There’s a major flaw with the current College Football Playoff system. It can be argued the best position for any CFP team right now is No. 5.
A correctly set up CFP would have the No. 1 team being in the best position to win it all, followed by No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4. There’s still plenty of time for things to shake out, but the best slots for the College Football Playoff are 5, 6, 11, and 12. There are two semifinal berths likely coming from those spots.
The problem with the format is the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds will come from league champions who won’t be able to beat an SEC or Big Ten team that will enter with momentum.
Sitting at No. 5 looks like a good position
Look at the current rankings. No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Penn State, and No. 11 Ole Miss are in much better position than No. 8 Tennessee, No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 10 Alabama, or No. 7 Indiana.
What should be in place is the top four teams in the country getting byes. Instead, Ohio State potentially gets two easy wins before having to play a true top-four team. The Buckeyes should brush aside Boise State before handling a very shaky Miami team.
Well, it might be said that the Buckeyes would then have to play No. 1 Oregon. Yes, that’s a tough game. But the Buckeyes would have the momentum of winning two playoff games. Plus, they would likely need to expend less energy to beat Miami than Oregon would need against Tennessee, assuming the Vols beat Notre Dame.
Based on recent history, and you can take this back many years, any win over an SEC team is likely going to take four full quarters.
Top four teams in CFP bracket won’t all make semifinals
Also, don’t pencil any of the top four teams into the semifinals. There’s a reasonable chance, especially with this being the first year of the CFP, that teams who experience the playoff atmosphere and win that first game will carry the momentum over into the quarterfinals and win there, too.
Under the current CFP setup, the most likely final four is Ohio State versus Oregon and Texas against Penn State. But it’s easy to make an argument that it could be Ole Miss playing Texas on the right, and Tennessee meeting Ohio State on the left.
Although Alabama should beat Indiana, it’s hard to imagine the up-and-down Crimson Tide finding a way past Texas. However, Alabama is still Alabama until someone proves otherwise in the postseason. So the SEC having three teams in the final four is currently within reason as things stand now.
Regardless of how things change over the next few weeks, there are two paths to the CFP semifinals. And they come from spots Nos. 5, 6, 11, 12.
It’s something the CFP should consider changing in the future. And here’s a big reason for it. The current leagues are too big to produce a true conference champion. So what is the big deal about elevating a conference champion to a first-round bye? Sure, let them into the playoffs. But give the top four spots to the four best teams in the country. Even if that’s three from the same league.
This is too big of a show, and too important to college football fans, to have uneven paths to the championship.
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