If you go back just a decade ago, drafting an NFL quarterback in the top ten picks was a flashy headline, but it wasn’t something that every team was gong after. In 2014, only three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round, 2015 there were two, and in 2013, wait for it, there was only one quarterback picked up in the first round. Only a few of those were Top 10 picks.
Compare that to the last few years where there have been six quarterbacks taken in the first ten picks, with at least another two or three expected this year, and you can see that the trend in the NFL is shifting to becoming a competitiion of who can get the best quarterback first, and who can get lucky enough to actually get their future star.
Oddly, despite this new trend, the analytics suggest that this is a terrible idea.
Every Pick is a Risk, But a QB is a Bigger Risk
You very rarely hear about an OT or WR who gets drafted in the first ten picks of the NFL Draft and ends up being a bust. Some of that may have to deal with the news and media attention QB’s get vs other positions, but here are the WR’s picked up in the first ten picks since 2021.
- Ja’Maar Chase
- DeVonta Smith
- Jaylen Waddle
- Drake London
- Garrett Wilson
Sure, not all of them have played at the same elite level, but none of these picks would be considered to be a bust. Compare that to the NFL quarterbacks drafted in the same time period as Top 10 picks
- Trevor Lawrence
- Zach Wilson
- Trey Lance
- Bryce Young
- C.J. Stroud
- Anthony Richardson
There are at least two full-scale busts, with Anthony Richardson not looking great, and the verdict is still out about Bryce Young. We know that Lawrence is good, and Stroud had a strong rookie campaign. In other words, since 2021, the Top 10 picks for QB’s are hitting at 50% at best, but could very easily drop down to 33%.
21 Quarterbacks Were Taken in 2021-22 NFL Drafts, 2 of Them Start Today
The verdict is still out in regards to the success of the 2023 NFL Draft (althouh CJ Stroud seems promising), but in total there were 21 quarterbacks who were taken in the 2021 and 2022 NFL Drafts. Two, yes only two of them are expected to start next year with Trevor Lawrence with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Brock Purdy with San Francisco, who ironically was the final pick in the 2022 draft.
Every other quarterback is not expected to start next year. This list includes Zach Wilson, Desmond Ridder, Mac Jones, and Justin Fields, among many others.
Many of quarterbacks were fought over, traded up for, and their teams risked everything to get them. Yet again, only 9.5% of them have made it two or three full seasons in the league and remain the starter.
Out of the 19 QBs taken from 2021-2022 in the NFL Draft
Only Trevor Lawrence & Brock Purdy are expected to start Week 1 🤯
(via NFLResearch, r/nfl) pic.twitter.com/ZFQqdu2Qt4
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) March 20, 2024
Why Do Teams Keep Going After Quarterbacks?
If we look historically at the best quarterbacks of all time, not all of them were top ten picks. Tom Brady was a late round pick, Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant, Patrick Mahomes was the 10th overall pick, and Aaron Rodgers fell all the way to 24. The evidence is out there that some of the best quarterbacks aren’t necessarily a Top 5 pick, yet teams are throwing everything to get them. The question has to to be why? The answer comes down to two possible reasons.
- Pressure. If a coach and GM go afer a highly rated quarterback, and he ends up being a bust, fans for some reason tend to blame the player more than the management. For example, people aren’t pointing fingers at Robert Saleh for the lack of development on Zach Wilson, they blame Wilson. On the flip side, if a team picks up an defensive tackle and a future Hall-of-Fame QB gets picked up a few picks later, the blame goes to ownership and coaching. In other words, picking a QB is the safe option, but maybe not the smart option.
- A homerun QB can turn a team around faster than any other player. Coaches know that their time to get a team to wins is more limited than ever before. There was a time where a coach would have four to five seasons to get his team where he wanted it before fans started calling for his job. Today, that time frame is only two years, or sometimes even less. A wide receiver or corner back may be phenominal, but they aren’t ever going to change a team the way that an effective QB can. For some coaches and GM’s who know this may be their last seaso, they need to swing for a grandslam, even if means a high chance of being a strikeout.
Conclusion
This year, there is little doubt that the trend will continue as teams will fight to get a QB drafted as early as possible. There area already reports of some teams doing all they can to trade up their picks in the draft in hopes of not getting the first or even second quarterback, but the third, or even possibly the fourth quarterback.
Granted, this QB class shows some promsie, similiar to the class of 2020 that had quite a few players who are still successful, but again, with the recent history, one has to wonder if this pattern of seeking a QB at all costs is just a trend, or if it is something that will continue longterm.
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