This week’s Thursday Night Football game isn’t exactly a barnburner, but there are some important things at stake. Pittsburgh badly needs a win if they want to remain in the playoff picture. Bill Belichick is coaching to preserve his legacy. Having a backup quarterback battle isn’t the most exciting, but it could lead to cleaner prop betting. In any case, there’s good value to be taken advantage of tonight.
Thursday Night Football- Week 14: Patriots @ Steelers
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson: An ankle injury will force New England’s starting running back to rest and recover this week. He’d been running well recently, averaging at least four yards a carry the last few weeks. Ezekiel Elliott will be the starter this week. He should see at least 15 carries against one of the poorest run defenses in the league. Expect at least a goal-line touchdown for him as well.
Demario Douglas: A concussion will sideline New England’s best receiver for another week. It’ll be a struggle this week for Patriots Quarterback Bailey Zappe, who’ll be throwing to primary receivers DeVante Parker and Juju Smith-Schuster. I’d expect the offense to be primarily run-focused even though they’re without their starting running back. Look for the tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki to be targeted highly.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett: The Steelers will be without their starter this week as he recovers from his ankle injury. Mitch Trubisky will be stepping in to start. He didn’t look that bad last week which was a positive sign. This week will likely tell a different story since Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 2nd in run defense. Trubisky will be forced to make a lot of tough throws tonight. Some he’ll make, others will be turnovers. Diontae Johnson will likely lead the Steelers in receiving tonight since Trubisky favors him.
AP Photo/Barry Reeger
Analysis:
The over/under for this game is only at 30, the lowest total since the 1993 season. Although it’s lower than ever, still take it. There likely won’t be more than 2-3 touchdowns this entire game. One of the under-the-radar props I like tonight is Jaylen Warren’s over on receptions. New England’s pass rush only has a pass rush of 4.9% and ranks 26th in the league, which should lead to plenty of checkdowns to Jaylen Warren tonight. I’d stay away from any Steelers’ over that’s not Diontae Johnson or Jaylen Warren.
There isn’t much value on the Patriots’ side, but we do know one thing. They’re going to run the damn ball. Outside of Ezekiel Elliott’s over-on carries, there won’t be much to choose from. With the Patriots expected to use Malik Cunningham in some unknown capacity, we’re not sure what to expect. Bailey Zappe should try his best to manage the game, but New England will likely fall to 2-11 after tonight’s contest.
To see the full official injury report, click here.
