Chargers (-3) at Texans
Despite playing on the road, the Chargers should be favored by more in this matchup. Not only has L.A.’s defense been fantastic all season long, but their offense has come alive over the past three weeks, averaging 36 points per game. The Chargers have also been historically good at protecting the football in 2024. They have only committed 9 turnovers throughout the whole season—the 3rd-fewest in NFL history.
Houston is 1-5 this season against teams with a winning record, scoring an average of just 16 points in those games. CJ Stroud’s play has regressed from last season and so has the team around him. Stroud has taken 52 sacks this season—only Caleb Williams was sacked more times. The Chargers are the better team in all areas.
Chargers win 24-17
Steelers (+9.5) at Ravens
Pittsburgh is going through a serious rough patch at the absolute worst time possible. The Steelers have lost four consecutive games and have looked inept offensively in each contest. It is further bad news for them that the Ravens’ defense has improved greatly during their four-game winning streak.
Baltimore has been clicking on both sides of the ball since their Week 14 bye. Even with the absence of Zay Flowers due to a knee injury, the combination of Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Mark Andrews will be enough for the Ravens to overwhelm the Steelers.
Ravens win 27-20
Broncos at Bills (-8.5)
Denver has had a tremendous season so far, but this game will be a challenge that they are not equipped to handle. Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in 9 of the last 10 games in which their starters played. They have also been absolutely unstoppable at home, finishing the regular season with a perfect 8-0 record at Highmark Stadium.
The Broncos were a poor road team over the last couple of months of the season, going 1-4 in their last five games away from home. Buffalo comes into this game rested and healthy, aside from already being the better team.
Bills win 34-20
Packers at Eagles (-5)
This matchup is a worst-case scenario for the Packers, who would have much rather have played the Buccaneers or the Rams. Matchup aside, Green Bay suffered several key injuries in their regular-season finale against the Chicago Bears. Christian Watson tore his ACL, ending his season and likely putting next season in jeopardy. Jordan Love also left the game with an elbow injury—one that has limited him in practice this week and given him a questionable designation for Sunday’s game. Even if Love is able to go, he probably won’t be playing at 100 percent.
The Eagles rested their starters last week, giving them an added advantage in this matchup against a Packers’ team that is tired and banged up. Jalen Hurts was a full participant in practice on Thursday after missing Philadelphia’s last two regular season games with a concussion, making it likely that he will suit up on Sunday afternoon. Overall, the Eagles are the healthier team and the better team altogether.
Eagles win 30-24
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3)
The Buccaneers have been red hot since their Week 11 bye week, winning six of their last seven games and averaging almost 32 points per game during that stretch. Their defense has also greatly improved after struggling early in the season, allowing just 17 points per game since Week 12.
On the other hand, Washington’s five-game winning streak has come against backup quarterbacks and inexperienced rookies, and four of those five wins came down to the very end. Playing on the road against a Buccaneers’ team that has a significant advantage in playoff experience will be too much of a challenge for the Commanders and their rookie quarterback.
Buccaneers win 33-27
Vikings (-2.5) at Rams
Sam Darnold and the Vikings played poorly in their 31-9 loss to the Lions in Week 18. Don’t let that distract you from the fact that this team still managed to win 14 games in the regular season. Minnesota ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in both scoring offense and scoring defense, joining the likes of Detroit, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Denver.
Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense has been poor throughout the season. L.A.’s defense ranks 26th in yards per game (353.1) and 26th in yards per play (5.89). Their secondary is in serious danger of being torched by Minnesota’s elite group of receivers. Look for Darnold and the Vikings to have a bounce-back performance from last week’s disappointment and earn their first playoff win in five years.
Vikings win 27-24
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