Thursday Night Football Prime Picks features a battle between two underwhelming teams. The 1-2-1 Indianapolis Colts travel to Denver to face the 2-2 Broncos.
On DraftKings, the Broncos opened as 3-point home favorites (now -3.5) while the total is at 43. Denver is -165 on the moneyline while Indy is a +155 underdog. It’s a tough game to get a read on, but there are some betting angles for a game involving two desperate teams.
It’s important to note both teams are banged up. Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard appears unlikely to get through concussion protocol before gametime. Plus, running back Jonathan Taylor is dealing with a toe and ankle injury, and it’s unknown if he’ll give it a go. However, the star RB said his plan is to play. On the flip side, Broncos running back Javonte Williams is done for the season after tearing his ACL and LCL. Pass rusher Randy Gregory will also miss “several weeks” after hurting his knee.
Notable Stats/Betting Trends
- Both teams are 1-3 ATS this season
- The UNDER has hit in all four of Indy’s games / UNDER has hit in three out of four of Denver’s games
- The Colts’ lone cover came as an underdog (Week 3 vs KC) / the Broncos are 0-2 ATS as favorites
- The UNDER has hit in three out of four Thursday games this year
Prime Picks
THE PRIME PICK: UNDER 43 Point Total (-110 DK). These teams don’t score points. The Colts are last in the league in points per game while the Broncos are 30th. The potential of Williams and Taylor being out will force both sides into being passing teams. However, Indy and Denver each have a top 10 pass defenses. It’s hard to see how either team sustains an offensive drive with a one-dimensional attack.
BEST GAME PROP: Longest Touchdown Yards UNDER 39.5 (-110 DK). Neither defense has allowed a 40-yard touchdown yet this season. The concern would be something fluky like a defensive or special team touchdown. The Broncos allowed a 68-yard fumble return for a touchdown last week, but that play involved a lot of luck to happen. Meanwhile, Colts quarterback Matt Ryan has fumbled it nine times (lost three) and thrown five interceptions. However, there have been no returns for a touchdown yet.
FAVORITE PLAYER PROP: WR Ashton Dulin OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DK). Dulin has cleared this number in three out of four games this season. With such a low total, he only needs a few opportunities to cover. He’s averaging 2.8 receptions and 37.5 yards per game. Plus, these numbers were with Taylor in the lineup. If Taylor is out, or even limited, the likelihood of quick, short passes to Dulin become more likely.
LONGSHOT PROP: Albert Okwuegbunam Anytime TD Scorer (+450 DK). It’s been a very slow start for Okwuegbunam, who’s only registered six catches for 45 yards on the season. He and Russell Wilson are not on the same page yet. Luckily, tight ends have done well against the Colts through four games. Opposing tight ends have scored a TD in three out four games against Indy. His 6-5, 258-pound frame should give the Colts problems in the redzone.
FUN SIX-LEG SAME GAME PARLAY (+900 DK):
- Wilson OVER 169.5 Pass Yds
- Jerry Jeudy OVER 44.5 Rec Yds
- Courtland Sutton OVER 49.5 Rec Yds
- Dulin 9+ Rec Yards
- Parris Campbell 14+ Rec Yds
- UNDER 47.5 Point Total
The game script is setting up for both teams to throw ball in order to win. If that’s the case, Wilson, who’s cleared 170 passing yards in every game this season, will need to target Jeudy and Sutton often to get it down. Sutton has cleared 50 yards in all four games while Jeudy has only reached 45 yards in two games. Dulin and Campbell have low totals that they could cover with one reception. Lastly, points will be tough to come by. However, it’s nice to take a four-point buffer from the listed game total.
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