#14 LSU and #11 Alabama Duel in Death Valley Saturday Night
It’s going to be one of the games of the season Saturday night as the LSU Tigers duel with SEC West rivals Alabama in Death Valley, or LSU’s Tiger Stadium for those unaware of the traditions.
Both of these longtime SEC West schools sit at a 6-2 record, and each is looking to keep their CFP hopes alive, especially given their latest AP poll rankings, with LSU coming in at 14th and Alabama 11th. The Tigers are coming off a loss to another SEC West team, though one they usually dispatch much easier. A 38-23 defeat to Texas A&M in College Station last weekend definitely didn’t help their postseason chances, and it also snapped an impressive six-game winning streak after starting this season with a close loss to then-23rd-ranked USC, where they were ranked 13th in Week 1.
Meanwhile, Alabama has shaken off its upset losses to then unranked Vanderbilt and then 11th-ranked Tennessee, but many cracks are still present, especially after their nail-biting victory over unranked South Carolina at home a week before the Tennessee game. LSU, meanwhile, has had no such issues, even after their loss last week. The Tigers look to be in much better shape than the Tide for this weekend’s primetime clash, and it could still be a close game or a dramatic overtime finish, like LSU’s emphatic win over Ole Miss for the Magnolia Bowl back in Week 6.
But each team has its own keys to this weekend’s game, and they happen to be on the same side of the ball. For LSU, it’s making sure their run defense is still in good shape. The Tigers are 40th in the country on rushing yards allowed per game, which is just kinda decent, so there’s a good reason why it could obviously be better. Alabama for their part is 59th on run defense, so that might give LSU’s running backs a bigger field day than most other opponents.
On the offensive running side, Alabama is 40th in the country while the Tigers are 103rd, which is out of 134 total FBS teams so maybe they won’t run all over the Tide as originally thought. But here’s a catch- Alabama didn’t run the ball much against Vanderbilt, something that obviously could’ve helped them avoid trailing the entire time as they did. It was even worse against Tennessee, given that the Vols also have the country’s 7th best rushing offense while also allowing the 4th fewest rushing yards in FBS. You just can’t run the ball against a team like that.
Where LSU shines is undoubtedly their offense, however. The Tigers have the 6th best passing offense in the nation, compared to Alabama, who comes in at 41st. That means QB Garrett Nussmeier should have another strong outing, which would see him yet again eclipse the 200+ passing yards in a game mark, something the redshirt junior has flawlessly done in all eight games this season. And despite the strong passing totals, LSU doesn’t quite equate on rushing yards, as they’ve had triple-digit totals in just 2 of their previous five games, the last being a 128-yard performance by Caden Durham against South Alabama back in Week 5. Most high-ranked teams like LSU would want more consistent and higher outputs.
So that’s why LSU has the edge in a game that they open as 2.5-point underdogs in. As for Alabama, they have an edge in their own defensive strengths. It’s just a matter of how many takeaways they can get their hands on. LSU is in a nine-way tie for the eighth most lost fumbles per game alongside the likes of other powerhouses like Army, Georgia, and Iowa State, all with similar records to LSU’s.
That is one key defensive stat the Tide could no doubt capitalize on and considering they’re in a three-way tie for 5th in the country for takeaways alongside South Carolina and Notre Dame, it may very well be likely you see LSU lose a possession or two come this Saturday night. This game could come down to a few different outcomes- a running slugfest, an aerial assault from LSU while Alabama struggles in the air, especially with their 1.5 interceptions per game but no other kinds of giveaways, or a both-sides-of-the-ball shootout that could end with a slim victory by either side, the difference being a late FG boot.
This game could possibly end with either side scoring a semi-late touchdown, with the following opposing drive being a defensive stop to end the night on a high note. The expectations are pretty high for Alabama anyway, since they’ve dominated this SEC West showdown, winning 8 of the 10 games against LSU, whether it’s been down at Tiger Stadium or back home at Bryant-Denny. To most other fans, a 56-27 edge in a rivalry wouldn’t make it much of one. But for fans in the heart of the Deep South, this game always has and always will matter year after year.
See also: The live tiger mascot returns for LSU ahead of the Alabama clash
