Would you believe me if I told you that the Chicago Bears have the best record on Over bets so far this season? Despite their poor performance on the field, they are 5-1 with Over bets so far this season.
Why is a team that is struggling to win so much nearly a lock with Over bets? Let’s take a look at some of the key factors for the Chicago Bears.
Turnovers
One of the biggest things that led to Chicago Bears games going over is the turnover frequency.
They have given the ball away 11 times this season. That is the fourth most amount of times in the NFL. It leads to their opponents having more opportunities to put points on the board.
The most notable time this occurred was back in their Week 2 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With just over two minutes to go in that game, Fields lobbed a ball out of his own end zone. Unfortunately, it was intercepted by Tampa Bay and returned for a touchdown.
For people betting the Over, that touchdown gave them the insurance that they needed to cover that point total.
Poor Defense
Another big aspect of this is the fact that the Chicago Bears defense has played poorly this year. They have given up 30+ points in three separate games this season.
Not surprisingly, the Chicago Bears rank 29th in points allowed per game (29.3). It helps explain their poor overall record, considering that five of the bottom six teams in this category have a record of 1-5 or worse.
Where the Bears hurt most here is their passing defense. They allow 267.3 passing yards per game, ranking 29th in the NFL.
This is not all to star quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes. Guys like Jordan Love and Russell Wilson have had big games against this defense.
While this defense has had poor performances, an important note is that they have improved in their last two games. They gave up 20 points and 19 points, respectively, in those two games.
Just Enough Offense
Despite Chicago’s defensive struggles, they have not done too badly offensively. The Bears rank 19th in the NFL in points per game (21.3).
Justin Fields has also had an uptick in offensive production. Through six games, Fields has 11 touchdown passes. Considering he threw 17 touchdowns in the entire 2022 NFL season, he is certainly on pace to surpass this.
He also has 1,201 passing yards through those six games. Last year, he threw 2,242 passing yards.
Admittedly, Fields has regressed significantly when it comes to his rushing numbers. He has just one rushing touchdown this season compared to eight in 2022. Still, the Bears’ offense is showing just enough to go Over in most of these games.
Where Are the Chicago Bears Going?
Will the Chicago Bears continue to go over the point total in their games? Truthfully, it may be difficult to keep this pace up.
The Bears went Over in their first five games of the season. Their Week 6 loss against the Minnesota Vikings was the first time one of their games went Under this entire season.
Next week, they host the Las Vegas Raiders. So far, Raiders games have trended more towards the Under. They are the antithesis of the Bears, going Under in five of their first six games.
At the time of writing, the Over/Under line is sitting at around 37.5 points. After that, they have road games against the Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints.
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