It feels like a lifetime ago that reports were being leaked that Texas and Oklahoma would leave the Big 12 for the SEC and shake up the entire college football landscape. Since then, a lot has happened, and almost no team or conference has been unaffected.
Here is the complete recap of how we got to where we are today.
Texas and Oklahoma Got Everything Started
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It’s easy to point a finger at Texas and Oklahoma (particularly Texas) and blame them for all the change. Of course, these claims have some truth, but one must wonder if change was inevitable. If Texas and Oklahoma never got out in front, the Big 10 may still have taken a few Pac-12 teams. From there, maybe the Pac 12 picks up the Longhorns and Sooners, and we are talking about the Big 12 collapsing, not the Pac 12.
Of course, we never know what would have happened; we only know what did happen. Here is a quick summary of everything.
In June/July 2021, the news broke that Texas and Oklahoma would leave the Big 12 for the SEC. At this moment, the Big 12 appeared to be on very shaky ground, and the media started to wonder if the Pac-12 and Big 10 would start to pursue other Big 12 teams.
Instead, the Big 12 responded quickly and added four of the best G5 schools, including three AAC schools in Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF, while also going west and picking up Independent BYU. The move seemed to save the Big 12 and allow the conference to continue functioning. Perhaps the most important thing they did was get these four schools into the conference before Texas and Oklahoma left, making them feel like part of the conference for an entire year, rather than feeling like the Big 12 was picking up G5 schools after they left.
When Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF announced they were leaving the AAC, the American Conference essentially promoted multiple teams from the CUSA and other conferences to join the AAC to continue to be viewed as the strongest Group of Five conference.
Year of Speculation
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For nearly a year, there were rumors, stories, and speculation about what will happen next. Yet, nothing has happened.
Then, like the news of Oklahoma and Texas leaving for the SEC, UCLA and USC announced they would also be leaving, but for the Big 10. This happened in late June 2022. Up to this point, all of the realignment made sense, geographically, at least. Sure, UCF in the Big 12 felt odd, but it wasn’t like having UCLA (about as Southwest as you can get in the U.S.) traveling to play Rutgers (about as Northeast as you can get).
This opened up a whole new world of possibilities and put the focus on the Pac-12 and Big 12. With the Big 10 making it feel like any conference could expand anywhere now, it made the Big 12 and Pac-12 a very interesting rivalry. It felt like one would survive and the other die.
But the Big 12 pulled out a miracle.
Big 12 Gets Their Media Deal
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A few months later, in October 2022, everything again changed when the new Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark pulled off the impossible by getting ahead of the Pac-12, meeting with ESPN and Fox, and getting a new media deal. This media deal was a significant pay raise for all of the Big 12 teams, but it also gave them significantly more money than the ACC and, in particular, the Pac-12 were getting.
Teams like Oregon, Washington, Florida State, and Utah did not appreciate the idea that teams like Iowa State, Kansas State, or newly promoted teams would be getting paid more than them. And who could blame them? Utah, which had won two Pac-12 titles and played in two Rose Bowls, was looking at getting paid less than BYU. Florida State, which has a legacy of winning, was (and still is) set to get less than UCF.
That deal suddenly made things very interesting and unstable around college football.
Pac-12 Falls Apart
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Everyone assumed that in the days and weeks after the media deal, the Pac-12 and ACC would be able to re-negotiate their deals, but that didn’t happen. The ACC, in an agreement through 2036, didn’t have interest from ESPN in changing its terms. The Pac-12 wasn’t able to get a good deal, so they started to look at AppleTV and other streaming service options. But neither conference could match the Big 12’s deal.
This led to the next eight months being full speculation until finally, Coach Deion Sanders and Colorado had enough, and they announced their intention to join the Big 12 on July 28th, 2023. At that point, the conference was in complete chaos mode. An emergency meeting was called to try to make a TV deal and add a tenth member to replace Colorado (presumingly San Diego State).
However, ten minutes before the meeting, Washington announced they would leave the conference and join the Big 10. Their main concern was not wanting to be on linear TV. Once the Huskies left, the Ducks followed. The Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah exodus to the Big 12 followed naturally from there.
All of this happened between August 1st – 5th, 2023.
ACC Picks Up Awkward Teams
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This left Stanford, California, Washington State, and Oregon State on the outside looking in. The ACC, now fearing for their demise (FSU and Clemson are trying to get out), reached out and added Cal and Stanford. Then, out of the blue, SMU begged the ACC to join and even said they didn’t need to pay them media rights and that their donors would pay for everything. The ACC wanted to enter the Texas market, and SMU, being the best remaining team in Texas, agreed.
Today, the ACC features 15 teams on the Atlantic Coast, a Texas school, and two teams on the Pacific Coast.
What is the Future of College Football?
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That is the question. Three years ago, nobody thought we would be anywhere near where we are today. Who would have ever thought the Pac-12 would be non-existent (essentially), Cal would be in the ACC, or BYU and UCF would be in the same conference?
The most likely scenario still lies in whether the ACC can stay together. With Florida State and Clemson wanting to leave, one has to wonder if it will be the same scenario as the Pac-12, with Clemson and Florida State leaving first and then other teams leaving for the Big 12 and other conferences.
Out west, it’s still possible that the Pac-12 survives. It will never be what it once was, but Oregon State and Washington State can create a conference with the best remaining G5 schools (Boise State, San Diego State, Tulane, to name a few).
If the G5 gets picked apart again, could the G5 and P4/5 officially split? It seems very likely.
Oh what could have been… 😞 pic.twitter.com/RLBg64g9Vp
— West Coast College Sports Guy (@Pac12fan10) July 1, 2024
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