Michigan Football won the National Championship this past season at a high cost. As Thanos said in the Avengers Game movie, it cost “Everything”. It cost their coach, almost every single one of their starters, and their rival Ohio State seemingly getting every single big-name transfer in the country.
Despite this, Fan Duel, one the most respected and used sporting settings apps in the country, has Michigan as a 10.5-win team in the regular season, or in other words, a 50% that they will go 11-1 or better. At first glance, this may seem a bit high considering all they lost, but things aren’t always as obvious as they seem.
Michigan’s Depth and Incoming Help
Yes, Michigan lost a lot of players to the NFL Draft and some to the transfer portal, but their players are still really good, and Michigan was so dominant in 2023 that many of the remaining players got significant playing time last year. In 10 of their 12 regular season games, Michigan won by at least two scores, with nine of those games being by at least three scores.
Additionally, Michigan hasn’t been able to have players transfer in yet, or at least not big-name players. There are surely many players sitting at other P4 schools waiting for the transfer portal to reopen in April. When it does, don’t be shocked to see multiple 4-star and even 5-star players transfer to Ann Arbor.
Sherrone Moore Already Has Shown His Sideline Ability
Last year, Jim Harbaugh was suspended from coaching on the sidelines for a total of six games. During these stretches, Sherrone Moore was elevated to call the plays and essentially be an interim head coach. These games included games against Ohio State and Penn State.
The one question is how Moore will be able to run an offseason team under his own system. Moore has never been an official head coach so only time will tell how effective he is in that position full-time.
A Very Difficult Schedule
Now, for a reason, they may not reach 11 wins. If you could draw up the most difficult schedule possible for Big 10 play, Michigan just about has it. USC, Washington, Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State are the five best teams in the Big 10, along with Michigan. The Wolverines play four of these top five teams, including Ohio State on the road.
Additionally, Michigan hosts Texas, which will be looking to send a strong message. And while playing at home may be an advantage for the Wolverines, the Longhorns are very comfortable going on the road and getting a big win. Last year, they traveled to Tuscaloosa and took down Alabama.
On the bright side, outside of those very difficult five games, it is tough to see Michigan losing any other game. They will likely be 20+ point favorites in every other nonconference and conference game. Essentially, it comes down to whether Michigan can go 4-1 or better in those five tough games.
Conclusion
10.5 as the line for wins seems a bit high for all that Michigan lost; however, at the same time, it’s easy to see why 9.5 wins would be a little too low, at least for betters. This may be the rare case where putting a solid win total set at 10 may have been the best option, although that would put the risk of many pushes being paid out at very high risk.
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