week: Clemson, Florida State, Oregon, and Washington." https://t.co/dtBvtYEuUS
— SuperWest Sports (@SuperWestSports) July 31, 2023
How to Make the Dominos Fall
There are still two keys to make expansion happen right now: Notre Dame and the Grant of Rights.
If Notre Dame decides to join a conference, the rest of the dominoes will fall immediately. The Irish are adamant about their own sovereignty, and they have the best of both worlds with their “have my cake and eat it too” agreement with the ACC. Since they have guaranteed scheduling with five ACC schools every year and a home for their other sports, why would they join a conference now?
The Big Ten and SEC should force Notre Dame’s hand. If those conferences expanded and made their member teams play league-only schedules, Notre Dame would lose all of their rivalries and high-profile games. Who would they play? A schedule of MAC teams and maybe some schools from the expanded Big XII is less than appealing, so maybe that would force them into a conference.
There is no reason to think Notre Dame is giving up its independence right now though. If it materializes and the Irish think its best course of action is to join a conference, however, then the sky is definitely falling for everyone else and schools will frantically do what they can to get a seat before the music stops.
The other barrier to mega-expansion is the ACC’s Grant of Rights. For those unfamiliar with the issue, the current ACC media contract is beyond stifling. For a team to leave the conference, they would first have to pony up an exit fee that is north of $100 million. Then the Grant of Rights kicks in, where that school forfeits all of its future media money to the ACC – until 2036!
The Green Light (for you Gatsby fans) is that if the league loses eight members at once, then it folds and the Grant of Rights is not an issue. The problem is that eight schools need guaranteed landing spots that are better options than what they already have, and that is hardly a lock.
A recent tweet made an excellent point here – if a few teams decide to leave the conference right now, their exit fee plus their Grant of Right forfeitures would be a windfall for the remaining schools. The Wake Forests and Syracuses of the conference would be in a good place if that happened, far better than if they agreed to leave the conference without a better offer.
Say FSU and 3 more bail and pay the full fee. Wouldn’t the math say for the remaining 10 schools to just stay together and collect the money until 2036? The ESPN deal plus the 480M plus the four’s home games? How are the ones left gonna top that number elsewhere?
— WAWA over Sheetz ¯_(ツ)_/¯ (@Angelsand182) August 2, 2023
Virginia Tech Expansion – Where do the Hokies Fit?
So what does this mean for Virginia Tech? The Hokies have been mentioned as part of package deals to both the SEC and the Big Ten. They are also part of the Magnificent Seven. However, nothing official is on the table.
Where do they fit? Virginia Tech is a southern school, so an SEC membership makes sense. Also, the rabid fan base and emphasis on football do align with the SEC, and conference they ironically shunned for academics at its inception almost a century ago.
That academic focus fits well with the Big Ten. Also, on the field, brand of football in Blacksburg looks more like Big Ten football. Add the cold weather of November and the Big Ten would feel right at home in Lane stadium.
And if neither conference comes calling? The Big XII is likely to scoop up the Hokies in its bid to compete with the big boys. Although that is not ideal, it is a better option than being left out altogether.
Don’t Believe the Hype
In the end, I think expansion will happen, and the ACC will go the route of the Big East and become a basketball conference with a few of its original members plus the “lesser” teams that it can convince to join them (if it even stays in existence). It is likely that the Big Ten and SEC dominate the national football scene and the Big XII stays alive as a third wheel. Yes, the Big XII would essentially be Conference USA 4.0 because it will be made up of the “leftovers,” but it could be viable.
The Pac-12 train is already coming off the rails, and the ACC train will follow suit if the member schools do not find a way out of the vice grip of the league. With options in the Big Ten, SEC, and Big XII likely opening, there should be landing spots for eight schools to eventually come together and bolt.
The musical chairs theme song will play on for a while though. But when the music stops, Virginia Tech hopes to have a chair at the Big Ten or SEC tables. If not, a Big XII bid is better than the prospect of staying in the ACC for 13 more years (or even worse, watching the league fold and having nowhere to go except, gasp, the AAC or Conference USA!)
With news of the B1G exploring the additions of Washington, Oregon, Cal & Stanford we get closer and closer to this scenario pic.twitter.com/f3f9vbftlL
— Sidelines Sports Network™ (@Sidelines_SN) August 2, 2023
And until this actually happens, I’m not a believer in any of the rumors. Right now at least. If it was that easy, Florida State would already be out of the ACC. Some day, however, I will be wrong, and maybe that day comes this month; but for now, I think it’s at least a year away, if not more, and all this Twitter talk is just much ado about nothing.
Love it or hate it, bring on ACC football!
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