The Minnesota Gophers (7-4) travel to Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers (6-5) at Camp Randall at 3:30 pm (EST). Wisconsin is a 3.0-point favorite and are given a 53.6% chance of winning according to ESPN’s FPI. The two teams will battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe on Saturday. Last year the Gophers defeated Wisconsin 23-13, not only keeping them out of the Big 10 championship but reclaiming the axe once again. With that, let’s take a look at Minnesota vs. Wisconsin.
Minnesota
The Minnestoa Gophers are coming off a tough 13-10 loss to Iowa. It is the eighth straight year Minnesota has fallen to Iowa. The Gophers now look to end their season on a high note and take on their arch rival Wisconsin and keep the axe for another year. A win for the Gophers gets them to 8-4 and on track for back-to-back 9-4 seasons. A loss drops them to 7-5 and likely a low end bowl along with losing the axe (losing three rivlry trophies this year).
What To Watch
Mohamed Ibrahim has two games to go to break the Gophers all-time rushing record. So far, he has 4,527 yards in his career. Ibrahim needs 127 yards to break Darrell Thompson’s record of 4,654. Oh, and he’s done this while missing a game this year (against Purdue) and all of last season. So, on Saturday Mo has a great chance to break another record and go down in Gopher history as one of if not the greatest running back to ever play at the University of Minnesota. He is also going to keep his 100-yard game rushing streak alive; currently at 18 games.
Last week Ibrahim closed the gap on Thompson by racking up a career high 263 yards and a touchdown against a good Iowa defense. This week he looks to go off again, against a Badger defense that gives up 295.4 yards per game with 191.6 passing and 103.7 rushing. No one this year could stop Ibrahim, not Iowa, Illinois, not even Penn State. The only consistent thing about the Gophers this year is Ibrahim, and he’ll do it again Saturday in Madison.
Biggest Question
The biggest question I have is can the Gophers pass the ball? When Mo goes off for 263 yards, or when the team as a whole rushes for 300 yards, you don’t need to pass. In the end though, you’ve got to throw the ball to win games, and last week was no exception. Whoever is in at quarterback, P.J. and Ciarrocca will need to find a way to consistently call passing plays.
Why? By doing so, it will open up the run game even more. This is why the game went south last week. This is what I want to see, them passing the ball. It doesn’t need to be 30-40 times a game, just get it to where you aren’t running it 10 straight times and it leads to a fumble or pass only when it is completely obvious. Just find a way at the end of the season to show a little balance.
Wisconsin
The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off of a close 15-14 win over Nebraska. The Badgers look to end their season strong, and there is no better way than reclaiming Paul Bunyan’s axe. The Badgers have had a rough season that saw the firing of their head coach Paul Chryst. Now the Badgers with a win would get to 7-5 with a shot at a decent bowl and get the axe back from the Gophers. A loss would drop the Badgers to 6-6 and on the bottom end of the bowl spectrum. It would also be two straight years without the axe in Madison.
What To Watch
What I’ll be watching is how Wisconsin’s offense handles the Gophers defense. Minnesota’s defense has been great all year. The Gophers allow 13.1 points per game with 274.5 yards of total offense with 172.1 passing and 102.5 rushing. Last week they gave up 221 yards passing and 59 yards rushing to Iowa. Teams do not run the ball well on the Gophers, but have been able to pass somewhat decently against them.
This season the Badgers have averaged 27.5 points per game with 365.4 yards per game with 189.4 passing and 176.0 rushing. The Gophers’ defense has been great the last four weeks allowing just 7.3 points per game. It will not be any easy task for Graham Mertz and the Badger offense. They’ll have to find ways to move the ball consistently on a Joe Rossi lead defense that is hard to do much against. If Mertz and running back Braelon Allen can find ways to make plays, it’ll go a long way in helping Wisconsin win the game. If they struggle like they did against Iowa (whose defense is similar to Minnesota’s in dominance) it could be a long afternoon.
Biggest Question
Can the Badgers shut down the Gophers offense like Iowa did? Now, did Iowa really shut down the Gophers’ offense? Kind of. Look, Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for 263 yards and the Gophers only scored ten points. That’s pretty close to shutting down a team who had one player completely dominate your defense. The Gophers racked up 399 yards of total offense with 87 yards passing and 312 rushing.
If Wisconsin can find a way to keep Ibrahim at the low 100 mark, it should lead to a victory as the Gophers have yet to find a way to pass the ball effectively and consistently. The Badgers this season allow 295.4 yards of total offense (191.6 passing and 103.7 rushing). Keeping Ibrahim in check is how you beat the Gophers. Morgan and/or Kaliakmanis have yet to prove they can come out and torch anyone.
Morgan in the past has been able to and Kaliakmanis hasn’t really been able to prove he is the deep threat people thought he was going to be (though he is just a freshman). In the end, the Badgers should be able to limit the Gophers passing game and it’ll all come down to how big of a game Mohamed Ibrahim has.
Bold Prediction
My bold prediction is that Mohamed Ibrahim will break the University of Minnesota’s all-time rushing record. Now, given that he has 127 yards to go, it isn’t really that much of a bold prediction. Still, I’m going with it because it’s a big record, a big deal, and the end of the season (outside of bowl games). Not to mention, Ibrahim is coming back from an achilles injury he suffered last year.
In his return from that injury, he has had the best season of his career by far. He has rushed for close to 400 more yards and four more touchdowns at the moment. Anyway, Mo is going to break Thompson’s record this year. It only depends on whether it’s Saturday or in their bowl game and for me he gets it done in Madison.
Betting
The following betting lines are according to ESPN’s Pick Center.
Spread:
- Minnesota: +3.0
- Wisconsin: -3.0
Money Line:
- Minnesota: +140
- Wisconsin: -160
Over/Under: 36
Where To Watch
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin will air on ESPN at 3:30 pm (EST). Commentating the game will be Brian Custer (play-by-play), Dustin Fox (analyst), and Lauren Sisler (sideline). You can watch the game on the ESPN app or on their website (you will need to have a TV provider to watch). Streaming Services that have ESPN are fuboTV, Youtube TV, Sling, Hulu (with live TV), and DirecTV Stream. Unfortunately a subscription to ESPN+ does not include the following channels (ESPN, ESPN 2, and ESPNU)
Prediction
This will be a tough battle for Paul Bunyan’s axe. Neither team has shown they are great, let alone be consistently good this year. Both defenses will be good, but the offenses will be able to move the ball off and on throughout the entire game. Mohamed Ibrahim will break the Gophers all-time rushing record in the third quarter and tack on a pair of touchdowns.
The Gophers will get a lead early in the second half and be able to grind the ball and run the clock out. In the end, Mertz and Badgers won’t be able to come back on the Gophers and it’ll be two in a row for the Gophers who keep the axe in Minneapolis for another year. Minnesota wins 27-23.
