CFP Preview: #8 Ohio State, #9 Tennessee Battle in Columbus
It’s been touted as one of the first round’s biggest matchups. On Saturday night, #8 Ohio State and #9 Tennesee will clash at Ohio Stadium, with the winner facing #1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl next week. It’ll be the final game of Saturday’s tripleheader after Clemson faces Texas and SMU goes up against Penn State. The real reason why this game has garnered so much hype, however, is the fan talk. Tennessee fans are looking to fill Ohio Stadium, even overtaking it, but do the Vols have the advantage over the Buckeyes in this tricky to predict similar seed matchup?
Why Tennessee Knocks Off the Buckeyes
The Vols are in the top 20 in the country when it comes to points per game (34) and yards per game (440), while managing to allow the 4th fewest points per game and 6th fewest opponent yards per game. That’s the good part of this matchup, but Ohio State’s defense is basically the best in the entire country. They allow the fewest opponent points per game (10.9), yards per game (241.5) and they have the lowest opponent red zone scoring percentage (55.2%). The Buckeyes also have a stronger offense, ranking 11th in points/game (35.5), and 30th in yards/game (423.6).
Perhaps that slightly lower statistic may help the Vols pull this one off. It’ll be on the Tennessee defense to prevent Ohio State from making any big plays that would otherwise let them run away with this one. However, the Buckeyes’ offensive and defensive edge gives them a clearer shot. Expect this one to still be a little close, but it will likely turn out in Ohio State’s favor.
Why Ohio State Fends Off the Vols At Home
As mentioned, Ohio State has both a strong offense and defense, something that Tennesee doesn’t quite bring to the table. There is a distinct reason the Buckeyes are a 1 touchdown favorite heading into this one, in addition to being the best rated team this season. Like some other notable CFP entrants, Ohio State had a top 10 strength of schedule in the country, ranking 9th, compared to the likes of #2 seed Georgia, who had the toughest schedule this season. Behind Georgia was #5 seed Texas, and even #7 Notre Dame was ranked as a top team this season. even if their schedule was only the 21st hardest in the country.
The Buckeyes were dominant in their last 3 games before the stunning at home loss to archrival Michigan, which kept them out of the Big Ten championship, but then again, it was only their 2nd loss on the season and their first after picking up 5 consecutive wins, with 3 of those by double digits. Compare that to Tennessee’s last few games, which included a thorough defeat to Georgia and a late escape from in state rivals Vanderbilt, with the Dores nearly knocking off another SEC juggernaut, and you can see why Ohio State is the better prepared team here. Having home field advantage also helps too, of course.
Why This Game Could Be Either High Scoring or Totally Boring
When you have a game between two teams with equally good defenses, you can expect two things to happen. One- it turns into a relatively good offensive battle with one team pulling off a last second winner, like a go ahead FG with less than a minute left. Or two, which is usually the more likely scenario- you get turned off by a defensive slugfest. A low scoring effort where someone breaks through in the final 15 minutes. Most of the conference championship games 2 weeks ago were like that, with only Clemson’s dramatic win over SMU and the back and forth between Oregon and Washington, which ended up having just the Ducks make it and not the Huskies.
SMU and Clemson both made it in, with SMU being the LCQ of the group over Alabama, to many fans’ joy and dismay. The Mustangs face off with another defensive juggernaut in Penn State, while Clemson may see its shortest CFP run in program history when they face Big 12 champion Arizona State. Never discount the Sun Devils- they’re this year’s Cinderella squad alongside SMU.
But back to the main showdown that will happen in snowy and cold Columbus, of which the author was up in not too long ago! Ohio State may have squandered its Big Ten championship hopes with that unfortunate Michigan loss, but there’s no reason why this isn’t a revenge game of sorts. For this team, it’s basically their own little Big Ten championship, albeit against an SEC opponent. It may also be a high-profile bowl game, even if that is technically reserved for next week’s contest, as Oregon awaits the winner in warm and sunny Pasadena.
What Will Ohio State vs Oregon or Tennessee vs Oregon Look Like?
Call this getting a little ahead, but if you were to compare the statistics of the Buckeyes and Ducks or the Vols and Ducks, which team would have the advantage in one of the 2nd round games? Remember, Oregon got a bye thanks to a Big Ten title, and being the #1 overall seed in the entire Playoff, it makes sense they’d skip the gauntlet of an opening round. So does Ohio State have a chance against the Ducks if they make it through to round 2? Unfortunately, not quite.
Oregon is… pretty dangerous, to say the least. They’re in the top 10 more or less in the nation when it comes to how many points they put down and how many yards their webbed feet cover, coming in at 7th and 12th, respectively. Remember, Ohio State was 11th and 30th in those same categories. So it’s not completely hopeless, but statistically, they would be in trouble. And Oregon’s defense is top 10 nationwide as well, ranking 9th in opponent PPG allowing just 18 each contest and 11th in opponent yards per game (309).
Tennesee wouldn’t fare much better. Their defense is tough like Oregon’s but they’d only face the Ducks if they knock off a similarly tough Ohio State team first. And the Vols aren’t really a cold weather team for that matter. Tennessee is usually somewhat cold in the wintertime, but it’s no Ohio level of cold. The upper Midwest of the country gets way more easily frosted over compared to the northernmost part of the Sun Belt.
Related: Browns’ Denzel Ward Has Faith in His Alma Mater
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