Dallas Cowboys: Final 4 Games of Season is one of the Toughest Schedules in the NFL

Dallas Cowboys 10-4 (1st in the NFC East) 2nd in NFL

The Dallas Cowboys have proven, over the previous two weeks, that they’re capable of beating playoff caliber football teams. However, the final four games of the Cowboys schedule will prove to be their toughest challenge thus far. The NFL schedule is never easy, you hear every week that a win is a win, but the Cowboys will have to overcome tough odds and an even tougher stretch of games to steal a division title from the Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s take a look at the final four games for the Cowboys and the ways in which they can break the Birds’ heart.

At Buffalo Bills – Sunday (12/17) 3:25 CST on FOX

Following a contreversial win on the road in Kansas City, the Buffalo Bills are 7-6 and second in the AFC East. The underwhelming Bills have survived a roller coaster season thus far but following a big win at Arrowhead the Bills are starting to heat up. Pro Bowl quarterback Josh Allen has began to once again find his groove, efficiently completing 23 of his 42 passes for 233 yards and a score last week against the Chiefs.

Overall the Bills offense ranks 5th in the NFL averaging 378 yards per game and 26.8 points per game, according to ESPN. The Cowboys, however rank just ahead of the Bills offensively, averaging 381.5 yards per game and 32.4 points per game (highest ppg average in the NFL).

Defensively the Bills are lacking, especially compared to the vaunted Dallas defense. The Bills defense ranks  14th overall defensively with an average of 329 yards per game surrendered and 18.8 ppg. Dallas’ defense ranks 3rd overall with an average of 289.9 yards per game surrendered and 17.9 ppg. Where Dallas excels defensively (sacks and pressure) is where Josh Allen is excellent at combatting. Allen is one of the leagues most effective scrambling quarterbacks not just in a rushing sense but also in a downfield approach, extending time to find open playmakers like WR Stefon Diggs and TE Dawson Knox. Diggs, a perennial pro bowler, has 993 reception yards on 87 receptions for 8 scores.

Overall this matchup is challenging for the Cowboys because of Allen’s mobility, Diggs big play ability, and Buffalo’s weather in December. The Cowboys have found their highest levels of success this season at home in AT&T Stadium. On the road however, the Cowboys have lost all three of their games this season. The weather is expected to be in the low-40’s in Buffalo on Sunday and Bills mafia will be looking to cause chaos for the NFL’s most penalized team (7.5 penalties per game).

At Miami Dolphins – Sunday (12/24) 3:25 CST on FOX

Another road game against the AFC East takes the Cowboys to Hard Rock Stadium to face the division’s leaders. The Dolphins are the Cowboys equivalent in the AFC, currently ranked 2nd overall in the conference. The Dolphins average 32 points per game and 428 yards per game, ranking them 1st overall in the NFL. The main source of their success is their speed, particularly WR Tyreek Hill and RB De’Von Achane. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Dolphins Hill, Achane, and RB Raheem Mostert have 6 out of the top 10 fastest MPHs in the NFL this season.

The Dolphins defense has given up 300 yards per game and 22 points per game, ranking them as one of the NFL’s most average defenses. Where the Dolphins defense excels is in their ability to sack the quarterback. The Fins average a sack on 9.28 percent of defensive snaps. Compare that to the Cowboys sack percentage of 4.26 and you can quickly see how disruptive the Dolphins defense can be.

Early thoughts for handling Hill will most likely focus on CB Stephon Gilmore pairing up with Hill. Gilmore has been the most reliable corner for the Cowboys this season and he shows a keen sense of ability to cover the opposing teams best receiver, evidenced by his complete lock down of Philly phenom AJ Brown this past Sunday. If the Cowboys can manage Hill’s big play ability and score like they’ve been doing, they should be able to handle the Dolphins in what may be the NFL’s highest scoring game of the season.

vs. Detroit Lions – Sat (12/30) 7:15 CST on NBC

The Detroit Lions look a lot different late in the season compared to how they started. The Lions came out of the gate on fire but seem to have stumbled lately, especially defensively. QB Jared Goff has resorted to his familiar average performance and the Lions two punch combination of running backs have slowly been reduced back to an average level as well. However the Detroit offense offers plenty of talent which can have them challenging the Cowboys defense.

Offensively, the Lions rank 7th in points per game with 26.2 and 3rd in yards with 330 per game. The Lions have an impressive pair of running backs in David Montgomery (770 rush yards) and Jaymyr Gibbs (692 rush yards) that will keep the Cowboys rush defense (13th in the NFL) on their heels. Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has continued to showcase pro bowl abilities this season, hauling in 1,003 receiving yards and 6 scores.

Defensively the Lions rank near the bottom of the league in points per game with 24.2 surrendered. They also rank 16th in yards per game, giving up 323.5. The bright spot of the Detroit defense is second year edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and rookie LB Jack Campbell. Hutchinson has 6.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pick this year but he also draws some of the most double-teams in the NFL. Campbell is second on the team in tackles with 41 and is well on his way to earning all rookie team honors.

The Cowboys return home for the Lions game and more importantly it’s on Sunday Night Football, where the Cowboys always seem to find success. The Lions will be regrouping in the weeks following their Bears loss this past weekend and head coach Dan Campbell will have his squad ready for a playoff push come week 17.

At Washington Commanders – (Time TBD)

Finally a breather before the playoff grind right? Although the Washington Commanders are one of the leagues worst performing teams they’ll always be on their best for a home game against their hated rivals. Cowboys/Commanders games never seem to go how ‘experts’ think they will.

Offensively the Commanders are 23rd in points per game (20.1) and 16th in yards per game (336.2). Quarterback Sam Howell has amassed an impressive 3,466 passing yards and 18 touchdowns. Wideout Terry McLaurin leads the Washington receiving corps with 694 yards on 60 receptions. The Commanders have the second worst turnover margin in the league (-0.8) and they also tend to give up pressure to zero pressure defensive stunts, meaning they let other teams sack their QB without blitzing, something the Cowboys will thrive on.

The Commanders have a talented defense led by corner Kendall Fuller. They also have a legitimate pass rush threat up front with DT Jonathan Allen and edge rusher Montez Sweat. Where the Commanders struggle is in the passing game. The Commanders give up 266 pass yards per game, finding them ranked last in the league.

If…

If the Cowboys can find a way to win on the road and get back home against the Lions with a 2-0 record they’ll have a legitimate chance at winning the division. The Eagles have the Seahawks, Giants x2, and the Cardinals left on their schedule. If both the Eagles and Cowboys win out, the Eagles would claim the division crown. But, the Cowboys have to focus on the remainder of their business because it’s going to be a grind.