For 16 consecutive non-COVID seasons —from 2006 through 2022, excluding 2020 —at least one Mid-American Conference program upset a Big Ten team. The conference has thoroughly embraced its positioning in the greater hierarchy of college football and relishes in the chance to upset its Power 4 brethren.
The two conferences, traditionally, share a lot of ground. While they don’t often directly compete for recruits, there is a lot of familiarity between the two. As of the end of 2023 (ie, without the seven MAC vs. USC/Washington/UCLA/Oregon), the two conferences have faced off 376 times and the Big Ten owns a commanding 318-56-2 record.
This year, there are nine MAC vs. Big Ten matchups. How many MAC teams have legitimate shots at upsetting their Big Ten counterparts?
Will a MAC Team #RaiseTheFlag Over the Big Ten in 2024?
Since 2006, the MAC has won 34 games over the Big Ten:
*Temple was a football-only member from 2007-2012
- 2006: Ohio beat Illinois, 20-17
- 2007: Bowling Green beat Minnesota, 32-31; Western Michigan beat Iowa, 28-19
- 2008: Toledo beat Michigan, 13-10; Western Michigan beat Illinois, 23-17; Western Michigan beat Indiana, 37-34; Ball State beat Indiana, 42-20
- 2009: Central Michigan beat Michigan State, 29-27; Northern Illinois beat Purdue, 28-21
- 2010: Toledo beat Purdue, 31-20; Northern Illinois beat Minnesota, 34-23
- 2011: Ball State beat Indiana, 27-20; Temple beat Maryland, 38-7
- 2012: Ball State beat Indiana, 41-39; Kent State beat Rutgers, 35-23; Ohio beat Penn State, 24-14; Central Michigan beat Iowa, 32-31
- 2013: Northern Illinois beat Purdue, 55-24; Northern Illinois beat Iowa, 30-27
- 2014: Bowling Green beat Indiana, 45-42; Central Michigan beat Purdue, 38-17; Northern Illinois beat Northwestern, 23-15
- 2015: Bowling Green beat Purdue, 35-28; Bowling Green beat Maryland, 48-27
- 2016: Western Michigan beat Northwestern, 22-21; Western Michigan beat Illinois, 34-10
- 2017: Northern Illinois beat Nebraska, 21-17; Eastern Michigan beat Rutgers, 16-13
- 2018: Akron beat Northwestern, 39-34; Buffalo beat Rutgers, 42-13; Eastern Michigan beat Purdue, 20-19
- 2019: Eastern Michigan beat Illinois, 34-31
- 2020: COVID
- 2021: Bowling Green beat Minnesota, 14-10
- 2022: Miami (OH) beat Northwestern, 17-14
Last year, the MAC lost all nine chances at continuing the trend. Bowling Green had the last crack after drawing a 5-7 Minnesota in the Quick Lane Bowl but fell, 30-24.
Yeah…Probably Not
The problem with MAC programs facing off against the Big Ten is they often face off against some of the nation’s best. This year, there are a few matchups that it would take more than divine intervention for an upset.
In Week 1, Akron travels to Ohio State. Despite only being 124 miles apart, these two programs have only faced off nine times in all of history. Ohio State owns an 8-1 record with the lone Akron victory coming during the Grover Cleveland administration (1894). The last time Ohio State lost to an in-state school, Oberlin College (now D-III) beat the Buckeyes, 7-6 in 1921.
The Buckeyes are 50.5-point favorites in this one.
In Week 2, Bowling Green travels to Penn State and then it’s Western Michigan’s team to face Ohio State. Bowling Green and Penn State have faced off just twice in the history of their programs and the Nittany Lions won both. This will be the first time the two face off since 1998. Penn State, while it has only won the Big Ten once since 2008, is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the expanded College Football Playoff. Even if they end up with two losses, they should be in.
This will be the second time Ohio State and Western Michigan will face off. In the previous matchup, the Broncos gave the Buckeyes all they could handle but fell, 38-12 in 2015. It’ll likely be just as one-sided this year as OSU is expected to not only contend for the Big Ten but the CFP National Championship as a whole.
Still a Tall Order
Not every matchup is a lost cause but there will need to be a lot of things to go right for a MAC over Big Ten result.
In Week 1, Western Michigan gets to travel to Wisconsin. the Badgers own a 4-1 record over the Broncos with the lone WMU victory coming in 1988. This game is at Wisconsin, just like four of the previous five. The last time these two faced off, however, was when WMU crashed the NY6 party in 2016. They won the MAC with an unblemished 13-0 mark and nearly beat Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl.
This year, there is still a chance the Broncos upset the Badgers, but it’ll be tough. Playing at Wisconsin is always tough and Luke Fickell will have his team ready to go.
Yet another MAC team with multiple Big Ten foes on the schedule, Akron gets to travel to Rutgers in Week 2. The two will face off for just the second time in history as Rutgers won the only other meeting, 20-17 in 1990. Rutgers has been one of the worst programs in all of college football for a while now, as evidenced by the fact that their name is on the above list multiple times. This year, however, Greg Schiano might be cooking something up. The Scarlet Knights are likely bowl-bound and it will take a massive effort by the Zips to upset Rutgers.
Finally, Eastern Michigan’s Week 2 bout with last year’s CFP National Championship losers has plenty of potential to be in either this level or the “Yeah…Probably Not” level. This will be the first time these two face off and Washington is looking different from last year. They lost quite a bit to the NFL and transfer portal thanks to Kalen DeBoer jumping ship to Alabama. However, they are still a legit team.
Jedd Fisch has won with less talent at Arizona. The Huskies will be good, so EMU will have to take advantage of every opportunity.
Best Bets
If you’re a betting person, there are really only two matchups worth wagering any amount of money.
The lesser of the two is when Central Michigan plays at Illinois. This will be the first time these two face off and it’s anyone’s game. Illinois narrowly beat Toledo last year in a game the Rockets thoroughly choked away. They’re beatable by a MAC program and Central Michigan will have to have a great game from mobile quarterback Bert Emanuel to upset the Fighting Illini in Champaign.
The more likely of the two pits the MAC favorite Miami (OH) Redhawks against the temporarily homeless Northwestern Wildcats. In a battle of the nerds, there’s a rarity: Miami owns a winning record over Northwestern, 7-3. These two faced off in 2022 and Miami (OH) went to Northwestern and came out victorious.
The Wildcats are under new leadership after the unceremonious firing of long-time coach Pat Fitzgerald. They scraped and clawed their way through 2023 and ended up bowl-eligible. Miami (OH) is expected to repeat as MAC Champions as they got back an overwhelming amount of players from last year. Plain and simple, there is only one MAC-over-Big Ten result that’s to happen this year, it’ll be Miami (OH) over Northwestern.
