UVA vs. Louisville: Can the Cavs Achieve Victory at Home in Week 6?

It’s the Cavs vs. the Cardinals, Louisville style in this week’s matchup for UVA. After a tough loss on the road last weekend,  the Cavs are back home in Scott Stadium this Saturday where they’ll face off against the Louisville Cardinals. Hopefully, this game brings home another win at home and a much needed morale boost for the Cavaliers! Kickoff for UVA vs. Louisville is at 12:00 PM EST and the game is available to watch on ACC Network.

Week 5: A Brief Recap

The Cavs are having a hell of a tough go this season. After much fanfare in the offseason, the offense hasn’t lived up to its 2021 dominance. The defense, which I previously called a Cinderella story, has performed better than expected but it hasn’t quite been enough. The Cavs are 2-3 right now and 0-2 in the ACC.

Last week, the Cavs played the Duke Blue Devils on their home turf in Durham, N.C. In a 38-17 defeat, UVA made a lot of mistakes including two turnovers and six penalties for 87 yards. Duke was able to rush for 248 yards and four scores, and closed out the game victorious. Something of a rivalry game, the ending was a bitter one for the Cavaliers.

It didn’t help that after only a handful of plays, the Cavs lost WR Billy Kemp IV to an ankle injury. This was Kemp’s first game back for the Cavs after missing the previous two due to illness. Looking forward, the Cavs will call on younger players to try to fill the void Kemp left.

UVA vs. Louisville: Hoos On Deck

In the wake of Kemp’s absence, Virginia will call on younger talent including Ethan Davies, Demick Starling, and Sean Wilson to shore up the offense and move the Cavaliers in a positive direction for the remainder of the season.

Offensive tackle McKale Boley, who performed well for the Cavs early in the season, is still day-to-do but there is hope in the secondary this week.

Cornerback Fentrell Cyprus is expected to return to play against Louisville, along with Jonathan Horton who has also been spending much of his time on special teams this season.

Cavaliers Defense: All Eyes on Nick Jackson

The defense, and Nick Jackson in particular, need to come prepared for this week’s UVA vs. Louisville contest. Despite only playing in the second half at Duke last week, Jackson recorded 10 tackles-the second most on the team-and that wasn’t even his best performance of the season.

Last weekend, Cardinals QB Malik Cunningham exited their game against Boston College due to injury and it’s unclear whether he’ll return this week. If he does, the Cavaliers linebackers will have a tough job ahead of them on Saturday. Right now, Cunningham is ranked third in the ACC in rushing yards, averaging 91.4 per game. Nick Jackson is the leader of Virginia’s defense. His leadership and experience will be critical to mitigating the damage Cunningham is allowed to inflict in Scott Stadium this week.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s D-Line has to improve against the run after last week’s loss to Duke. Louisville has the best rushing offense in the conference, whereas Virginia has the fourth worst defense against the run. This game will be a true test of the Cavs’ progress and a look into what the Tony Elliott administration needs to do moving forward to turn the team-or really, the program-around.

Cavaliers Offense: Three Players to Watch This Week

Offensively, the Cavs may find hope in the porosity of the Cardinals’ defense. Louisville’s defense has allowed the third most rushing yards per game, including 149 to Boston College last week. A strong running game will be crucial for Virginia this weekend, with the Cavs relying heavily on Perris Jones, Keytaon Thompson, and Brennan Armstrong for consistency and production.

Against Duke, running back Perris Jones only had eight carries but he worked the field efficiently. He ran for 41 yards against Duke, and has 314 yards on the ground this season so far. Right now, these are the seventh best numbers in the ACC. The Cavs should work to use Jones in much the same manner this week as he remains a consistent presence for the offense, even in times of struggle.

Perhaps the most consistently productive part of Virginia’s offensive unit is wide receiver Keytaon Thompson. So far, Thompson has racked up 32 receptions for 351 yards this season. He has finished every game with at least 55 yards. Thompson consistently challenges his defensive matchups in a way that neither Dontayvion Wicks nor Lavel Davis have so far. As such, Thompson is Brennan Armstrong’s most reliable target-really, he is exactly what Coach Elliott wants his whole team to be. Louisville’s pass defense is the “third least efficient unit in the ACC,” per Michael Curran of 247 Sports, and it’s likely Thompson will be tasked with capitalizing on said inefficiency on Saturday.

Last but not least, quarterback Brennan Armstrong is fighting to keep the Cavs alive this season. Last week was a better week for Armstrong, despite the final score. Against Duke, Armstrong completed 19 of 37 passes for 202 yards and one touchdown. This is the third time this season that Armstrong has broken 200 yards, In all reality, it’s uncommon for Armstrong not to break 200 yards but this has been a challenging season and breaking 200 yards in three of five games so far shows he’s still got what it takes to lead this offense through the season. This week is another opportunity to keep improving those numbers.

Louisville has allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns in the ACC this season. They’re also tied for second in the ACC for interceptions but even so, Armstrong should be able to find and exploit some weak spots to allow Virginia’s offense to make some much needed gains.  A strong performance from Brennan Armstrong is a requirement for Virginia’s success this week.

UVA vs. Louisville: Betting Odds

Once again, Virginia heads into the weekend as the underdog.

Per FanDuel Sportsbook, the spread for Virginia is +2.5. The moneyline is +116 and the over/under is 50.5. There is a lot to think about with this game as both teams are coming in trying to redeem themselves after losses in week five. There is also uncertainty for both teams in light of injuries and who will be called on to fill critical roles.

So, I’m going to try to remain optimistic. I think Virginia can pull off a win, but I’m going to bet small and go with the moneyline this week.

To see if Virginia has what it takes to even out the season, tune in to ACC Network at noon on Saturday to watch UVA vs. Louisville!