Allowing your quarterback to “test” free agency is like letting your girlfriend go out dancing while you stay at home. Either you don’t really care for her or you’re thinking about someone else. In an article by Mike Florio, he explains that Tampa Bay plans to let Baker test free agency, and I believe Tampa Bay will be surprised by how valuable a top-ten quarterback truly is.
The most likely reason Tampa Bay is allowing Mayfield to explore the market is because they are not close enough, contract-wise, to strike a deal. While re-signing Mike Evans was undoubtedly a priority, the Bucs began the offseason with $47.1 million in cap space, ranking eighth in the league. Baker should also be a top priority, and Tampa Bay should meet his demands. He is an underappreciated talent in the NFL who deserves a team that truly values him. I believe Tampa wants to bring Baker back, but they wouldn’t be upset if the younger Kyle Trask became the starter, enabling them to save on a hefty QB contract. However, I believe this a mistake.
Baker Mayfield has Heart.
Baker Mayfield is one of the most passionate players in the league. Whether the team’s record is 1-12 or 12-1, he gives his all every Sunday, and that’s admirable in a player. Moreover, Baker is undeniably talented. He had a remarkable 2023 season, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns, even in a year when QB performances across the league were somewhat lackluster. He led the team to win the division, albeit in the sub-par NFC South, surpassing all expectations for Tampa Bay this season. Expecting Kyle Trask to replicate those numbers is unrealistic. Additionally, we’ve never seen Trask perform in a high-pressure game, whereas Baker…he’s a gamer.
Tampa Bay isn’t that far away.
Tampa Bay reached the divisional round of the playoffs last year. This is not a team in need of a rebuild, and settling for Kyle Trask is simply insufficient. Having won a Super Bowl not too long ago, and with many of the same players still on the roster, Tampa is a legitimate playoff team with post-season aspirations. In Baker’s career, he has thrown for ten touchdowns, three interceptions, and 1,153 yards in four playoff games, boasting a 2-2 record. A quarterback capable of winning playoff games is a rare find, and Baker is certainly capable. If the Bucs allow him to hit free agency, he will command a top-tier salary.
Outcomes.
Tampa’s hope is that Baker enters free agency, doesn’t receive the offers he expects, and ultimately re-signs with Tampa Bay for a lower price. This scenario might occur initially as many quarterback-needy teams will be focused on the draft. However, once the draft concludes, if Baker remains unsigned, his price tag will soar. Teams that missed out on their desired quarterback in the draft or those preferring their rookie QBs to sit for a season will vie for Baker’s services. The Vikings and Patriots are potential landing spots for Baker in this scenario. Simply put, if Tampa is unwilling to pay Baker, someone else certainly will.
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