Puka Nacua is making his case to be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at the right time as the season enters its final few weeks. The former BYU standout receiver is playing his best football of the season (which is saying something) as he makes a case to be the third receiver in a row to win the award joining the Jets’ Garrett Wilson and Ja’Maar Chase.
The fifth-round draft pick was certainly expected to be a contributor this season for the Rams, and even more so when Cooper Kupp missed a few games at the beginning of the year, but nobody saw the kind of stat lines that Nacua would be putting up to this point in the season, even with Kupp back in the lineup.
But can Nacua actually win the award, or will CJ Stroud, QB for the Houston Texans? Up until this point in the season, Stroud has been the heavy favorite, but with the Texans dropping three of their last five games, Stroud being in concussion protocol, and now on the outside of the playoffs, the competition between the Stroud and Nacua could come down to smallest of margins.
Puka Nacua vs CJ Stroud: A Numbers Game
There is no question that quarterbacks run the league. But in a year where it seems half other QB is going down with injuries, CJ Stroud is ranking 8th in passing yards (3631), 11th in TD’s (20), and 5th in QB rating (98.8). Most impressive, Stroud has taken the Texans from an NFL worst 3-13-1 to a 8-7 with a real shot at making a playoffs as a wildcard team.
Puka Nacua is ranked 3rd in the league in receiving yards (1327), 6th in yards after catch (522), and has set record after record for reaching milestones as a rookie. Nacua has already has his jersey featured in the NFL Hall of Fame.
🗣️ New to the Pro Football Hall of Fame
The jersey that Puka Nacua was wearing during Week 5 against the Eagles, when the @RamsNFL rookie wide receiver set the NFL record for most receptions in his first five career games.
Full Story: https://t.co/WAtovDRJMB pic.twitter.com/PDFM6evC1w
— Pro Football Hall of Fame (@ProFootballHOF) October 18, 2023
The Deciding Factor Could Come Down to Wins and Touchdowns
Although this statement sounds obvious, it really likely will come down to the Texans getting enough wins to get to the Playoffs or Nacua pulling in more touchdowns. CJ Stroud could cement the award if he is able to lead the Texans to a 2-1 finish which would in all likelihood be enough to get the Texans to their first playoff appearance since 2019.
For Nacua, everything on his stat sheet looks fantastic besides only having five touchdown catches. While five touchdowns certainly is solid, Nacua will likely have to get that up to seven or even eight touchdowns to solidify his case.
In this competition, Stroud still has the advantage in winning the award, winning out in three of the four possible scenarios:
- Texans make playoffs, Nacua has 8 TD catches – STROUD
- Texans make playoffs, Nacua doesn’t reach 8 TD catches – STROUD
- Texans miss playoffs, Nacua reaches 8 TD catches – NACUA
- Texans miss playoffs, Nacua doesn’t reach 8 TD catches – Lean STROUD
It’s worth mentioning that Jordan Addison and Jahmyr Gibbs are also receiving some buzz for the award as well, however the recent momentum swing by Puka Nacua suggests that barring some crazy performances by Gibbs or Addison, the award may be a two-man race.
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