When the new College Football Playoff Format came out yesterday, one of the immediate reactions was the outcry that no matter what Notre Dame does, they can’t be a top-four seed. What’s being missed, however, is every other way that it is actually benefiting the Fighting Irish.
One has to remember that being in the Top Four is very difficult. Not only does a team have to win their conference, they have to be still be ranked higher than one of the other conference champions. Most teams (eight) who make the playoff won’t be in the top four anyway. So most of the time, Notre Dame wouldn’t be going for a Top Four seed anyway, they’d be somewhere in the 6-12 range. And in that range, they benefit greatly.
Ability to Move Up in the Rankings Without Playing a Game
Let’s say that coming into Conference Championship, Notre Dame is sitting at number nine in the rankings, and two of the teams ahead of them lose. Now, Notre Dame sits at seven in the rankings and gets to host a Playoff game without really having to do anything.
There is a scenario where Notre Dame gets bumped out of an at-large spot if a Conference Champion comes from outside the Top 12, and the team they beat was ranked high enough not to fall out of the Top 12, but that is a very unlikely scenario.
In most years, Notre Dame not playing a Playoff Game will help out their rankings, not hurt them.
Extra Week of Rest
The part of the discussion that often gets overlooked is that only 33% of the Playoff teams even make the top four anyway. Most teams are outside the top four and must play a first-round game anyway. For Notre Dame, this is worth it.
While many teams will be going from rivalry weekend to conference championship weekend to a first round in the Playoffs, Notre Dame gets to normally a pretty easy final regular season game (Stanford, Syracuse, or off completely), a bye week while everyone else plays in their Conference Championship, and then a first-round game. For Notre Dame, this extra week off to get healthy may be more valuable than the risk of playing in a Conference Championship game.
Plenty of Motivation for Notre Dame
This goes hand-in-hand with the last point, but Notre Dame, going into the first round, will be more than likely playing a team that just lost a Conference Championship the week before. In all likelihood, the seven at-large spots with Notre Dame in the mix would consist of:
- G5 Champion
- SEC Runner-Up
- Big 12 Runner-Up
- Big 10 Runner-Up
- ACC Runner-Up
- Notre Dame
- SEC/Big 10 3rd place team
This would be great news for Notre Dame as they would be fresh, and ready to take on a team that likely just suffered one of their first losses of the season the week before. And again, since they are coming off a loss, there is a good chance that Notre Dame will jump them in the rankings and host them for that game. For the team they are playing, they are in a mental state of missing a Top Four seed, and now having to go on the road to play a fresh Notre Dame team.
I like the Fighting Irish’s chances in that scenario.
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