History is a powerful tool in shaping the minds of people. And the Kansas City Chiefs are providing a perfect example of it.
No team in NFL history has won three Super Bowl titles in a row. The Chiefs captured the Super Bowl title in 2022 and 2023. And this year, they have built the best record in football at 15-1. They have secured home-field advantage while creating a two-week rest to heal their best players. And they only have to win two games to get to the Super Bowl.
Given the above facts, it makes sense for people to think the Chiefs will make NFL history. Right? Nope. Without scientific proof or a stupid poll, a strong majority of people will not be shocked if the Chiefs lose in the Super Bowl. And they won’t even be stunned if the Chiefs lose in the divisional round.
History is a devouring beast with little empathy
It’s extremely hard to win a Super Bowl. Ask Dan Marino, Barry Sanders, Randy Moss, or Bruce Smith. Those are some of the greatest NFL players of all time. But they walked away without a ring.
And since it’s that hard to win the Super Bowl, imagine trying to have things fall into place two years in a row. The odds shoot up like a Steph Curry 30-foot rainbow 3-pointer.
Now let’s consider what the Chiefs are trying to accomplish. They traveled a charmed road two years ago, barely beating the Bengals on a 45-yard field goal with three seconds left by Harrison Butker in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs needed Butker again — this time with eight seconds to go — to push aside the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
Things got more difficult last year. The Chiefs had to beat the Dolphins at home before needing a missed field goal by Tyler Bass with 1:47 left in the game to hold off the Bills on the road. That sent Kansas City to Baltimore, where the Chiefs held on for a 17-10 win.
The Super Bowl added another layer of difficulty. Butker’s short field goal with three seconds remaining in regulation sent the game to overtime. San Francisco settled for a field goal, and Patrick Mahomes responded with a game-winning three-yard strike to Mecole Hardman.
Winning in the NFL has a short shelf life
Think of all the little things that could have gone wrong in those moments. A false start. Bad snap. Dropped pass. A bad penalty call by an official. The Chiefs have dodged so many season-ending pitfalls over the last two years, it’s hard to imagine they have any more smoke and mirrors remaining in their arsenal.
And that’s why people won’t be surprised. Even the NFL analysts who are picking the Chiefs to win it all won’t be stunned if they don’t. Anybody with half of an NFL mind knows history is an incredibly difficult beast to tame.
Need any more evidence? How about Colin Cowherd reversing course and saying the Chiefs are better this year? The Chiefs probably don’t want Cowherd on their bandwagon as he will likely be wrong. Here’s what Cowherd said, according to a post on YouTube by The Herd with Colin Cowherd.
“The Kansas City team to me is a better offensive version, and a more mature version, of last year,” Cowherd said. “The last nine game for Mahomes: 19 touchdowns, two picks. And here they are the dynasty in the league. It’s a lot like New England, (Bill) Belichick and (Tom) Brady. And they’re flying under the radar. And Kansas City is just winning.”
And therein lies the problem with Cowherd’s analysis. The Chiefs aren’t dynamic. They just win games. That worked last year for the Chiefs. But the vast majority of Super Bowl champions have something dominant about them. Football isn’t a sport where teams can keep creeping up on people. At some point, a bigger, stronger, faster, and meaner team puts its foot in the door and says, “You want this? You gotta take it from us. And you ain’t gettin’ it!”
That’s what will happen to the Chiefs in 2024. It will likely either be the Bills, Ravens, Lions, Eagles, or Packers. But some team will end this Chiefs dynasty.
And almost nobody will be shocked.
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