As college football nears the halfway point of the season, there have been plenty of surprises, with teams playing better than expected (Indiana, Iowa State, and BYU, to name a few) and teams that have not met the preseason hype (I’m looking at you, Florida State and Oklahoma State).
Despite this, one thing has not changed, or at least not much: SEC teams are still ranked extremely high.
SEC Carries So Much Weight
Undoubtedly, the SEC is the best conference in the country. You have to be crazy to believe otherwise. Because of this, there seems to be some grace given to the top SEC teams who lose a game or two. This was evident last week when both Tennessee and Alabama lost to unranked teams (and Vanderbilt and Arkansas at that).
One would believe that a loss to a team like Vanderbilt or Arkansas this early in the season would result in a serious drop in the rankings, yet Alabama only dropped six spots and Tennessee fell only four. Is this regular? Let’s take a deeper look.
A Look at Non-SEC Schools Losing Games
Results have to be compared in similar weeks for a fair comparison. This is because a loss early on in the season has a much heavier consequence, while losses late in the season don’t tend to carry the same kind of impact. For this deep dive, every ranked team that lost to an unranked team will be looked at over the past three weeks.
2024
- No. 10 Michigan loses to Washington – Drops 14 spots (BIG 10)
- No. 1 Alabama loses to Vanderbilt – Drops 6 spots (SEC)
- No. 4 Tennessee loses to Arkansas – Drops 4 spots (SEC)
- No. 11 USC loses to Minnesota – Drops out of Top 25, first team out of Top 25
- No. 22 Lousiville loses to SMU – Drops out of Top 25 and NOT receiving any votes
- No. 13 Kansas State loses to BYU – Drops 13 spots
These rankings show that the average SEC drop is only five spots, while the non-SEC schools average around 14 spots. Additionally, the non-SEC teams’ losses have been to teams much better than Vanderbilt, yet that doesn’t seem to matter.
Also worth noting is that when SEC schools lose to other ranked SEC schools, the drop is minimal, while when non-SEC schools lose to other ranked teams, the drop is drastic. For example, when Oklahoma State lost to Utah, the Cowboys dropped six spots, while Georgia only dropped three when they lost to Utah.
The SEC College Football Wall is Already Built
Earlier, before the season started, I correctly projected that the SEC had such influence and power over the minds of voters that the SEC had a wall built up that would be tough to bring down. What I mean by that is the SEC had so many teams in the Top 20 at the beginning of the season that even when teams lose, whether to each other or teams outside the Top 25, the rankings don’t really change. The teams may change, but the number of SEC teams in the rankings doesn’t.
When the season started, nine SEC teams ranked in the Top 20, including four of the top six. Today, there are eight teams in the Top 20 (plus Missouri at No. 21).
When the season started, the SEC and Big 10 dominated the CFP projection rankings, taking up all of the at-large spots. Today, that still hasn’t changed despite teams like BYU, Iowa State, and Clemson all playing well and having better resumes.
So, can this SEC wall be taken down? That depends on the CFP Playoff Committee.
CFP Playoff Committee is Independent of AP Rankings
It will be very interesting to see if the CFP Committee looks more at resumes or if the SEC-biased media influences them. It’s hard to imagine that the SEC and the coverage they get on all of the networks won’t affect how the voters view teams, but they have surprised us before.