CFP Primer: Every Team Still in the 12 Team Playoff Hunt

The College Football season is coming to a head, every team has 3-4 games remaining and the time has come to start eliminating teams from contention. Programs that already find themselves with three or more losses should be considered eliminated unless unimaginable chaos were to transpire in the remaining weeks. Inevitably whichever teams get selected for the final 12-team bracket will depend heavily on what the committee deems most important.

Does an 11-1 team with a poor strength of schedule make it in over a 10-2 team with two losses to playoff-bound teams? Will momentum be a factor they take into consideration? Would an undefeated team outside of the Power 4 conferences make it in without the automatic bid? All of this is really up to committee discretion, but from here we will look at each remaining contenders’ schedule and cover any important upcoming “elimination” games.

Check out the CFP rankings: Here

Easy Path To the CFP

Oregon: 9-0

The Ducks have been unstoppable so far this season and have already faced all of the tough opponents on their schedule. They have victories over potential playoff teams Ohio State, and Boise State, and boast one of the best passing offenses in the nation with former Oklahoma and UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel at the helm. Oregon’s remaining schedule has Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington, all of which should be considered feisty, but should pose no real threat to the Ducks on their way to the Big Ten Title Game. An undefeated regular season should guarantee them a CFP slot even should they stumble and fail to hoist the Big Ten Championship.

Miami: 9-0

Is this the return of the U? Miami currently has the #1 offense in the nation led by former Incarnate Word and Washington State QB Cam Ward. The Hurricanes do not boast the toughest strength of schedule, currently having only beaten one team in Week 11’s top 25, but should they reach the ACC Championship game undefeated they shouldn’t have anything to worry about. Miami has Georgia Tech, Wake Forrest, and Syracuse still left to get to that point, with only 6-2 Syracuse seeming like any form of real hurdle.

Penn State: 7-1

The team that just lost at home to Ohio State has arguably the third-easiest path to the CFP. The Nittany Lions are probably the team that benefits most from the expansion from four to twelve teams, they seem to always lose one or two games every year and cruise through the rest of their schedule, and this year seems much the same. Despite a loss to Ohio State, Penn State looks to finish the year 11-1 with a remaining schedule of Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland. The committee will be hard-pressed to deny a team a slot whose only loss was to a CFB powerhouse.

Indiana: 9-0

Indiana finds themselves in almost the exact same situation as Penn State, except their game against Ohio State hasn’t been played yet. The Hoosiers have been a media darling after an unexpected nine-game undefeated run to start the season. New Head Coach Curt Cignetti has proven he isn’t just a small school wonder as he continues his impressive rise through the coaching ranks, and transfer QB Kurtis Rourke has his team playing smart, efficient football on offense to pair with a defense that plays with unparalleled hunger. Indiana’s remaining schedule includes Michigan, Ohio State, and Purdue. If the Hoosiers can manage to win 2 out of 3 games, they should find themselves playing playoff football.

For a Deeper look into Indiana Football Check out: This Article 

BYU: 8-0

Brigham Young currently finds themselves as the sole Big 12 team in the CFP top 12 rankings. The path to the playoffs for the cougars seems simple, win the remaining games on the schedule, all of which they should be heavy favorites in, and Win the Big 12 championship game. A loss in the championship game wouldn’t necessarily spell doom for the Cougars’ playoff aspirations as one loss could still net them a spot, but with how the committee is currently projecting the big 12 it seems unlikely for them to keep multiple Big 12 teams in play. Utah, Kansas, Arizona State, and Houston remain in the way for a BYU undefeated march to the championship game, Arizona St being the only opponent with a winning record as of this post.

Win And In

Ohio State: 7-1

The Buckeyes have played one of the toughest schedules this season, having a loss against #1 ranked Oregon and a victory against Penn State. The game against Indiana will go a long way toward determining their season, a win all but guarantees a postseason dance for the Buckeyes, but a loss will put their fate in the hands of the committee. Outside of the Hoosiers, Ohio State still has to play Purdue, Northwestern, and Michigan, and everyone already knows how much the Wolverines want to spoil the Buckeyes season in The Game.

Georgia: 7-1

Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs find themselves in a TIGHT race in the SEC this year, with four teams currently slotted into the top 12 and another three just on the outside looking in. An early stumble against Bama has been recovered well after a big win against Texas, but Georgia has arguably the toughest schedule remaining of all the teams currently in a playoff position. The Bulldogs have back-to-back games against teams playing for their playoff lives, away against Ole Miss and then a home game against Tennessee, winning these would put Georgia in a guaranteed playoff position, but losses to both would completely remove them from contention.  After these two important games the only remaining opponents are Umass and Georgia Tech, both of which should be easy work for this Georgia squad.

For More on the Ole Miss Georgia matchup: Click Here

Texas: 7-1

The Longhorns find themselves in a favorable position to make back-to-back playoff appearances QB Quinn Ewers manning the helm for both seasons. Texas has one major hurdle to overcome if they want to reach the CFP and that comes in the final week of the season. The Longhorns end their season with an away game to face the Texas A&M Aggies and the 12th man. Kyle Field is known for being one of the toughest places to play in college football, and it’s only fitting for the final game of the season to pit two teams with playoff potential against each other.

Tennessee: 7-1

Tennessee is the last of the one-loss SEC teams to have a straightforward path to the CFP.  The Vols can confidently say they control their own destiny, but an away game against the Georgia Bulldogs will ultimately decide if they are true contenders. Even if Tennessee wins that game, it’s important that they stay focused on the games at hand, a very feisty Vandy team remains on their schedule hungry to sow as much chaos as possible to try and carve their own path to the Playoffs. Outside of those games the Volunteers have Miss St and UTEP to round out their schedule.

Notre Dame: 7-1

The Fighting Irish began the season with a rollercoaster of emotions following a road win against Texas A&M and a home loss to Northern Illinois but have since rebounded well and have set themselves up nicely coming into the home stretch of the season. The main barrier between them and the playoffs will be a neutral site game against Army, a win in that game could guarantee the playoffs for either team if both manage to win out. Outside of that blockbuster matchup the Irish have home matches against Florida St and Virginia, before ending their season on the road against a frisky USC team.

Boise State: 7-1

The Outlook for the Broncos is simple, win out, win the conference championship, and you should have the automatic non-Power 4 playoff berth. Normally it would never really be that easy, but when Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty is your RB, making the CFP may really just be that easy.  Their schedule has Nevada, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Oregon State remaining, all of which the Broncos should be favored to win. Their only nightmare scenario could be if Army manages to run the table and make the committee choose between denying an undefeated conference champion or missing out on a Heisman hopeful in playoff action.

Bubble Players and Potential Conference Champion Upsets

Alabama: 6-2 and LSU: 6-2

Alabama just doesn’t seem to disappear in the post Saban era and the LSU Tigers continue to find ways to win close games.  The both find themselves in a position to earn their way to the CFP as a two-loss team if they can win their remaining three SEC matchups. The first test comes in an elimination game pitting the two teams against each other this weekend. Similarly, both teams enter on the bubble and barring upsets, the winner should be in position to have an easy path to the CFP. LSU gets to play the game in Death Valley this year and both teams seem to have issues putting opponents away so finding a favorite will be difficult.

For more on this matchup check out: This Article

SMU: 8-1

The Mustangs find themselves just outside the current CFP projections, but a relatively easy end of season schedule and those above them being pitted against each other have them in what looks to be a good spot. A loss in the ACC championship game could sour all those good vibes though, two losses for the mustangs could be a death knell as it seems unlikely the committee would pick them over many of the other potential two loss teams. In order to make it to that ACC championship game the mustangs will need to get through Boston College, Virginia, and California.

Texas A&M: 7-2

Texas A&M was in a prime position to make a playoff splash to begin the post-Jimbo Fisher era, but a rough outing against South Carolina has the Aggies on the outside looking in with the release of the CFP rankings. The one hope they still have comes in a season finale against Texas and a chance to redeem themselves in the eyes of the committee. A win in that game could be exactly what the Aggies need to make an end of season jump in the rankings and make their playoff debut.

Ole Miss: 7-2

Ole Miss has one opportunity to right the ship and make it into the CFP, that opportunity comes in a home game against Georgia this Saturday. With a loss Lane Kiffin can kiss his playoff hopes goodbye, even with a win he may have to hope that those above him stumble so that he can sneak in. After the Georgia game Ole Miss has Florida and Mississippi State to end the season.

Iowa State: 7-1

Iowa St currently finds themselves in position to face BYU in the Big 12 championship game, and the current conference outlook seems to be the only way a non-BYU team can make it into the CFP. The Cyclones remaining schedule also doesn’t do them many favors as they face Kansas, Cincinnati, Houston, and Kansas St to end the season.

Army: 8-0

Army has shocked the football world on its way to an undefeated season so far. The Black Knights can solidify themselves amongst playoff contenders if they can pull off an upset against Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium, but a loss may spell the end of their Cinderella run. Following that game Army has matchups against UTSA and the famous Army-Navy game to end the season.

Pitt: 7-1, Kansas State: 7-2, Colorado: 6-2

These teams could all make their Conference championship games with one or two upsets, but their destiny doesn’t entirely sit in their hands. Pitt has the best record but still has the hardest part of their schedule remaining. Kansas State still had a matchup against Iowa State on the table, which gave them a lot more direct agency in their position, but Colorado would have to falter for that game to have any real meaning for Kansas St’s chances.

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