In the latest College Football Playoff rankings, SMU was ranked #13. The Mustangs head coach, Rhett Lashlee, reacted to this ranking, saying, “We gotta win. If we don’t win, we don’t deserve to be in.” At the #13 spot, SMU is currently projected to be one of the first teams out of the 12-team College Football Playoff. They hold a 9-1 record and if they can win out, they will make the ACC Championship Game, which will give them a chance to secure an automatic bid into the playoff.
SMU’s Playoff Resume
Lashlee and the SMU Mustangs are currently undefeated in ACC conference play. They have two ranked wins on the season against Louisville, who was ranked #22 at the time, and Pittsburgh, who was ranked #18. Also, in their victories, SMU has looked strong. They have won convincingly over conference opponents, with their only real scare coming in an overtime victory over Duke. But since SMU is not in the SEC, their one loss holds more weight to the College Football Playoff Committee. That loss came early in the season against BYU, 18-15. BYU was undefeated until they were upset by the Kansas Jayhawks, and are ranked #14, one spot behind SMU.
Because of SMU’s current position in the rankings, Lashlee is correct in his assessment. The Mustangs need to win to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. They play their final two regular season games on the road against Virginia and at home against California. Technically, SMU can take a loss and still make the ACC Championship if things break their way, but they should be expected to win out. In the ACC Conference Championship Game, Miami and Clemson are the only other teams with a chance to qualify. Miami is ranked #8 and Clemson is ranked #17.
So, if SMU wins out and makes it to the ACC Championship, it will be a battle for a playoff spot. The conference champions in the power four conferences each get automatic bids to the College Football Playoff and a first-round bye. But if they lose one more game and finishes the season with two losses, it is unlikely that they will earn one of the seven at-large bids. They have one loss and are already being passed over by SEC teams with multiple loses due to their stronger schedule. So, unless they win the ACC, a second loss would effectively eliminate SMU, barring any chaos in the last couple weeks of the season.
SMU’s Playoff Chances
The SMU Mustangs control their own destiny from here. If they win out and win the ACC, then they will make the first 12-team College Football Playoff. But, as Rhett Lashlee said, if they don’t win, they will not make it in. The ACC is one of the weaker power four conferences in terms of depth, so their schedule is not as strong as SEC or Big10 teams. Because of this, two losses would effectively eliminate them from contention.
But this should not discredit the season the Mustangs have had. They began the year unranked and in a new, stronger conference. Not many expected them to be where they are now, with a legitimate shot at making the College Football Playoff. The program has turned things around significantly since hiring Lashlee, who holds a 27-10 record in three seasons with the Mustangs.
SMU has built a strong team with Lashlee at the helm, and they are looking to cap off a stellar season with a College Football Playoff berth. To secure a spot, the SMU Mustangs need to win their final two regular season games and the ACC Championship game. If they don’t, they will have to depend on unlikely, chaotic scenarios.
