It’s no secret that the Denver Broncos lack weapons for their rookie quarterback, Bo Nix. Despite that, the Broncos are 7-5, the seventh seed in the AFC, and Nix is second in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. So, what’s the secret behind the Broncos’ offensive success?
Nix isn’t exactly a statistical darling. He ranks below average in most advanced statistics, but the Broncos are averaging their most points per game since their Super Bowl win season in 2015-16. While the Broncos don’t have much invested in their skill players, they have over $42 million invested in their offensive line. So, is that the reason Denver is playing so well?
The Offensive Line
At a glance, the Broncos’ line is putting up great numbers. The Broncos have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL at 19, despite not having their bye week yet. They also allow the sixth-lowest pressure rate per dropback, as Nix is only under fire on 18.2% of his throws. And on top of that, Nix has the seventh-highest average time to throw at 2.97 seconds. On the surface, those look like fantastic numbers, but they can be misleading.
Pressure rates and time to throw can dramatically change based on the quarterback alone. Mobile quarterbacks almost always rank near the top of the league in average time to throw because they can extend time in the pocket, and elite pocket passers typically have lower times to throw and pressure rates because of how quickly they get rid of the ball. Back in September, Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton said,
“I think the sack statistic, by and large, is more a quarterback statistic than an offensive line statistic. There are some quarterbacks that are more difficult to protect for, some that aren’t.”
Advanced Metrics
With basic box score stats, it’s tough to understand how good or bad an offensive line is. So that’s when advanced metrics come in. There really was no way to quantify how good an individual offensive lineman or an entire unit was, so that’s where ESPN stepped in.
In 2019, ESPN used all-22 film and NFL Next Gen Stats to create a metric to measure offensive line play. One of the most telling metrics is the pass block win rate or PBWR. PBWR is defined as the rate an offensive lineman can sustain their block for 2.5 seconds or more. The win rate is listed as a percentage of how often they win. And when it comes to that stat the Broncos’ huge investment seems to be paying off.
Going down the line from left to right, here’s where Denver’s linemen rank in PBWR. Garett Bolles is the eighth-ranked offensive tackle with a 93%, Ben Powers is the fifth-ranked interior lineman with a 97%, Luke Wattenberg is the top-ranked interior lineman with a 98%, Quinn Meinerz is the eleventh-ranked interior lineman with a 96%, and Mike McGlinchey is the seventh-ranked offensive tackle with a 94%. Even Denver’s backup center, Alex Forsyth, is the third-ranked interior lineman also with a 98%. To put it simply, this unit has been elite. Unsurprisingly, Denver’s line ranks first in the NFL in PBWR at 74%.
Nix has had the best pass-blocking line in football. The importance of having a good line over weapons is on full display here, and Sean Payton is famous for valuing line play above all. And he can’t be forgotten in how great the pass protection is, he’s making life for his rookie quarterback easier.
The Sean Payton Effect
Obviously, Denver’s line is playing great, but one stat that stands out is the double-team rate. Double-team rate doesn’t just count double teams with other linemen but also tight ends and running backs. Whether it’s just regular pass protection or chip blocks.
When Denver signed Mike McGlinchey to a 5-year $87.5 million deal, he had the reputation as an elite run blocker and an average pass blocker. Among the top 20 tackles in PBWR, McGlinchey has the highest double-team rate at 41%. Luke Wattenberg was the 171st pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he’s in the top half of interior linemen at a double-team rate of 81%. Payton is finding unique ways to hide the weaknesses on the Broncos line.
On the flip side, Payton is putting immense trust in his other linemen. Quinn Meinerz and Ben Powers are tied for the fifth-lowest double-team rate for the top 20 interior linemen at 66%; both are considered elite pass blockers. Nix’s blindside blocker also has a low double-team rate of 32%.
The Denver Broncos Going Forward
Sean Payton is doing a fantastic job of giving his rookie time to throw in the pocket, and combined with Nix’s athleticism the Broncos’ offense is looking as good as it has since Peyton Manning has been under center. After a rough first month, Nix now looks poised in the pocket and is delivering to a bottom-five skill position unit. In his last ten games he has 20 total touchdowns with just two interceptions.
If this high level passing blocking continues Denver looks primed to snap their eight year playoff drought, and Nix could even bring home some hardware. But even though the award would go to Nix, he has five guys in front of him to thank.
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