After a successful Week 5, it time for the Week 6 installment of Thursday Night Football Prime Picks and Props. Unfortunately, TNF once again features a battle between teams with horrendous offenses. It’s the 1-4 Washington Commanders facing the 2-3 Chicago Bears.
This game is virtually a pick’em in the eyes of the oddsmakers. On DraftKings, the Bears are 1-point home favorites with the game total sitting at 38 points. Chicago is -115 on the moneyline while Washington is -105. The spread has bounced swung back and forth since it opened, and it will likely continue all the way up until gametime.
In terms of injuries, the Bears come into this Week 6 contest in much better shape than the Commanders. Their injury report only featured three players. Meanwhile, Washington listed eight players on their injury report; including quarterback Carson Wentz, receiver Jahan Dotson and tight end Logan Thomas. All eight were listed as questionable as of Tuesday.
Notable Stats/Betting Trends
- Bears are 6th worst in NFL in points per game (17.2); Commanders are 7th worst (18.0)
- Commanders are 10th in passing yards per game (252.6 ypg); Bears are last (116.8 ypg)
- Bears are 5th in rushing yards per game (157.4 ypg); Commanders are 5th worst (89.0 ypg)
- The UNDER has hit three out of five times for both sides.
- The UNDER has hit in four out of five Thursday games this year
- Washington is 1-4 SU and ATS / Chicago is 2-2-1 ATS
Prime Picks
THE PRIME PICK: CHICAGO BEARS -1 (-110).
On paper, the Commanders are the slightly better team on both sides of the ball. However, fading Carson Wentz, which is referenced weekly on the Gridiron Heroics Football Show, has been profitable. Wentz and the offense are prone to making mistakes, and Washington doesn’t force opponents into making any.
The Commanders average 1.6 giveaways per game, and have only forced opponents into one turnover combined all season. The Bears do turn it over 1.6 times per game, but they also average 1.6 takeaways per game. In a game that’s projected to be close, the prime pick is backing the team with the better turnover margin.
BEST GAME PROP: Largest Lead of Game UNDER 13.5 (-105 DK).
Originally, the number was 14.5. However, it has been bet down (as it should have). However, it is still worth taking it at 13.5. Building a 14-point lead is a tall task for these two offensively challenged teams. This is a 1-point spread. So, the expectation is this game will be close. Also, neither team has held a lead of at least 15 points this season. Washington’s had the largest lead of the season between the two teams. They had a 14-3 advantage in Week 1 over Jacksonville Jaguars.
FAVORITE PLAYER PROP: QB Carson Wentz OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-125 DK)
Six of the Commanders’ eight giveaways this year have been Carson Wentz interceptions. He’s thrown at least one interception in four of five games this season. Meanwhile, the Bears defense has forced an interception in three out of five games. With cornerback Jaylon Johnson likely returning from injury Thursday, Chicago’s secondary becomes even more lethal. Wentz is going to take risks with the football, and it’s likely the Bears will capitalize on one of his errant throws.
ANOTHER PLAYER PROP: QB Justin Fields UNDER 23.5 Pass Attempts (-105 DK)
This is a must bet. Fields has not attempted 24 passes in a game yet this season. The Bears simply do not rely on the passing game because their receiving group isn’t great, their pass blocking is poor, and Fields has not been accurate (55.7 completion %). Also, many called passing plays turn into runs because Fields scrambles for yards a lot. The Bears won’t deviate from this strategy against the Commanders.
LONGSHOT PROP: 1st Half Result (3 Way) – TIE (+600)
The Bears are 0-5 SU in the first half of games while the Commanders are 1-4 SU in the first half. If both these teams are terrible first half performers, why not bet on them to go into halftime tied? There’s already been a tie on a Thursday night (Week 1 – Bills vs Rams). Also, teams have been separated by 1.8 points on average through five Thursday games this season. It’s not completely out of the question a halftime tie occurs.
